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Shifting Trends in Congressional Discourse: Evidence vs. Intuition
Congressional speeches in the United States are increasingly characterized by language that prioritizes intuition and supposition over evidence-based reasoning. A recent study employing artificial intelligence to analyze millions of congressional transcripts revealed a significant linguistic trend. The research indicates a move away from words associated with demonstrable facts, such as “proof” and “reason,” and towards terms like “phony” and “doubt” within political discourse. This shift coincides with rising political polarization and a decrease in legislative productivity, according to Stephan Lewandowsky, a researcher at the University of Bristol.
The Rise of Intuition-Based Language in Political Debate
Lewandowsky explains the fundamental difference in perceiving truth: “We can believe that truth emerges from the analysis of evidence, or we can view it as a product of intuition or ‘gut feeling’.” He adds, “These contrasting notions of truth and honesty are reflected in our everyday language.”
AI Analysis of Congressional Speech Patterns
Utilizing a readily available AI language model, Lewandowsky and his team examined the transcripts of approximately 8 million congressional speeches delivered between 1879 and 2022. The analysis compared the vocabulary used in these texts against two defined sets of keywords: 49 representing evidence-based concepts (e.g., “logic” and “reason“) and 35 representing intuition-based concepts (e.g., “suspicion” and “gut“). A score was then calculated for each speech to determine its leaning towards evidence or intuition.
Key Findings: A Turn Towards Intuition
The findings indicated a growing preference for intuition-based language in Congress since the 1970s. Prior to this period, spikes in intuition-based language were also observed during the Gilded Age (1899-1901) and the Great Depression (1933-1935).
- Increasing Intuition: Congress has progressively favored intuition-based language over evidence-based language since the 1970s.
- Historical Parallels: Earlier surges in intuition-based language occurred during periods of significant societal upheaval.
Expert Perspectives on Shifting Language Trends
John Jost of New York University suggests that these results align with broader perceptions of increasing anti-intellectualism, populism, and skepticism towards scientific experts in recent times.
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Renáta Németh from Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary highlights the study’s strength in evaluating the context of word usage, not just frequency. She notes, “These models can discern deeper, often subtle connections between words, even capturing cultural meanings and societal relationships.”
Future Research Directions
Lewandowsky and his colleagues are planning further investigations into similar language shifts among individual lawmakers, analyzing both congressional speeches and social media activity. They also intend to explore comparative trends in other legislative bodies throughout history, including parliamentary speeches from Italy and Germany, to ascertain if these patterns are unique to the US or represent a broader global trend.