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South Africa’s Coalition Under Strain as Budget Vote Exposes ANC-DA Divide
The coalition government in South Africa is facing instability as deep rifts between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the two major parties, were highlighted during a critical vote on the national budget. This political tension raises concerns about the future of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and its ability to maintain economic stability.
DA Opposition to Fiscal Framework
The center-right DA cast their votes against the fiscal framework, a vital element of the budget, after disagreeing with a proposed increase in VAT and advocating for reduced expenditure across all government departments. This stance set them apart from their coalition partners.
ANC Rejects “Austerity Budget” Demands
The ANC, identifying as a center-left party, resisted what they described as the DA‘s push for an “austerity budget.” They accused the DA of demanding drastic spending cuts, which the ANC believed would negatively impact essential public services.
ANC Secures Budget Support from Smaller Parties
Demonstrating political maneuvering, the ANC successfully garnered support from numerous smaller parties, both within and outside the government. This enabled them to pass the fiscal framework through parliament with 194 votes in favor and 182 against, showcasing the fragility of the coalition.
DA Challenges Vote Legality, Future in GNU Uncertain
The DA has initiated legal action, filing court papers to dispute the vote, alleging it was “procedurally flawed.” Senior DA leaders are scheduled to convene to deliberate on the party’s continued participation in the GNU, leaving their future involvement in the coalition government in question.
Expert Analysis on Coalition Stability
Professor William Gumede, an academic at Wits University, indicated to the BBC uncertainty regarding the DA‘s immediate withdrawal from the government. He suggested the party is likely weighing the implications of the budget vote and considering their next steps.
“It will be asking itself whether this is the breaking point or whether it should wait, at least until the court case is concluded,” Prof Gumede commented, highlighting the precarious nature of the coalition.
Background to Coalition Formation
The coalition government was established less than a year prior, following the ANC‘s loss of its parliamentary majority in the elections. This marked the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, when Nelson Mandela led the ANC to power, that they did not hold a majority.
South Africa‘s business sector had actively encouraged the ANC and DA to form a coalition, viewing it as the optimal path to ensure economic stability in a period of political transition.
Escalating Tensions and Accusations
Signaling the DA‘s wavering commitment to the coalition, DA spokesperson Willie Aucamp criticized the ANC for a “serious infraction,” stating that the ruling party had “crossed a line in the sand.”
DA Federal Chair Helen Zille affirmed the party would evaluate all available options and avoid rushing into a decision. “We understand that coalition requires compromise. It’s impossible to have everything your way. However, the ANC also cannot dictate everything, and they are plainly refusing to share authority,” Zille stated, underscoring the power struggle within the coalition.
ANC Condemns “Betrayal”
The ANC adopted a similarly firm stance. Mdumiseni Ntuli, the ANC‘s parliamentary chief whip, accused the DA of “complete betrayal” for diverging from their GNU partners.
“The DA is a member, or was a member,” Ntuli remarked, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding their continued involvement. “I am unsure of their future actions, but the GNU persists,” he added, referencing the ongoing commitment of other parties within the 10-member coalition.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, also challenged the DA, asserting, “It is untenable to be part of a government while opposing its budget,” further intensifying the confrontation.
DA Allies with Populist Opposition on VAT
In a notable development, the DA found itself aligned with South Africa‘s two largest populist opposition entities: former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), in voting against the fiscal framework.
These two parties, known for advocating for nationalization of key economic sectors, are ideologically opposed to the pro-business DA. However, a shared opposition to a VAT increase united them against the ANC‘s budget proposal, reflecting a rare point of convergence across the political spectrum.
The rationale for this unlikely alliance stemmed from a shared concern over the impact of increased VAT on vulnerable populations. As DA leader John Steenhuisen explained, “The ANC is disconnected from reality, if they were responsible for their own household expenses, they would realize the existing cost of living burden.”
ANC Defends VAT Hike as Necessary Revenue Measure
Conversely, the ANC maintained that a VAT increase, set at 0.5% this year and an additional 0.5% the following year, was essential to generate revenue and fund crucial public services such as healthcare and education. They argued this measure was fiscally responsible and necessary for national development.
IFP Support for ANC Undermines DA Alliance
Crucially, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) sided with the ANC in the vote. This action signaled the dissolution of the alliance the IFP had formed with the DA in the lead-up to the election. Their previous collaboration was a strategy to prevent the ANC from retaining power, but this objective ultimately proved unsuccessful.
ActionSA Support Further Isolates DA Stance
ActionSA, a smaller opposition party that originated as a splinter group from the DA, also supported the ANC, further isolating the DA‘s position in the budget vote.
ActionSA stated they had reached an understanding with the ANC wherein the VAT increase would be reconsidered, and alternative revenue generation methods for the government would be investigated.
“[Wednesday’s] adoption of the report on the fiscal framework was merely an initial phase in a complex budgeting process before the ultimate budget approval,” ActionSA clarified in a public statement, suggesting ongoing negotiations and potential amendments.
Public Perception and Economic Challenges
Professor Gumede emphasized the ANC‘s challenge in persuading the public to accept tax increases amid failing public services. “The public perception is unfavorable for the ANC,” he stated to the BBC, highlighting the delicate political situation.
“The DA has utilized the budget as an opportunity to assert influence and project a pro-poor image,” Gumede added, pointing to the strategic dimension of the DA‘s budget opposition.
Broader Legislative Disputes and International Impact
The budget dispute represents the most recent indication of the significant disagreements between the two major coalition partners. The DA is also contesting three other pieces of legislation in court, including the land expropriation act, reflecting a pattern of ideological clashes.
This particular law was a contributing factor to the US President Trump’s administration reducing aid to South Africa, demonstrating international repercussions from South Africa‘s internal policies.
The Trump administration subsequently imposed tariffs of 30% on all South African imports, a measure anticipated to severely impact South Africa‘s already vulnerable economy.
“They have problems in South Africa. We were giving them billions of dollars, and we stopped the funding because there are numerous negative developments in South Africa,” the US president remarked, before naming other nations facing similar aid reductions.
President Ramaphosa’s office issued a statement denouncing the new tariffs as “punitive,” and warned they could “impede trade and shared economic advancement.”
Urgent Need for Coalition Unity
For many South Africans, these tariffs underscore the urgent need for the two major parties to resolve their internal conflicts and collaborate effectively. Failure to do so risks plunging the nation into a deeper economic crisis, especially given the already high unemployment rate exceeding 30%. The stability of the coalition government is seen as crucial for navigating these economic headwinds and ensuring a prosperous future for South Africa.