Importance Score: 75 / 100 🔴
NASA Updates on Asteroid 2024 YR4, Once Dubbed “City Killer”
Space agency NASA has released new information regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, an object previously characterized as a “city killer” due to its potential size and destructive capability. Astronomers briefly observed the space rock before it receded from view and is expected to reappear in 2028 for further monitoring.
Monitoring of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Scientists have been closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4 in recent months, utilizing the advanced James Webb Space Telescope. Initial assessments in December 2023 indicated a 3.1% probability of Earth impact, but subsequent observations have revised this threat level to negligible.
Revised Size Estimates and Potential Impact Scenarios
Experts remain intensely interested in studying this significant celestial body, which could generate “severe devastation” upon Earth impact. Earlier NASA calculations estimated the asteroid’s diameter to be between 130 and 300 feet, an extent capable of collapsing structures and causing widespread damage across urban areas.
Recent data suggests a refined size range for the asteroid, now estimated to be between 174 and 220 feet in diameter. While an Earth impact in 2032 is deemed unlikely, there remains a 1.7% chance of a collision with the Moon.
Orbital projections indicate a subsequent 1.1% probability of an Earth impact around December 22, 2047, just before Christmas. The asteroid is anticipated to become unobservable again around mid-April.
Potential Impact Force of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Impact estimations for 2024 YR4 suggest an energy release equivalent to 15,000,000 tons of TNT. This magnitude of energy would be over 100 times greater than that released by the atomic weapon deployed over Hiroshima in 1945. Smaller asteroids would pose a lesser threat, potentially causing damage ranging from shattered windows to minor structural failures within a city.
Lunar Impact and Expected Meteor Shower
Dr. David Rankin, from the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, indicated a roughly 0.3% chance of a lunar collision. Such an impact, occurring at approximately 31,000 miles per hour, would release energy 343 times greater than the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Despite the potential for destruction, scientists note a positive side effect of a lunar impact: the creation of a spectacular meteor shower visible from Earth. Professor Gareth Collins of Imperial College London stated that the “impact flash of vaporized rock would be visible from Earth, even during daylight hours,” according to New Scientist.