Hezbollah at crossroads after blows from war weaken group

Importance Score: 78 / 100 šŸ”“


Explosive Pagers Target Hezbollah Operatives in Southern Lebanon

In a calculated operation during last year’s Israel-Hezbollah conflict, explosive pagers, covertly planted by Israel, were detonated across Southern Lebanon on September 17th, targeting members of Hezbollah. The attacks, utilizing devices ostensibly meant for emergency communication, resulted in casualties and heightened tensions in the region. This incident marked a turning point in the escalating conflict between Israel and the Lebanon-based Shia Muslim group.

The Pager Incident: A Nurse’s Account

Adam, a Lebanese nurse and Hezbollah member, recounted the harrowing experience of receiving a booby-trapped pager. At approximately 3:30 PM on September 17th, the pager he received at the commencement of his hospital shift began emitting incessant beeps, displaying an ‘alert’ message. These pagers, distributed by Hezbollah to thousands of its members for emergency notifications, became instruments of an elaborate Israeli plot.

ā€œThe pager started beeping non-stop and, on the screen, it said ā€˜alertā€™,ā€ Adam stated, opting for a pseudonym for safety. Believing it to be a group-wide leadership alert, he attempted to read the full message. However, as he manipulated the device, it detonated. “Then suddenly, as I was sitting at my desk,” he recalled, “the pager exploded.”

Adam shared a video recorded by a colleague immediately after his rescue. The footage depicted a blood-streaked room and the remnants of the exploded pager. “I tried to crawl to the door,” he explained, indicating a hole blasted through his desk, “because I had locked it while I changed my clothes.” Amidst the debris, a gruesome discovery: “That’s my finger,” Adam pointed out.

Hezbollah’s Communication Strategy and Israel’s Counter-Plan

Hezbollah, recognized as both a formidable militia and a significant political and social entity in Lebanon, had opted for pagers over smartphones due to concerns about Israeli surveillance. However, these devices were, unbeknownst to Hezbollah, part of a long-term Israeli scheme. Explosive compounds had been secretly integrated into the pagers, designed to be activated remotely on a designated date.

Devastating Injuries and Unwavering Allegiance

The pager explosion inflicted severe injuries on Adam. He lost his thumb and two fingers on his left hand, and sustained damage to another finger on his right. He was blinded in his right eye and suffered partial loss of vision in his left. Despite these life-altering wounds, Adam displayed a photograph taken shortly after the attack, showing his bandaged face. When asked about his reaction to his injuries, Adam expressed unwavering loyalty. “Very good,” he initially responded in English, before elaborating in Arabic, “Because we believe that the wounds are a kind of medal from God. Honouring what we go through fighting a righteous cause.”

Hezbollah’s Diminished Standing and Regional Challenges

Despite outward shows of defiance, Hezbollah’s position has been significantly weakened following Israel’s extensive military campaign in Lebanon, launched in response to the pager attacks. The group faces considerable internal and external pressures.

Challenges Facing Hezbollah:

  • Internal Discontent: Frustration among some supporters due to insufficient reconstruction funds post-conflict.
  • Government Pressure: The newly formed Lebanese government has pledged to disarm Hezbollah.
  • Disrupted Supply Lines: Instability in Syria has impacted weapons and financial support from Iran, Hezbollahā€™s primary ally.

Southern Lebanon: Destruction and Divided Opinions

Visits to communities in Southern Lebanon, heavily impacted by Israeli strikes, revealed a complex landscape of opinions. While overt support for Hezbollah remained visible, dissenting voices, rarely heard by the media, emerged, questioning the conflict and Hezbollah’s future role.

Escalation and Retaliation: The 2023 Conflict

Hezbollah’s origins trace back to the 1980s, formed during the Lebanese civil war in response to Israeli occupation. The group’s stated objective remains the eventual destruction of Israel. After a period of relative calm following the 2006 war, renewed hostilities erupted in 2023 following the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7th. Hezbollah initiated rocket fire into Northern Israel in solidarity with Palestinians, prompting retaliatory Israeli air strikes in Southern Lebanon and mass displacement on both sides of the border.

The Pager Attacks as a Turning Point

The pager bombings marked a critical escalation in the conflict. Exploding in civilian and operative settings, these attacks resulted in approximately a dozen fatalities, including children, and thousands of injuries. The indiscriminate nature of the attacks provoked widespread outrage in Lebanon. Subsequent explosions involving walkie-talkies further heightened fear and uncertainty. A funeral procession for pager victims was disrupted by another explosion, triggering panic and pleas to deactivate electronic devices.

Israel’s Military Response and Hezbollah’s Setbacks

In the aftermath of the pager attacks, Israel launched a sustained bombing campaign and ground incursion into Southern Lebanon. The conflict resulted in approximately 4,000 deaths and 18,000 injuries across Lebanon, significantly weakening Hezbollah. Key Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, the groupā€™s leader for over three decades, were assassinated in targeted air strikes. By late November, a ceasefire agreement, widely perceived as a surrender for Hezbollah, was reached.

Kfar Kila: A Border Town in Ruins

Southern Lebanon, a Shia Muslim stronghold and key support base for Hezbollah, bore the brunt of the conflict. Kfar Kila, once a town of 15,000 residents, was among the first to fall during the Israeli incursion. The stated Israeli objective was to secure the return of displaced residents to Northern Israeli communities. Kfar Kila was left largely obliterated, marked only by Hezbollah flags amidst the wreckage.

Alia, a Kfar Kila resident who returned with her family, struggled to identify her home amidst the ruins. “I only knew that this was my house because of the remains of this plant over there, the roses, and this tree,” she explained, pointing to recognizable fragments amidst the debris. “This is the couch. There, the curtains. That was the living room. And that was the bedroom. That’s my daughter’s bicycle,” she recounted, lamenting, “There’s nothing to recover.”

Reconstruction Challenges and Financial Strain

The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs across Lebanon at $11 billion (Ā£8.5 billion). Hezbollah faces immediate pressure to provide financial aid to war-affected populations to maintain support. While initial assistance, such as $12,000 for a year’s rent for displaced families, has been provided, long-term reconstruction support and business compensation remain uncertain, fueling growing dissatisfaction. Alia, who lost $20,000 in shop stock, expressed concerns about unreimbursed losses.

International Pressure and Hezbollah’s Future

International actors, seeking to weaken Hezbollah, are pressuring Iran, the groupā€™s principal financial and military sponsor, to cut off support. Conditions are being placed on international aid to Lebanon, contingent on government action against Hezbollah. Critics view Hezbollahā€™s weakened state as an opportune moment for disarmament.

Alia voiced resistance to conditional aid: “We don’t want any aid that comes with conditions about our arms… We won’t allow them to take our dignity, our honour, take away our arms just for us to build a house. We’ll build it ourselves.”

Hezbollah’s Domestic Influence Eroded

Despite its supporters’ resolve, Hezbollah’s domestic power has diminished. Prior to the conflict, Hezbollah’s military strength surpassed the Lebanese army, and its political bloc exerted significant influence, often paralyzing governmental decision-making. However, the war has altered this dynamic.

In January, Lebanon elected a new president, Joseph Aoun, ending a two-year political deadlock attributed to Hezbollahā€™s obstruction. Hezbollah, weakened and facing urgent community needs, did not obstruct the election, signaling a shift in its political leverage. President Aoun’s inauguration speech emphasized the Lebanese army’s role as the sole legitimate armed force, a message widely interpreted as directed at Hezbollah.

Iran’s Role and Regional Realities

Hezbollah’s future is closely tied to Iran’s strategic interests. Iran’s rationale for supporting Hezbollah as a deterrent against Israeli attacks, particularly on its nuclear program, has been compromised. Furthermore, other Iranian-backed regional groups are also weakened, and the Syrian conflict has disrupted Iran’s land access to Lebanon. Rearming Hezbollah, even if desired by Iran, will beLogistically challenging.

Succession and Internal Dissent

Naim Qassem succeeded Hassan Nasrallah as Hezbollah leader, though he is perceived as less charismatic and influential. Rumors of internal divisions and rank-and-file dissent are circulating. A Southern Lebanese businessman, expressing anonymity due to security concerns, criticized Hezbollah, despite displaying portraits of its leaders in his office. “The mistakes have been huge,” he asserted, citing Hezbollahā€™s decision to engage in the conflict without adequate planning or consultation. He claimed widespread agreement among supporters: “If Hezbollah don’t do a proper reassessment of the situation… they will destroy themselves and harm us along the way. We brought this destruction on ourselves, and we’re now suffering.”

Ceasefire Terms and Disarmament Prospects

The ceasefire agreement mandated Hezbollahā€™s withdrawal of fighters and weaponry from Southern Lebanon, which a Western official confirmed has largely occurred. While Israel withdrew troops, it maintains positions in disputed areas citing border security. Israeli air strikes targeting alleged Hezbollah affiliates continue, while Lebanon condemns Israel’s ongoing presence and actions as treaty violations.

Discussions regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament are anticipated to be protracted and complex. One proposed solution involves integrating Hezbollahā€™s arsenal under state control and incorporating its fighters into the Lebanese army. However, the businessman warned against hasty disarmament without a comprehensive strategy, emphasizing the reliance of many families on Hezbollah support: “Without a plan, it would be a recipe for internal conflict. It would drive Lebanese to fight against each other.”

Hezbollah declined interview requests for this report.

Adam’s Resilience and Enduring Belief

Adam has resumed his nursing duties, albeit with adjustments due to his injuries. Limited vision prevents night shifts, and shrapnel injuries necessitate frequent breaks. Physiotherapy aids his adaptation to his partially functional left hand.

A framed photograph of Adam holding a pager with his injured hands is prominently displayed in his home. Another image depicts his tattooed hand, bearing a message proclaiming his injuries a “cheap sacrifice” for Hassan Nasrallah. Despite his ordeal, Adam, like many others, remains committed to Hezbollah’s cause and purpose.


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