Importance Score: 40 / 100 🔵
AI-Powered March Madness Bracket Achieves Near-Perfect First Rounds, Falls Short in Championship
The excitement of March Madness has concluded, with the Florida Gators triumphing over Houston in the men’s NCAA championship game and UConn securing the women’s title against South Carolina. While personal aspirations for a bracket pool championship fell short, a noteworthy second-place finish was attained, thanks to an unconventional approach: artificial intelligence. An AI model impressively predicted 28 out of 32 first-round games and 14 out of 16 second-round matchups correctly. ChatGPT maintained a flawless record through the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight rounds, achieving perfect 8-for-8 and 4-for-4 scores, respectively. However, the AI’s performance faltered in the final stages, going 0-for-2 in the Final Four and missing the championship game outcome, ultimately preventing a pool victory.
The complete bracket results are detailed below.
Despite limited expertise in this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, the desire to excel in a bracket pool remained strong. Ironically, this pursuit occurred despite being a UCLA alumnus with a history of attending college basketball games and a dedicated NBA fan (Los Angeles Lakers). However, college basketball engagement was lacking this season.
Undeterred, participation in a March Madness bracket pool was undertaken. While anticipating a first-place finish was unrealistic, achieving second place was an unexpected and welcomed outcome. It’s important to note that pool participants were aware of the AI-driven bracket, and any potential prizes were forfeited.
The following outlines the process and results of utilizing ChatGPT for bracket predictions.
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Utilizing ChatGPT to Generate a March Madness Bracket
Numerous methods exist for employing ChatGPT to complete a March Madness bracket. Several potential approaches, including the chosen strategy, are presented below:
Option 1: Conservative, Favor-Focused Bracket
“Generate a March Madness bracket employing a statistically sound and low-risk strategy, prioritizing favored teams with a limited number of historically plausible upsets.”
Option 2: Balanced Approach with Calculated Upsets
“Construct a March Madness bracket featuring a combination of strong favorites, select calculated upsets, and at least one dark horse contender making a deep tournament run.”
Option 3: High-Risk, Upset-Heavy Bracket
“Develop a March Madness bracket with a bold, upset-oriented approach, emphasizing significant Cinderella stories, major early-round upsets, and at least one unexpected Final Four participant.”
This approach represents a daring strategy.
Regardless of the chosen prompt, adjustments can be made as needed. Follow-up questions are likely to arise, providing opportunities to refine the bracket. Options include prioritizing data-driven selections, incorporating teams with current momentum, considering historical upset trends, or including gut-feeling wild card teams. The inclusion of a Cinderella team is also a viable option to direct ChatGPT towards.
ChatGPT may pose these questions in subsequent responses, so strategic choices are advisable.
A medium-risk prompt was selected for this NCAA bracket.
ChatGPT’s Generated NCAA Bracket
The prompt used: “Complete a full March Madness bracket for me, incorporating a mix of strong favorites, some calculated upsets, and at least one dark horse team advancing deep in the tournament. Include the First Four games. Use this NCAA bracket as a reference: https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket.” This bracket was produced by ChatGPT (version ChatGPT 4o).
Note: Initially, ChatGPT provided inaccurate team selections, necessitating a directive to utilize the official NCAA bracket website as a guide. Additionally, the inclusion of First Four teams had to be specifically requested. Depending on the ChatGPT version used, prompt adjustments may be necessary to ensure accurate results.
Presented below is the complete 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket, featuring the First Four, projected favorites, calculated upsets, and a dark horse team anticipated for a deep run. The accuracy of ChatGPT’s picks for the initial 52 games is also indicated.
First Four
- (16) Alabama State defeats (16) Saint Francis (PA) ✅
- (16) Mount St. Mary’s defeats (16) American ✅
- (11) North Carolina defeats (11) San Diego State ✅
- (11) Texas defeats (11) Xavier ❌
South Region
First Round
- (1) Auburn defeats (16) Alabama State ✅
- (8) Louisville defeats (9) Creighton ❌
- (5) Michigan defeats (12) UC San Diego ✅
- (4) Texas A&M defeats (13) Yale ✅
- (6) Ole Miss defeats (11) North Carolina ✅
- (3) Iowa State defeats (14) Lipscomb ✅
- (7) Marquette defeats (10) New Mexico ❌
- (2) Michigan State defeats (15) Bryant ✅
Second Round
- (1) Auburn defeats (8)
LouisvilleCreighton ✅ - (5) Michigan defeats (4) Texas A&M ✅
- (3) Iowa State defeats (6) Ole Miss ❌
- (2) Michigan State defeats (7)
MarquetteNew Mexico ✅
Sweet 16
- (1) Auburn defeats (5) Michigan ✅
- (2) Michigan State defeats (3) Iowa State ✅
Elite 8
- (1) Auburn defeats (2) Michigan State ✅
East Region
First Round
- (1) Duke defeats (16) Mount St. Mary’s ✅
- (8) Mississippi State defeats (9) Baylor ❌
- (5) Oregon defeats (12) Liberty ✅
- (4) Arizona defeats (13) Akron ✅
- (6) BYU defeats (11) VCU ✅
- (3) Wisconsin defeats (14) Montana ✅
- (7) Saint Mary’s defeats (10) Vanderbilt ✅
- (2) Alabama defeats (15) Robert Morris ✅
Second Round
- (1) Duke defeats (8)
Mississippi StateBaylor ✅ - (4) Arizona defeats (5) Oregon ✅
- (3) Wisconsin defeats (6) BYU ❌
- (2) Alabama defeats (7) Saint Mary’s ✅
Sweet 16
- (1) Duke defeats (4) Arizona ✅
- (2) Alabama defeats (3) Wisconsin ✅
Elite 8
- (1) Duke defeats (2) Alabama ✅
Midwest Region
First Round
- (1) Houston defeats (16) SIU Edwardsville ✅
- (8) Gonzaga defeats (9) Georgia ✅
- (5) Clemson defeats (12) McNeese ❌
- (4) Purdue defeats (13) High Point ✅
- (6) Illinois defeats (11) Texas ✅
- (3) Kentucky defeats (14) Troy ✅
- (7) UCLA defeats (10) Utah State ✅
- (2) Tennessee defeats (15) Wofford ✅
Second Round
- (1) Houston defeats (8) Gonzaga ✅
- (4) Purdue defeats (5)
ClemsonMcNeese ✅ - (3) Kentucky defeats (6) Illinois ✅
- (2) Tennessee defeats (7) UCLA ✅
Sweet 16
- (1) Houston defeats (4) Purdue ✅
- (2) Tennessee defeats (3) Kentucky ✅
Elite 8
- (1) Houston defeats (2) Tennessee ✅
West Region
First Round
- (1) Florida defeats (16) Norfolk State ✅
- (8) UConn defeats (9) Oklahoma ✅
- (12) Colorado State upsets (5) Memphis ✅
- (4) Maryland defeats (13) Grand Canyon ✅
- (11) Drake upsets (6) Missouri ✅
- (3) Texas Tech defeats (14) UNC Wilmington ✅
- (10) Arkansas upsets (7) Kansas ✅
Second Round
- (1) Florida defeats (8) UConn ✅
- (12) Colorado State upsets (4) Maryland ❌
- (3) Texas Tech defeats (11) Drake ✅
- (10) Arkansas upsets (2) Tennessee ✅
Sweet 16
- (1) Florida defeats (12) Colorado State ✅
- (3) Texas Tech defeats (10) Arkansas ✅
Elite 8
- (1) Florida defeats (3) Texas Tech ✅
Final Four
- (1S) Auburn defeats (1W) Florida ❌
- (1E) Duke defeats (1MW) Houston ❌
National Championship
- (1E) Duke defeats (1S) Auburn (74-69) ❌
—
In the opening round, ChatGPT achieved a 28 out of 32 prediction rate, successfully identifying significant upsets, including all three in the West region. The second round also demonstrated strong performance with 14 out of 16 correct picks, accurately forecasting 10th-seeded Arkansas as the Cinderella team advancing to the Sweet 16. ChatGPT maintained a perfect record in the Sweet Sixteen, going 8 for 8, and continued this streak in the Elite Eight with a 4 for 4 score. However, performance declined in the later stages, with ChatGPT going 0 for 2 in the Final Four and incorrectly predicting the Championship outcome.
Overall, the AI achieved an 86% accuracy, correctly predicting 54 out of 63 games, surpassing expected personal bracket performance.
ChatGPT’s Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction
While the NCAA women’s basketball tournament may receive less widespread attention than the men’s event, bracket pools exist, and ChatGPT can be utilized with a similar prompt to generate predictions. Despite not participating in a women’s bracket pool, ChatGPT was tasked with creating a bracket for informational purposes, using the prompt:
Prompt: “Create a complete women’s March Madness bracket for me, incorporating a blend of strong favorites, a few calculated upsets, and at least one dark horse team making a deep run. Ensure inclusion of the First Four. Use this guide: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/basketball-women/d1/2025“
ChatGPT’s Prediction:
Note: Abbreviated to final predictions.
“This bracket integrates:
- Favorites: South Carolina, UCLA, South Carolina, UConn, Texas
- Calculated Upsets: Louisville over Arizona, UConn over Texas
- Dark Horse: Louisville’s deep run
UCLA is projected to win the championship against South Carolina in a West Coast final.”
Although UCLA reached the Final Four, the actual National Championship game featured UConn and South Carolina (correctly identified as favorites by ChatGPT), with UConn securing the victory.
2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Schedule
- First Four: March 18-19
- First round: March 20-21
- Second round: March 22-23
- Sweet 16: March 27-28
- Elite Eight: March 29-30
- Final Four: April 5
- NCAA championship game: April 7