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Canada’s Election Focuses on US Relations, Climate Debate Takes Backseat
As the looming presence of US President Donald Trump shapes the upcoming Canadian federal election narrative, discussions regarding Canada’s contribution to global warming have been largely diminished. The dominant election discourse is currently centered on economic strategies and navigating the complexities of Canada-US relations, overshadowing crucial environmental policy considerations.
Energy Infrastructure at the Forefront
The leading political parties are both advancing proposals for significant energy infrastructure development, reflecting Canada’s strategic aim to diversify its economic partnerships and lessen its reliance on the United States. This pivot in focus signifies a shift from previous election cycles where environmental concerns held a more prominent position.
Contrasting Energy Visions: Liberals and Conservatives
Liberal Party Platform
The Liberal party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, is campaigning on a platform that envisions Canada becoming a global leader in both traditional and renewable energy sectors. Their strategy emphasizes a dual approach, supporting both existing energy industries while fostering growth in green technologies.
Conservative Party Stance
Conversely, the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre, advocates for policies aimed at revitalizing the oil and gas industry and eliminating the federal industrial carbon tax. This approach underscores a commitment to bolstering Canada’s traditional energy sector and reducing financial burdens on industry.
Shift in Election Priorities
This election marks a notable departure from the 2021 campaign, where environmental issues were paramount concerns for voters. The current political climate reflects a change in public priorities, with economic and international relations taking center stage.
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Diminished Consensus on Green Transition
In the preceding election, a general agreement existed between the major parties regarding the necessity for Canada to swiftly transition towards a green economy. This consensus was evidenced by the passage of net-zero emissions legislation in June 2021.
However, this sense of bipartisan unity has eroded considerably in the current political landscape, highlighting a growing divergence in approaches to environmental policy.
Carney’s Climate Advocacy and Policy Adjustments
Mark Carney, who assumed leadership of the Liberal party and the Prime Minister’s office in early March, possesses a well-established international reputation as a champion of climate action.
His background includes prominent roles such as Governor of the Bank of England, UN Special Envoy on climate action and finance, and Co-Chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, a significant outcome of the COP26 climate summit.
Despite this strong environmental advocacy background, one of Carney’s initial actions as Prime Minister was to abolish the consumer carbon levy.
This carbon tax, a signature climate policy of the then-governing Liberals, was implemented in 2019 and imposed additional costs on consumers for the use of fossil fuel products.
The carbon levy proved unpopular with segments of the population and became a focal point of criticism from the Conservatives, who attributed it to the increasing cost of living. Pierre Poilievre frequently labeled his political opponent as “Carbon Tax Carney” in campaign rhetoric.
Political Reactions to Carbon Tax Repeal
Opinions diverge on the political wisdom of repealing the carbon tax. Some political analysts suggest it was a strategic maneuver, while others view it as a misstep.
Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub and a member of Canada’s Net Zero Advisory Body, commented, “By making the removal of the carbon price one of your first actions, you are implicitly accepting the narrative that climate change policy is excessively expensive and detrimental to our economy. This is a misleading representation of the actual situation.”
She further added, “I believe there is a missed opportunity to establish a revised narrative framework around this issue during the election campaign.”
Liberal Energy Strategy: Pragmatism and Green Investment
Carney’s electoral strategy on energy is centered on transforming Canada into a “global superpower in both clean and conventional energy.”
He emphasizes a practical approach, with campaign messaging focused on accelerating green energy initiatives and promoting sustainable transportation and building practices. While details remain somewhat broad, he has also advocated for investments in carbon capture technologies.
Shifting Public Concerns
Several factors have contributed to a diminished emphasis on climate change in the current political discourse.
Public opinion surveys indicate a decline in Canadian concerns about climate change since late 2023, as anxieties related to inflation, energy costs, and housing affordability have risen to the forefront. Economic pressures are now weighing more heavily on voters’ minds.
Geopolitical Influences: Ukraine War and Resource Demand
The ongoing war in Ukraine has also amplified the significance of Canada’s substantial natural resources, including oil, gas, and critical minerals.
Mark Winfield, a professor at York University, noted, “We have witnessed a succession of geopolitical allies approaching us, expressing their need for Canada to become a reliable and geopolitically secure supplier of primary resource commodities, as an alternative to Russia.”
He further explained, “This has introduced a new dynamic, distinct from previous elections, as nations seek stable resource partners amidst global instability.”
Poilievre’s Focus: Cost of Living and Energy Expansion
Pierre Poilievre is campaigning to replace Carney as Prime Minister, primarily focusing on cost-of-living issues. His campaign also highlights stricter law enforcement policies and addresses what he terms “woke” cultural issues.
Poilievre, whose party enjoys strong support in energy-rich regions of Canada, is advocating for a significant expansion of the oil and gas sectors, coupled with the elimination of the carbon tax for industrial operations.
While maintaining a degree of ambiguity regarding his commitment to Canada’s net-zero emissions targets, he has suggested that substituting “dirty coal” from nations like India with “cleaner” Canadian oil and gas would be a more environmentally sound global strategy.
Professor Winfield suggests that the Conservative proposals to expand oil and gas production are likely to resonate with voters, regardless of the long-term environmental and economic implications.
He remarked to the BBC that this stance appears to be more of a “principled reaction to Trump, rather than a thoroughly considered analysis of the climate consequences or economic feasibility.”
US Relations and Energy Security
Irrespective of climate and energy debates, a central question for voters in this election is which leader is best equipped to manage relations with a potentially confrontational US President.
This concern is particularly relevant to the oil and gas industry, given Canada’s close energy ties with the United States.
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US, with approximately 90% of Canadian crude oil production exported southward. Therefore, the imposition of energy tariffs by the US could have severe repercussions for Canadian jobs and the national economy.
During a recent election debate, Carney stated, “Our relationship with the US has fundamentally changed. Pipelines are now a matter of national security for us.”
This anxiety over dependence on the US has reignited interest in constructing pipelines to transport oil and gas from western Canada to eastern provinces, facilitating exports to diverse international markets.
A prior initiative, the Energy East pipeline project, was abandoned in 2017 due to various factors, including significant public opposition and regulatory obstacles.
In the current election campaign, both the Liberals and Conservatives have pledged to expedite the development of “energy corridors.” However, Carney’s position on pipeline support has fluctuated, reflecting the political sensitivity of the issue, particularly among environmental advocates.
He is attempting to navigate a complex political balance, aiming to position himself as both a defender of Canadian interests against potential US pressures and a proponent of climate action.
Climate Commitments vs. Economic Realities
The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that insured losses related to weather events in 2024 amounted to C$8.5 billion, a threefold increase compared to 2023. This underscores the growing economic impact of climate change within Canada.
Despite these escalating climate-related costs, the dominant discourse from the leading parties in the election campaign is advocating for a substantial role for fossil fuels in Canada’s economic future. This approach may create significant challenges in meeting Canada’s stated climate commitments.
Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the Bloc Québécois, has criticized both Carney and Poilievre for what he perceives as “climate change denial.”
During a recent debate, Blanchet asserted, “I apologize for disrupting your narrative, gentlemen, but you are presenting unrealistic scenarios” regarding the feasibility of “clean” oil and gas.
Canada has pledged internationally to reduce carbon emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030.
As of 2023, Canada’s carbon emissions have only decreased by 8.5% since the 2005 baseline.
Regardless of the election outcome, the next government will face a considerable challenge in reconciling economic and energy policies with Canada’s climate objectives.
Canadians will head to the polls on April 28th.