Importance Score: 75 / 100 🔴
Selecting the Next Pope: Potential Candidates and an Unpredictable Process
The selection of the **next pope** is a momentous decision, with the potential for widespread influence across the **Catholic Church** and its approximately 1.4 billion adherents globally. The upcoming process for choosing the next Pontiff is anticipated to be both open and challenging to predict, for a variety of reasons.
The **College of Cardinals** convenes in a **conclave** within the Sistine Chapel to deliberate and subsequently vote for potential candidates until a new leader is chosen.
A significant majority, 80%, of the **cardinals** with voting rights were appointed by Pope Francis. This means many of them are participating in a papal election for the first time, bringing a diverse and increasingly global outlook. Historically, Europeans have constituted the majority of cardinal electors, but for this conclave, less than half will be from Europe. While Pope Francis appointed most electors, they represent a spectrum of viewpoints, not solely aligned with “progressive” or “traditionalist” perspectives.
These factors contribute to making the prediction of the next Papal successor more complex than in previous elections. Will the cardinals opt for a candidate from Africa or Asia, or might they favor a seasoned figure from the Vatican administration? Several names are frequently cited as potential successors to Pope Francis, and more contenders may emerge as discussions progress.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Nationality: Italian
Age: 70
Cardinal Parolin, a soft-spoken Italian, served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State under Pope Francis, a role that effectively made him the Pope’s principal advisor and head of the Roman Curia, the Church’s central administrative body. Having functioned as the Pope’s effective deputy, he is widely regarded as a leading contender.
Some observers believe he is more inclined to prioritize diplomatic engagement and a global perspective over strict adherence to Catholic doctrine. Critics view this as a drawback, whereas supporters consider it a strength essential for navigating contemporary global issues.
However, he has voiced criticism regarding the global legalization of same-sex marriage, notably describing a pivotal 2015 vote supporting it in the Republic of Ireland as “a defeat for humanity.”
Despite being favored by some predictors, Cardinal Parolin is likely aware of the Italian adage highlighting the uncertainty of papal succession: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” Historically, Italians have held the papacy in 213 out of 266 instances. While there hasn’t been an Italian pope in 40 years, the Church’s leadership base has shifted significantly away from Italy and Europe, potentially making another Italian papacy less likely in the immediate future.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Nationality: Filipino
Age: 67
Cardinal Tagle is a prominent candidate and potentially the first Asian Pope. Unlike Cardinal Parolin, he possesses extensive pastoral experience, having dedicated decades to active Church leadership among communities, as opposed to primarily diplomatic or legal roles within the Vatican.
The Catholic Church holds immense influence in the Philippines, where approximately 80% of the population is Catholic. The country currently has a record five cardinals, potentially forming a significant voting bloc in support of Cardinal Tagle.
He is generally considered a moderate figure within the Catholic context and has been termed the “Asian Francis” due to his commitment to social concerns and empathy for migrants, traits shared with the current Pontiff.
Aligning with the Church’s core teaching that life begins at conception, he has opposed abortion rights, characterizing them as “a form of murder,” and has also spoken against euthanasia.
Nevertheless, in 2015, during his tenure as Archbishop of Manila, Cardinal Tagle urged the Church to re-evaluate its “severe” stance towards gay individuals, divorcees, and single mothers. He noted that past rigidity had caused lasting harm and left individuals feeling “branded,” emphasizing the need for compassion and respect for each person.
Cardinal Tagle was considered a potential candidate for the papacy as early as the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis. When asked a decade ago about suggestions he could be the next Pope, he reportedly responded, “I treat it like a joke! It’s funny.”
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Nationality: Congolese
Age: 65
The possibility of the next Pope being from Africa is significant, particularly given the substantial growth of the Catholic Church across the continent. Cardinal Ambongo, from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), stands out as a leading candidate.
He has served as Archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years and was elevated to cardinal by Pope Francis. He holds culturally conservative views, explicitly opposing blessings for same-sex unions, stating that “unions of persons of the same sex are considered contradictory to cultural norms and intrinsically evil.”
In the DRC, where Christianity is the dominant religion, Christians have faced violence and persecution from groups linked to Islamic State. Against this challenging backdrop, Cardinal Ambongo is seen as a strong advocate for the Church and its followers.
However, in a 2020 interview, he expressed support for religious diversity, commenting, “Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We are going to work with them. But everyone has to keep their own identity.” Such remarks might raise questions among some cardinals regarding the extent of his embrace of the Church’s global missionary mandate.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson
Nationality: Ghanaian
Age: 76
Should Cardinal Turkson be chosen by his peers, he would hold the notable distinction of becoming the first African pope in 1,500 years. Similar to Cardinal Ambongo, he has indicated a lack of personal ambition for the position. “I’m not sure whether anyone does aspire to become a Pope,” he told the BBC in 2013.
When asked if Africa’s growing Catholic population presented a strong case for the next Pope to be from the continent, he responded that the Pope should not be selected based on statistics, as “those types of considerations tend to muddy the waters.”
He became the first Ghanaian to be appointed a cardinal in 2003 under Pope John Paul II. Like Cardinal Tagle, Cardinal Turkson was considered a potential Papal candidate in 2013, where bookmakers even listed him as the favorite prior to the voting.
Known for his energetic demeanor, Cardinal Turkson previously played in a funk band and is a guitarist. Consistent with many cardinals from Africa, his theological stance leans conservative.
Nevertheless, he has opposed the criminalization of consensual same-sex relationships in African nations, including his native Ghana. In a 2023 BBC interview, while Ghana’s parliament debated a bill imposing harsh penalties on LGBTQ+ individuals, Turkson stated his view that homosexuality should not be treated as a criminal offense.
In 2012, he drew criticism for presenting a video at a Vatican meeting of bishops that was perceived by some as making fear-mongering predictions about the spread of Islam in Europe; he later apologized for the presentation.