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US and China Engage in Space Race to the Moon and Mars
During a Senate hearing for his confirmation as NASA Administrator, Jared Isaacman and Senator Ted Cruz engaged in an extensive discussion regarding China’s growing space ambitions. Both expressed strong opinions emphasizing the urgency for the United States to return astronauts to the lunar surface before China achieves a similar feat. Isaacman further broadened this objective, suggesting concurrent efforts toward crewed missions to Mars.
The Enduring Lunar Ambition
The concept of a space race, reminiscent of the 1960s lunar landings, persists. While politically appealing, this paradigm may not be optimal for either space development or national strategic interests. Whether considering commercial ventures like resource extraction, strategic objectives such as lunar orbit control, or scientific pursuits including a far-side lunar observatory or a moon base, future lunar activity will be largely robotic. This era will be defined by sophisticated technology including augmented reality, telerobotics, quantum communication, and artificial intelligence. China is currently at the forefront in robotic lunar missions and the progression towards establishing a lunar base.
Over the past decade, China has successfully executed two lunar sample return missions utilizing rovers, including a groundbreaking mission to the far side of the moon. The United States has yet to undertake a robotic lunar sample return mission. Moreover, China has commenced deployment of lunar communication infrastructure and initiated preliminary steps towards constructing the envisioned International Lunar Research Station. Concurrently, the U.S. canceled its only planned lunar rover and experienced mixed outcomes with several attempted small satellite missions by emerging companies, with only one achieving success with a brief two-week operational period.
Mars Exploration: A Delayed US Response
Regarding Mars, the United States has postponed its Mars Sample Return initiative despite the valuable collection of samples already gathered by the Perseverance rover. In contrast, China has expedited its timeline for a Mars Sample Return mission, targeting a launch in 2028.
Rhetoric vs. Reality in Human Spaceflight
Public pronouncements from leaders like former President Trump, Elon Musk, and Administrator-designate Isaacman emphasize the U.S.’s commitment to human missions to Mars. However, these assertions often overlook crucial engineering and scientific prerequisites, intentionally or unintentionally. Notably absent from these discussions are critical factors such as acquiring precursor knowledge and conducting thorough robotic testing for a Mars sample return endeavor. Furthermore, the challenges associated with the toxic Martian surface, the significant health risks of extended interplanetary travel, navigating landing heavy vehicles carrying humans through the extremely thin Martian atmosphere, the necessity of closed-loop ecological life support systems, and the extensive series of rendezvous, in-orbit docking, and transfers needed for validation remain largely unaddressed.
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Addressing these challenges necessitates a robotic Mars Sample Return mission – an element seemingly undervalued by NASA, as evidenced by its omission from their Moon-to-Mars architecture, and by policymakers, given its absence from Senate confirmation hearings. China is poised to surpass the U.S. in achieving Mars Sample Return. Regrettably, there are no apparent plans for collaborative efforts in either scientific research or mission development to enhance the U.S. program.
Rethinking Space Utilization: Robotics and Teleoperation
If the focus of lunar endeavors shifted from symbolic “footprints” to practical development and utilization, maintaining astronauts in orbit to remotely operate instruments, vehicles, and machinery on the lunar surface would be a more efficient approach. This strategy would enable greater surface operations, accomplished more rapidly and at substantially lower costs. Scientific investigations, including establishing astronomical observatories, alongside technological advancements in areas like drilling and resource extraction, are inherently robotic tasks. These endeavors would progress more swiftly via teleoperation than if constrained by the complexities of integrating human-support systems within the harsh lunar or Martian environments.
Focusing Astronaut Capabilities in Orbit
With astronauts positioned in orbit, they could concentrate on their core strengths – analysis and control – rather than being encumbered by extravehicular activities in spacesuits and life support concerns. If the paramount objective of a Mars race is expediting human arrival, diverting resources and focus to the lunar surface, with its vastly different entry, descent, landing, and environmental conditions, is counterproductive. Instead, preparations should prioritize long-duration spaceflights, initially in lunar orbit, followed by missions extending beyond Earth’s orbit. The premise that a lunar base serves as essential preparation for Mars missions is as logically sound as suggesting a trip to a regional town adequately prepares one for a Himalayan expedition.
Symbolic Goals vs. Pragmatic Space Cooperation
Human spaceflight objectives often carry symbolic weight. The U.S. achieved a significant symbolic victory a half-century ago. The U.S. should now leverage its extensive decades-long history of scientific and technological leadership to foster a novel form of space collaboration, integrating human and robotic capabilities for exploration of other celestial bodies. However, current trends seemingly indicate a contrary direction, with the previous administration appearing to de-emphasize scientific pursuits (despite Administrator-designate Isaacman’s stated support for science programs) and robotic exploration missions, notably including the Mars Sample Return. The absence of a Mars Sample Return initiative strongly suggests a lack of preparedness for eventual human missions to Mars.