GOP leaders raise alarm bells over a Florida special election in a deep-red district

Republican Leaders Express Concern Over Fundraising in Florida Special Election

Senior Republican figures have reportedly expressed private alarm regarding the substantial fundraising deficit confronting their candidate, Randy Fine, in a special House election within a reliably Republican Florida district. Consequently, they have intervened to bolster his campaign in the final stages.

GOP Leaders Rally Donors

House Republican leaders have recently contacted donors, urgently seeking financial contributions to support the race for the congressional seat formerly held by Michael Waltz, now serving as President Donald Trump’s national security advisor. This information comes from sources familiar with the outreach. Furthermore, Randy Fine, a state senator, has personally appealed to lobbyists and donors based in Florida for an immediate influx of funds, according to sources privy to these discussions, ahead of the April 1 election.

Confidence in Victory Despite Fundraising Gap

While party leaders in both Washington and Florida remain ultimately confident in Fine’s prospects for victory, Republicans are reportedly frustrated by the necessity to intervene in a district that favored Trump by a significant 30-point margin in the last election cycle.

Representative Richard Hudson, R-N.C., head of the House GOP’s campaign efforts, stated that Fine “needs to improve” his fundraising performance. However, Hudson expressed confidence that Republicans would retain the seat and indicated that the National Republican Congressional Committee was not expected to allocate funds to the race.

“I would have preferred our candidate had raised funds at a quicker pace and launched television advertisements sooner,” Hudson told NBC News on Monday. “But he is taking the necessary actions. He is currently airing ads. We anticipate winning this seat. I am not concerned at all.”

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Fine’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Fundraising Disparity

Fine has been significantly outpaced in fundraising by his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, a teacher, who has amassed an impressive $9.7 million compared to Fine’s $561,000, based on fundraising reports submitted last week to the Federal Election Commission. Fine recently began airing his first television advertisement last week as part of a joint media purchase with the Florida Republican Party, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm.

Fine’s Financial Contributions and PAC Support

In recent days, Fine has contributed $600,000 of his personal funds to his campaign. FEC filings also reveal contributions to Fine from Political Action Committees (PACs) affiliated with Senator Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Republican Representatives Byron Donalds of Florida, Greg Murphy of North Carolina, Jeff Crank of Colorado, and Ben Cline of Virginia.

Trump’s Endorsement Reaffirmed

Trump, who initially endorsed Fine prior to the January primary, reaffirmed his endorsement in a Truth Social post last week. Trump also promoted Republican Jimmy Patronis, who is competing in an April 1 special election in Florida’s 1st District to succeed former GOP Representative Matt Gaetz, on Monday, encouraging his supporters to vote.

Trump Allies Guiding Fine Campaign

Figures within Trump’s political sphere are directly advising Fine’s campaign. Chris Grant, Fine’s lead consultant, previously worked for the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. during the 2024 election cycle. Tony Fabrizio, his primary pollster, has a long-standing working relationship with Trump, including in 2024. Rapid Loop Consulting, a firm co-founded by James Blair, White House deputy chief of staff, is consulting for a super PAC backing Fine’s campaign. Blair is no longer associated with the firm, which is currently managed by his former business partner, Ryan Smith.

Vacant Seat and Narrow Republican Majority

Florida’s 6th Congressional District has been vacant since January 20, following Waltz’s resignation from Congress to become Trump’s national security advisor. This has left House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., with a historically slim majority in the House.

Fine’s Reputation and Campaign Performance

Randy Fine is known for a contentious reputation, even among Florida Republicans. For those familiar with his political career, his current underperformance in a reliably Republican district is not entirely unexpected.

Candidate Quality and Party Support

“This race demonstrates the importance of candidate quality,” stated a veteran Florida GOP operative, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Randy will likely win due to the district’s Republican leaning and the late influx of significant funding. However, this situation illustrates a case of the Trump team essentially carrying him to victory.”

Another long-time Florida Republican commented that, at the state level, “there would be no regret among Republicans if Fine were to lose despite being favored,” while acknowledging the critical importance of a Republican victory due to the party’s narrow House majority.

Patronis Also Outraised in Separate Race

Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and the Republican candidate seeking to replace Gaetz, has similarly been significantly outraised by his Democratic opponent. Patronis raised $1.1 million compared to gun control activist Gay Valimont’s $6.4 million in the most recent fundraising period.

Lower Concern for 1st District Race

However, the 1st District race has not generated the same level of concern, owing to Patronis’ stronger fundraising and the district’s even stronger Republican inclination. Trump carried this district by 37 points, according to election results data from NBC News’ Decision Desk.

Democrats Highlight Fundraising Gaps

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., asserted that these fundraising disparities indicate that “the American people are not embracing the Republican platform.”

“These districts are so reliably Republican that ordinarily there would be no expectation of close races. However, it is almost guaranteed that the Democratic candidates in both of these Florida special elections will significantly exceed expectations,” Jeffries told reporters.

Republican Groups Increase Spending

Republicans have recently intensified efforts to match Democratic spending on Florida media outlets. Defend American Jobs, a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry, and Conservative Fighter PAC, an outside group, have both launched advertisements in these races within the past week, according to AdImpact.

Trump Endorsements Featured in Ads

Both groups have prominently featured Trump’s endorsements of Fine and Patronis in their advertisements.

Strategist’s Perspective

“I have not heard genuine concerns that either candidate is going to lose,” said one GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the races. “But there are definitely concerns that they are underperforming and whether this is an early indication of broader trends in this election cycle.”