Marvel may be the current kings of the worldwide box office, but can they really rule at the upcoming Oscars? Ever since Black Panther smashed all expectations back in March, there has been constant campaigning for it to be recognised at awards season. Whether it even deserves such accolades is another question, but does it realistically stand a chance artistically, or even simply in popularity, with Oscars voters? Will the king of Wakanda take the crown on February 25? More importantly, does he deserve to?
Black Panther is undoubtedly an important movie in Hollywood history.
It completely obliterated any lingering prejudices that a black leading star and predominantly black cast could draw in wide mainstream audiences. This was a total game changer for all future movie making. For this alone, it certainly deserves praise and admiration.
It is also a well-made and entertaining blockbuster with some surprisingly thoughtful and subversive commentaries which transcend any black identity narratives and consider the purest essence of heroism and villainy. But is it worthy of a Best Picture Oscar?
The bookies have no doubt about its chances, and I would agree.
Going in, it seems obvious that Hollywood is sending a powerful message about diversity, representation and inclusion. However, even this is not enough to boost Black Panther’s chances. Of the eight nominated movies, BlacKKKlansman, Green Book and Roma also deal with race-related themes.
Following today’s nominations, the latest odds are clear about the Best Picture line-up.
Ladbrokes, for example, has Roma comfortably ahead of the pack on Evens, with the closest rival being Green Book at 4/1.
The Favourite stands an outside chance at 8/1, while A Star Is Born and Blackkklansman (both early favourites when they were released last year) slipping down to 10/1.
Black Panther and the other overwhelming crowd favourite Bohemian Rhapsody are both currently on 16/1, with Vice well adrift on 33/1.
Black Panther deserves all the attention it gets, but I would suggest it is not even the best action or superhero movie of the year. The titanic Avengers Endgame juggles immensely complicated multiple storylines and staggeringly complex visuals, and still also manages to engage and pack a huge emotional punch. Disney did it a huge and cynical disservice by not nominating it in a single Oscars category.
As for any chances of a last-minute upset, the last two years have both seen the Best Picture favourite unseated on the night.
Last year, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was a huge favourite going into the ceremony with the BAFTA under its belt and many bookies offering Evens on the outcome. The Shape of Water pulled a surprise upset on the night but was already the second favourite with considerable prior awards season success of its own.
In 2017 La La Land was the clear favourite but was pipped to the post, following that notorious envelope disaster, by Moonlight. However, again, Moonlight was still the second favourite going in.
Black Panther seems unlikely to surge from joint fifth favourite, however many famous voices join the campaign. The King of Wakanda has his throne and enjoyed an impressive reign at the box office and with critics. Oscar inclusion should be more than enough to cap an incredible debut.