Political footage faked by AI is talked about as an imminent threat to US democracy. There are good reasons to think it’s not a big problem yet, says Tim Hwang

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There’s no doubt that recent demonstrations of how machine learning can generate believable fakes are striking. From uncanny simulated voices to fabricated videos of political leaders, it is natural to worry that these techniques will make it much easier to manipulate political discourse and public opinion.

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But, it’s worth taking a step back. Just because a technological capability exists does not mean that it will be widely used, or that it will make a serious impact. In this case, there …