WASHINGTON — Texas is firing the starting gun on this year’s midterm elections Tuesday with a slate of primaries that will offer some of the first hard data on the mood of the electorate under President Donald Trump.
These aren’t special elections, like the one Alabama last year, or off-year elections, like the ones in Virginia in November, but the first official time voters get a chance to cast ballots in the 2018 midterms.
Both parties will be watching closely to see what’s happening within their base of supporters, and to get a glimpse at the enthusiasm gap that Democrats are hoping to exploit this year.
So far, early voting data suggests that gap is wide. The state’s 15 largest counties have seen a surge in the Democratic vote that dramatically exceeds growth on the Republican side.
“The Texas primary election offers the latest, and perhaps strongest evidence to date of an impending Democratic wave that could reach much further into traditionally red states than previously thought,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm.
Historically, primary turnout has not necessarily correlated with general election turnout, but the data has nonetheless encouraged Democrats in a deep red state they’ve long dreamed of turning blue.
“We need to see the final numbers to be certain,” said Texas-based GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak. “But it likely shows high Democratic enthusiasm which should be a concern for the GOP for the midterms.”
Some well-known names will appear on the ballot, including Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
He’s expected to cruise through his primary, but Texas Democrats are hoping that Rep. Beto O’Rourke will convince doubters that the challenger — a former punk rocker who has been stumping across the state in his pickup truck — can give Cruz a real run for his money in November.
Meanwhile, a scion of the Bush family, George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is facing a primary in his bid for another term as Land Commissioner.
Bush is favored over challenger Jerry Patterson, but he may be forced into a May 22nd runoff election if he does not clear the 50 percent threshold Tuesday. Texas has been friendly to the Bushes in the past, but in the Trump era, the family’s name may not carry the cache it used to.
In the state’s 36 congressional races, both parties are wading through some seriously crowded primaries.
Some, like an spawling 18-way GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Lamar Smith, are playing out in safe seats and are unlikely to have much consequence in November.
But others will determine the candidates in some of the nation’s top battlegrounds for control of the House.
For Democrats, all eyes will be on the 7th Congressional District, outside Houston, where party officials in Washington have been at war with one of their own candidates.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sparked outrage on the left when it publicly attacked Democrat Laura Moser with opposition research.
The DCCC concluded Moser, who is well known to activists for her anti-Trump “resistance” work, is deeply flawed as a general election candidate after they discovered a 2014 op-ed she wrote saying she would “sooner have my teeth pulled out without anesthesia” than move to a family ranch in Paris, Texas.
Hillary Clinton won the district, currently held by GOP Rep. John Culberson, so Democrats think they have a strong chance at flipping it.
While Texas gets an early start, primaries will continue all the way through September. Next up is Illinois on March 20.
