Relations between Poland and the EU fell to new lows earlier this month after the European Commission triggered Article 7 of the EU Treaty in response to the Polish government’s planned judicial overhaul, which has been dubbed a “grave threat” to the independence of courts by a European human rights watchdog.
Critics believe the planned reforms would rig the courts because they would allow officials to install politically-appointed judges.
However, it would require a majority vote of 22 countries from the 28 EU members to begin and investigation and all other members would have to agree to remove Warsaw’s voting rights.
Hungary, a key Warsaw ally, has already vowed not to vote for Poland to lose its EU voting rights as the two countries continue to support each other in the face of increasing pressure from western EU states for more integration.
Hungary, meanwhile, is embroiled in its own row with Brussels. In December the European Commission referred Budapest to the European Court of Justice over Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s “ongoing assault on political freedoms”.
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Both countries, as well as the Czech Republic, have declined to shelter asylum seekers following the migrant crisis and have also refused to take in any refugees under the bloc’s mandatory quota scheme, disputing the fact it was adopted by a qualified majority vote and citing security concerns.
Increasingly hostile relations between the east and the west will likely please Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has already settled a deal with the Hungarian leader to expand its Soviet-era nuclear power station at Paks as the Kremlin looks to assert more influence over disillusioned EU members.
The deal is an obvious defeat for the EU, which has spent years trying to reduce the dependence of its eastern members on Russian energy.
Now, some economists have argued the upcoming Brexit talks in 2018 may be significantly less arduous than attempting to settle the deepening rift between Brussels and the EU member states in Eastern Europe.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told the Telegraph: “The risk of fissures in the EU, particularly on its eastern flank, are a bigger worry than Brexit. There’s a growing sense that Brexit is an issue that’s manageable.
“The far bigger issue in the EU is if they try to come down too hard on Poland.
“It’s difficult to say how far it might spiral out of control – whether a bigger spat will develop and Poland will dig in or fall in line. They feel very backed into a corner by the rest of the EU.”
Meanwhile, Deloitte chief economist Ian Stewart believes that a series of major national elections in 2017 were won by pro-EU candidates, the work is far from over.
He said: “2017 has been all about the perceived reduction of risk in Europe – three major elections were won by mainstream candidates.
“The real question for the EU is not Brexit, but the future direction of the EU itself.”