The decision will be made after a series of secret ballots during a meeting of the 27 European affairs ministers in Brussels on Monday November 20.
And the prize is the prestige and profit of hosting a lucrative EU agency.
One senior diplomat said: “It’ll be a bloodbath. Everyone will be fighting their corner. It will have nothing to do with the merits of these cities.”
The EMA has warned that moving to some of the cities on the list will see so many of its 900 London staff quit that it would harm Europe’s health.
Top choices for employees are Amsterdam, Vienna and Barcelona while Warsaw or Sofia would be unpopular moves.
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But senior diplomats admit logic may count for little with previous contests being won by some of those least expecting it.
Candidate states agreed to a number of criteria, including that cities chosen should offer premises ready for a start in March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, be accessible from across Europe and take account of “geographical spread” – the fact newer members in the east host fewer agencies than richer neighbours.
But with each minister able to cast votes in secret, those criteria may play little role.
In the first round, each country can award three points to their first choice, two to a second and one to a third.
Diplomats and officials said the top score of most would probably go to their own city, while other points may go to some of the weaker candidates to avoid damaging their own chances.
If there is no winner, the top three will go into a second round and, if needed, there will be a run-off.
If that ends in a tie, the Estonian minister chairing the meeting will draw lots.
The vote will be followed by a similar ballot to decide the next host of the smaller European Banking Authority which is also leaving London after Brexit and which eight countries are vying for.