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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Space Force is modifying its risk evaluation process for space launch missions, implementing tiered mission assurance standards that could broaden opportunities for emerging commercial launch providers. This strategic shift in national security space launch procurement, known as NSSL Phase 3, introduces a classification system to calibrate oversight levels for each launch based on its risk profile and the significance of its payload. While this framework has been in place since the Phase 3 announcement last year, recent directives and statements from Space Force officials are highlighting how this evolution could reduce barriers for entry for new commercial entities in the space industry.
Tiered Mission Assurance Approach
Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, the Space Force’s program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, stated last week that “Lane 1 provides us considerable flexibility with mission assurance based on the acceptable risk posture of the payload.” This tiered system within NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 is designed to create avenues for companies offering medium-lift rockets. These firms may not meet the stringent requirements of Lane 2 but are capable of fulfilling the needs of lower-mass national security missions.
Mission assurance, in government parlance, encompasses the comprehensive safety protocols, design reviews, and external evaluations traditionally associated with national security launches. These measures are intended to avert catastrophic failures of missions carrying valuable and often irreplaceable satellites. Although essential for high-value payloads, these rigorous demands have historically been so resource-intensive and time-consuming that only established players like SpaceX and ULA could consistently compete effectively.
“The government determines the most appropriate level of mission assurance for each mission based on the risk tolerance associated with the payload,” Gen. Panzenhagen clarified.
Assessing Space Mission Risk
Lane 2 of the NSSL program remains dedicated to heavy-lift and high-stakes missions, where comprehensive government supervision is considered indispensable. Conversely, Lane 1 allows companies to compete for launch contracts with less demanding assurance requirements. This includes Tier 0 missions, which require no government oversight, and progresses up to Tier 3, which incorporates select assurance protocols for missions that, while not deemed critical, still present considerable risks.
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Col. Doug Pentecost, who oversees the NSSL program, explained that this structure was intentionally crafted to diversify the launch market.
“The tiered mission assurance system was created to open up the market to commercial launch players that do not have certified vehicles but have demonstrated successful commercial launches,” he elaborated.
For instance, Tier 0 missions could include deploying small satellites for proliferated constellations operated by agencies like the Space Development Agency or the National Reconnaissance Office. In these scenarios, the risk of failure is more acceptable due to the availability of replacement satellites in production pipelines.
Lane 1 Tier 3 Mission to Test New Model
The upcoming Lane 1 launch of the second Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M) satellite will be the inaugural Tier 3 mission awarded under this revised framework. Unlike missions deploying replaceable smallsats, the WSF-M mission entails substantial operational risk. It represents the second and final satellite in a vital environmental monitoring program crucial for supporting military operations.
“That is going to be our first Tier 3 mission assurance mission,” Col. Pentecost confirmed.
To contend for this category of launch, commercial rockets will be subjected to increased scrutiny, including engineering reviews and independent testing. However, this process will still be less exhaustive compared to the in-depth procedures mandated for Lane 2.
The updated framework has garnered interest from numerous commercial launch providers who previously found military contracts unattainable. Lane 1 contracts have already been granted to SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Stoke Space, although Rocket Lab and Stoke Space have yet to launch their NSSL-eligible rockets.
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck, known for the company’s small Electron rocket, highlighted the Space Force’s Lane 1 approach as a long-awaited change. Rocket Lab is currently developing the larger Neutron vehicle for commercial launches and to compete within the NSSL program.
“It’s a great procurement solution,” Beck remarked. He further noted that government mission assurance requirements significantly inflate the cost of a launch mission. This new framework, he argued, enables companies to compete based on commercial performance rather than adherence to costly compliance mandates.
Beck referenced the now-bankrupt Virgin Orbit as a cautionary example. He stated that in striving to meet government assurance standards, Virgin Orbit invested in complex equipment and procedures, such as X-ray machines and ultrasound systems for its rockets—investments that ultimately proved financially unsustainable.
“I think that’s what killed Virgin Orbit,” stated Beck, whose company acquired Virgin Orbit’s assets post-bankruptcy. “There is no way you can incorporate that into your business and still viably serve commercial customers.”
“There’s no level of oversight that’s going to reduce the fact that a launch company doesn’t want to fail,” Beck concluded. “We take every practical step to avoid failure.”