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Concerns are mounting as a new report highlights the escalating issue of space debris re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Experts warn about the increasing rate of objects returning from orbit, posing potential hazards to our atmosphere and safety on the ground. This surge in satellite reentry and space junk necessitates a closer look at the long-term implications for Earth orbit and the planet.
Over 46,000 space debris fragments more than 4 inches wide now clutter Earth’s orbit. | Credit: ESA
Increasing Space Debris Re-entry: A Growing Concern
Daily Satellite Re-entry Rate
A recent report reveals that at least three aged satellites or rocket components descend back to Earth every day.
Rising Space Debris Despite Atmospheric Burnup
Experts caution that the quantity of objects returning from space is anticipated to rise, potentially posing risks to Earth’s atmosphere and the well-being of individuals on the planet’s surface.
The Space Environment Report, issued by the European Space Agency (ESA) on April 1st, indicated that approximately 1,200 “intact objects” re-entered the atmosphere in 2024. This is in addition to a multitude of smaller space debris particles.
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Despite the continuous influx of space junk encountering the atmosphere, the overall volume of space debris actually increased throughout 2024. It is estimated that around 45,700 objects, larger than 3 inches (10 centimeters), are currently orbiting Earth. Some of this new debris originates from satellites naturally reaching their operational lifespan’s end.
Megaconstellations and Future Re-entry Increase
Moreover, several collisions and explosions in orbit contributed at least 3,000 newly traceable fragments during 2024. Adding to this, approximately 9,300 operational spacecraft are presently circling Earth, and ongoing launches continue to augment this number.
The new report “emphasizes that space activity has now amplified to a degree where we are exerting a tangible influence on the environment, both in space and within the upper atmosphere,” stated astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, a leading global authority on space debris, in a discussion with Space.com.
McDowell, who was not involved in the report’s compilation and rigorously monitors orbital traffic, noted that on the day of the interview (April 4th), at least three objects had returned from space. These included two SpaceX Starlink broadband satellites and a 43-year-old Russian spy satellite, Kosmos 1340. According to McDowell, Starlink satellites constitute the majority of objects currently re-entering Earth, and their numbers are projected to escalate.
Starlink’s Constellation Impact
“If SpaceX proceeds with its plans to expand the Starlink constellation to 30,000 satellites, we will be facing approximately 15 re-entries daily,” McDowell explained.
Upcoming Constellations
“Furthermore,” he added, “Amazon is poised to commence deploying its Kuiper constellation. We are also observing the initiation of Chinese megaconstellation projects. Consequently, in the upcoming five to ten years, a corresponding surge in the quantity of satellites being decommissioned is anticipated.”
Environmental Consequences of Satellite Re-entry
Operators of constellations typically replace their satellites with advanced models roughly every five years. To mitigate further accumulation of space debris, they aim to remove each low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite from its orbit within five years of mission completion.
However, these re-entries are resulting in an increasing amount of space junk combusting in the upper atmospheric layers, raising concerns among atmospheric scientists. Satellites are predominantly composed of aluminum, which produces aluminum oxide upon combustion. Scientists have long recognized that aluminum oxide can hasten ozone depletion and contribute to thermal shifts in the upper atmosphere.
Atmospheric Pollution from Burning Satellites
Eloise Marais, a professor of atmospheric chemistry at University College London, characterized the current rate of three re-entries per day as “uncharted territory” and a concerning trend.
Potential Ozone Depletion
“The atmospheric impact is undeniably more significant than ever before, as a greater volume of ozone-depleting pollutants, including aluminum oxide, other metal oxides, and gaseous nitrogen oxides, are being introduced into the atmosphere than in previous times,” stated Marais, leading a team of scientists developing an inventory of emissions from satellite re-entries and rocket launches.
Risk of Debris Impact on Earth
Besides potential environmental repercussions, the growing frequency of satellite re-entries may elevate the risk of residual debris impacting Earth, potentially endangering property and human lives. McDowell clarified that while the current risk to humans remains minimal, it will escalate proportionally with the increasing number of re-entries.
Low Probability, Increasing Threat
“Most satellites incinerate entirely,” McDowell noted. “Starlink satellites are specifically engineered for complete disintegration unless they re-enter in an atypical manner. However, for instance, the Russian Kosmos 1340, weighing approximately 2.5 tons, likely left behind fragments that reached Earth’s surface.”
Past Incidents of Debris Impact
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Given that the majority of Earth’s surface is either ocean or uninhabited territory, the likelihood of debris landing in populated areas remains low. Nevertheless, instances of debris being discovered near human settlements have occurred.
For example, in February of this year, charred remnants from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket were dispersed across regions of Poland and Ukraine. In March 2024, a 4-inch (10-centimeter) fragment of melted metal penetrated the roof of a residence in Florida. This space projectile was subsequently identified as a remnant of a battery pallet jettisoned from the International Space Station three years prior.
“Each re-entry is like rolling the dice,” McDowell stated. “Eventually, statistical probability suggests we will encounter misfortune, and someone will be harmed by falling space debris.”
ESA Report Highlights Persistent Debris Issue
The ESA report emphasized that despite ongoing efforts to promptly remove defunct satellites from orbit, an excessive number of objects are still being abandoned, leading to collision risks. The ESA report further stated that even with a 90% success rate in spacecraft removal, the quantity of space debris objects will continue to expand.
In certain segments of LEO, the count of operational satellites is now approaching the number of space debris objects, the report specified. Besides objects exceeding 4 inches, which are trackable from Earth using radar and telescopes, there are an estimated 1.1 million fragments ranging from 0.4 to 4 inches in size and an additional 130 million minute particles smaller than 0.4 inches, according to the ESA.