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Arctic Thaw Raises Concerns of ‘Zombie Virus’ Pandemic Threat
As the world reflects on the profound disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, attention is increasingly turning towards potential future global health crises. Scientists are actively investigating the possibility of a hypothetical ‘Disease X’. However, a recent study suggests a more immediate threat might originate from an unexpected quarter: the Arctic. Researchers have issued warnings that melting ice in the North Pole region could liberate dormant, ancient pathogens, often referred to as ‘zombie viruses’, with the capacity to initiate a new global pandemic.
‘Methuselah Microbes’: Ancient Diseases Resurfacing
These so-called ‘Methuselah microbes’, also known as ancient viruses or revived pathogens, possess the alarming ability to remain inactive within permafrost and the remains of frozen fauna for millennia. As global temperatures rise and permafrost consequently thaws, a growing apprehension among scientists is that these prehistoric illnesses could re-emerge and infect human populations.
Dr. Khaled Abass, a co-author of the study from the University of Sharjah, emphasizes the interconnected risks: ‘Climate change is not merely causing ice to melt; it is eroding the natural barriers that separate ecosystems, animal species, and human societies. The thawing of permafrost could potentially unleash bacteria and viruses that have remained frozen, undisturbed, for thousands of years.’
Scientists caution that melting Arctic ice and thawing permafrost could release deadly ‘zombie viruses’, potentially triggering the next pandemic. Pictured: Researchers traversing the thawing Greenland icecap.
‘Methuselah microbes’ can lie dormant in soil and frozen animal carcasses for tens of millennia. Scientists have successfully reactivated some ancient diseases in laboratory settings, including Pithovirus sibericum, isolated from a 30,000-year-old permafrost sample.
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Glaciers also serve as reservoirs for vast quantities of frozen viruses. Predictions of glacier disappearance by 2100 have heightened concerns about the potential release of these ancient pathogens.
Decades of Research on Arctic Pathogen Revival
For over a decade, scientific understanding has acknowledged the enduring infectious potential of bacteria and viruses preserved in the Arctic permafrost. In 2014, researchers successfully extracted viruses from Siberian permafrost, demonstrating their capacity to infect living cells despite being frozen for vast periods. Similarly, in 2023, scientists achieved the revival of an amoeba virus that had been dormant for 48,500 years.
Glaciers as Additional Reservoirs of Ancient Viruses
The risk landscape extends beyond permafrost regions, with substantial ice formations such as glaciers also harboring dormant pathogens. Last year, a study identified 1,700 ancient viruses within a glacier in western China, the majority of which were previously unknown to science. These viruses, dating back as far as 41,000 years, have persisted through significant climatic shifts.
Permafrost Thaw: A Gateway for Pathogen Release
The inherent danger lies in the potential release of these trapped microbes. While safely contained within frozen permafrost and ice, any disturbance or melting event can liberate these organisms into the environment, many of which could pose significant hazards.
Frozen animal remains, such as mammoths or woolly rhinoceros (pictured), can harbor ancient, dormant organisms. Disturbance or thawing of these remains leads to the release of these microbes.
Some of these microbes exhibit dangerous potential, such as Pacmanvirus lupus (pictured), found thawing from the 27,000-year-old intestines of a frozen Siberian wolf.
Ancient ‘Wolf Virus’ Demonstrates Pathogenic Capacity
For instance, researchers unearthed Pacmanvirus lupus, an ancient relation to the African swine fever virus, while examining the 27,000-year-old intestines of a frozen Siberian wolf. Even after millennia in a frozen state since the Middle Stone Age, this virus retained its ability to infect and destroy amoebas in laboratory experiments.
Massive Scale of Microbe Release from Permafrost
Scientists estimate the staggering scale of microbial release from permafrost, calculating that approximately four sextillion cells – four followed by 21 zeros – are discharged annually at current thawing rates. While estimations suggest that only a small fraction, around one in 100, of these ancient pathogens might disrupt ecosystems, the sheer volume of escaping microbes elevates the probability of hazardous incidents.
Past Incidents: Anthrax Outbreak in Siberia
A stark example occurred in 2016 when anthrax spores, released from a 75-year-old animal carcass thawed from Siberian permafrost, resulted in dozens of hospitalizations and a child’s death. However, researchers emphasize that a potentially greater hazard lies in the establishment of these diseases within animal populations. Increased human-animal interaction would then heighten the likelihood of zoonotic spillover, where the disease crosses into humans.
Zoonotic Risks and Limited Defenses
Researchers indicate that zoonotic diseases, those transmitted from animals to humans, constitute approximately three-quarters of all known human infections, including those prevalent in the Arctic. The emergence of a zoonotic disease from a dormant state in the Arctic permafrost poses a significant threat, as human immune systems may lack the necessary defenses to combat such novel infections.
Researchers warn that pathogens from frozen animals, such as this 39,500-year-old cave bear from Siberia, could jump to modern species. Such an eventuality presents a serious risk of ancient disease transmission to humans.
The Arctic is particularly susceptible to zoonotic disease emergence due to limited health monitoring infrastructure. Researchers note the widespread presence of diseases like Toxoplasma gondii across Arctic human and animal populations (illustrated).
Pandemic Potential and Arctic Vulnerability
This scenario of novel infection carries the potential to escalate into a particularly perilous and challenging pandemic to control. Dr. Abbas explains the interconnectedness of environmental and health issues: ‘Climate change and pollution are impacting both animal and human health – our research investigates these interconnections. As the Arctic experiences disproportionately rapid warming, environmental shifts, including permafrost melting and ecosystem changes, could facilitate the spread of infectious agents between wildlife and people.’
Limited Arctic Infrastructure: Amplifying Pandemic Risks
Researchers underscore the heightened pandemic risk originating from Arctic regions due to the area’s underdeveloped medical infrastructure. Limited healthcare and research resources mean a disease outbreak could achieve widespread dissemination before authorities can effectively respond. Zoonotic diseases, like Hantavirus hemorrhagic fever and Toxoplasma gondii, are already prevalent throughout the Arctic, further highlighting the region’s vulnerability.
Global Implications of Arctic Environmental Changes
Dr. Abbas cautions that the ramifications of Arctic changes are not geographically contained: ‘The environmental stressors we examined generate ripple effects extending far beyond polar regions.’ The potential release of ‘zombie viruses’ from the Arctic poses a global health security challenge demanding international attention and proactive measures.