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Geopolitical Shifts Drive Demand for Sovereign Satellite Networks
Sovereign satellite networks are gaining momentum amid accelerating geopolitical shifts, creating new opportunities for connectivity operators outside the United States. Multi-orbit providers and regional actors anticipate increased demand from nations seeking alternatives to U.S.-dominated systems like SpaceX’s expansive low Earth orbit (LEO) network. The crucial question remains: can these competitors scale operations rapidly enough to effectively challenge Starlink?
Europe Pivots Towards Space Sovereignty
The push for independent satellite capabilities is particularly pronounced in Europe, a region that has become heavily reliant on Starlink due to limitations in its own launch and broadband satellite infrastructure.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored this strategic realignment on March 18, stating, “The era of the peace dividend is long gone.” Her remarks accompanied the unveiling of an 800 billion euro ($872 billion) initiative aimed at strengthening European defense capabilities as the United States reconsiders its global security commitments.
“The security framework we have depended on can no longer be assumed,” Von der Leyen emphasized. “We must procure more European solutions.”
While details of the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan are still under development, space industry leaders across the continent foresee a significant boost for the sector, recognizing the increasingly vital role of satellites in safeguarding national security.
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A Shifting Market Landscape
Starlink‘s critical role in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s ongoing invasion has highlighted the strategic importance of satellite communications.
Despite SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s assurances that Starlink services to Ukraine would remain uninterrupted, uncertainties surrounding long-term support have bolstered investor interest in Eutelsat. The French satellite operator confirmed discussions about providing supplementary services to Ukraine, leading to a rise in its stock value.
“The geopolitical situation has fundamentally changed in recent weeks,” observed David Wajsgras, CEO of U.S.-based satellite operator Intelsat. He relayed the sentiment of a European executive who stated, “Europe has suddenly awakened to the necessity of ensuring its own security.”
Eutelsat’s OneWeb network stands as the most substantial LEO alternative to Starlink currently available.
Unlike Starlink, OneWeb offers users access to Eutelsat’s geostationary satellites, providing enhanced redundancy. However, OneWeb terminals are notably more expensive, and advertised broadband speeds reach a maximum of 195 megabits per second, slightly below Starlink‘s 220 Mbps.
Europe’s response to this evolving landscape is IRIS², a proposed multi-orbit sovereign broadband constellation intended to lessen dependence on foreign systems. The project envisions deploying over 290 satellites by early 2031.
Contracts for IRIS² were finalized in December, following an agreement with an industrial consortium to contribute to its $11 billion-plus budget.
Nevertheless, doubts persist regarding the project’s timeline and its capacity to compete with Starlink, especially as China expands its own broadband satellite network.
“I was among those who questioned whether IRIS² would ever materialize,” Wajsgras admitted. “Now, I believe it is not only going to happen, but it will progress much faster than anticipated.”
IRIS² is structured as a public-private partnership involving prominent satellite operators such as Eutelsat and SES of Luxembourg, which is currently awaiting regulatory approvals for its acquisition of Intelsat.
Starlink’s Dominant Position
Despite growing competition, Starlink maintains a leading position with over 5 million subscribers across 125 countries and a vast constellation of more than 7,000 LEO satellites – a number that continues to increase.
SpaceX is also relying on its Starship rocket to accelerate the deployment of Starlink upgrades, further strengthening its appeal to governments, businesses, and individual consumers, even with rising competition.
For years, competitors in the enterprise market have emphasized that Starlink does not guarantee bandwidth, uptime, or availability through Service Level Agreements (SLAs), which are standard practice in sectors like aviation and maritime.
However, this aspect of Starlink‘s service may soon evolve.
“Our current service offering is highly compelling, and uptime has been exceptional,” SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen noted on March 12 at the Satellite Conference. He added that he is encouraging the sales team to incorporate service guarantees into their offerings.
Direct-to-Device Technology Gains Traction
U.S. companies pioneering direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services are seeking to capitalize on Europe’s renewed emphasis on space autonomy.
SES announced an investment in Lynk Global on March 10 to enter the emerging D2D sector, along with plans to bring the Virginia-based company’s manufacturing capabilities to Europe. Concurrently, AST SpaceMobile, based in Texas, established a joint European satellite operator with Vodafone, a major European mobile network provider, to offer D2D services.
“Every continent, every political entity, is pursuing sovereignty,” SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh stated during the announcement, “therefore, we will bring that capability to Europe to ensure we can participate in European initiatives.”
Starlink is also making advancements in D2D. While European companies such as Spain’s Sateliot and Luxembourg’s OQ Technology are expanding into D2D, U.S. competitors retain an advantage in terms of scale, funding, and regulatory partnerships.