Importance Score: 78 / 100 🔴
A recent study identifies the top 10 US cities facing the highest earthquake vulnerability in 2025, with some locations proving to be unexpected danger zones. This report, compiled by Home Gnome, a home services booking firm, assessed 206 of the most populous US counties. The evaluation considered seismic risk, the average age of residential buildings, the presence of dams, and other relevant metrics to determine overall hazard impact.
Each county received a vulnerability score (out of 100), facilitating a ranking from least to most susceptible. Interestingly, the analysis revealed high-risk areas in states like Tennessee and Oklahoma, not typically associated with significant seismic activity. Conversely, California and Oregon, states widely recognized for earthquake prevalence, also feature prominently in the rankings. Earthquakes present considerable threats, causing substantial destruction and financial losses, particularly when infrastructure is not earthquake-resistant.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) reported a relatively subdued year for seismic events in 2024, documenting just under 40 ‘significant’ earthquakes on or off the US coastline. These events fortunately resulted in minimal damage and no reported casualties. To highlight the areas of greatest concern, DailyMail.com has compiled a list of the largest cities within the 10 most earthquake-vulnerable counties, providing insight into potential danger zones across the nation.
1. San Francisco, California
San Francisco County emerges as the most earthquake-prone area on the list, according to the report, with a risk score of 57.59. The city of San Francisco, home to over 800,000 residents, is acutely aware of earthquake threats. Its location near numerous fault lines, notably the 800-mile-long San Andreas Fault – a boundary between two tectonic plates – puts it at considerable risk.
The movement of these plates, as they grind past each other, generates friction that can lead to stress accumulation. When this built-up pressure exceeds the fault’s strength, a sudden slip occurs, releasing seismic waves that propagate to the surface. San Francisco has endured earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7, including a magnitude 7.1 event on the San Andreas Fault in 1989. This quake inflicted substantial damage to the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge, causing one fatality, and resulted in a total of 63 deaths, over 3,700 injuries, and approximately $6 billion in damages.
2. Los Angeles, California
Los Angeles County, encompassing the city of Los Angeles, secured the second position on the list with an earthquake vulnerability score of 53.03. Similar to San Francisco, Los Angeles’ proximity to the San Andreas Fault and other seismic fractures renders it highly susceptible to earthquakes. The city has experienced numerous significant seismic events throughout its history.
With a dense population exceeding three million, earthquakes in Los Angeles carry a heightened risk of casualties, as population density directly correlates with potential fatalities, according to the Royal Geographical Society. The deadliest earthquake recorded in Los Angeles occurred in 1933, a magnitude 6.4 tremor that resulted in 120 deaths and $40 million in property damage. In 1994, the magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake caused widespread building collapses across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, and San Bernardino counties.
Although the Northridge earthquake registered a higher magnitude than the 1933 event, it resulted in fewer deaths, largely attributed to enhanced building codes in California that prioritize earthquake resistance. Nevertheless, the Northridge earthquake still inflicted significant damage across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, and San Bernardino counties, causing 60 fatalities, injuring over 7,000 individuals, and leaving thousands homeless.
3. Coos Bay, Oregon
Coos Bay ranks third on the list with a risk score of 50.61 for Coos County. This city, with a population exceeding 15,000, is situated within eight miles of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a megathrust fault where the Juan de Fuca plate subducts beneath the North American plate.
This extensive 700-mile fault line, located approximately 100 miles off the Pacific Coast and stretching from Northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino, California, is capable of generating massive earthquakes. A megathrust earthquake from the Cascadia Subduction Zone could reach magnitude 9 or higher, comparable to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that devastated coastal Japan, causing nearly 20,000 deaths and $360 billion in damages. Coos Bay lies directly within the potential impact zone.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone has remained relatively quiet for over three centuries, leading scientists to believe it is overdue for a major seismic event. City officials caution, ‘We should be aware that an earthquake can shake the area at any time with little or no warning and we will likely be surprised when it happens.’
4. Memphis, Tennessee
Tennessee is not typically associated with high seismic activity; however, Shelby County, including the city of Memphis, is ranked fourth in earthquake vulnerability with a score of 50.55. Despite common perceptions, Memphis, with over 600,000 residents, experiences relatively frequent earthquakes, averaging over 400 annually.
While most are imperceptible, the region has experienced tremors reaching magnitude 5. Memphis is positioned on the southern edge of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, one of the most seismically active areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The network of faults constituting this complex seismic zone extends into northeastern Arkansas, southwestern Kentucky, southeastern Missouri, and northwestern Tennessee.
In 1865, the New Madrid Seismic Zone produced the largest earthquake to affect Memphis, a magnitude 5 tremor that caused ground undulation and river waves. Chimneys throughout the city cracked and collapsed. Experts have issued warnings about a 40 percent probability of an 8.4 magnitude earthquake originating from the New Madrid zone within the next 50 years.
5. Oakland, California
Alameda County, home to Oakland, secured fifth place with a risk score of 49.9. This city, inhabited by over 400,000 people, is also located near the San Andreas Fault. Oakland is further influenced by subsidiary faults branching from the San Andreas, including the Hayward Fault, which directly traverses the city and has generated earthquakes reaching magnitude 7.
California’s Department of Conservation identifies the Hayward Fault as ‘one of the most dangerous in the world because scientists believe it is due for a large earthquake and because it runs under a densely populated part of California.’ Experts estimate a 31 percent chance of the Hayward Fault producing a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake within the next three decades. In 1868, this fault triggered a magnitude 6.8 earthquake that caused widespread devastation across the San Francisco Bay Area, including Oakland.
The 1868 earthquake is recognized as one of California’s most destructive seismic events; the 40 seconds of intense shaking resulted in 30 deaths and caused brick buildings, walls, and chimneys to collapse in Oakland and other Bay Area communities.
6. Portland, Oregon
Multnomah County, encompassing Portland, secured sixth place with a score of 49.70. Portland, home to over 600,000 residents, is situated approximately 200 miles north of Coos Bay and lies near the Cascadia Subduction Zone, though located further inland.
Despite its inland location relative to Coos Bay, a high-magnitude earthquake from the Cascadia Subduction Zone would still impact Portland. The city is also vulnerable to local crustal faults, such as the Portland Hills fault zone, comprising three distinct faults running beneath the city. Experts suggest the Portland Hills fault zone is capable of producing earthquakes as strong as magnitude 7.2, though with a recurrence interval of approximately 1,000 years. The most recent earthquake to significantly affect Portland was the 1993 Scott Mills earthquake, a magnitude 5.6 event that caused approximately $28.4 million in property damage but no serious injuries or fatalities.
7. Ukiah, California
Ukiah is ranked seventh on the list with a risk score of 49.60 for Mendocino County. Ukiah, the smallest city on the list with just over 16,000 residents, is nonetheless significantly exposed to earthquake hazards due to its proximity to the Maacama fault.
The Maacama fault is considered the northernmost segment of the Hayward fault system and is situated just east of Ukiah. Historically, this fault has generated moderate earthquakes, with the strongest recorded at magnitude 4.9. However, the most damaging earthquake in Ukiah’s history was the magnitude 7.9 San Andreas earthquake of 1906. While the primary devastation centered on San Francisco, strong shaking extended to Mendocino County.
Mendocino County experienced landslides and road blockages, isolating communities for days. In Ukiah, a newly constructed building collapsed, though overall damage to the city was less severe compared to nearby areas.
8. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Oklahoma, similar to Tennessee, is not immediately associated with earthquake risk. However, Oklahoma County, including Oklahoma City with over 700,000 residents, ranks eighth, exhibiting a risk score of 49.42.
Oklahoma experiences roughly fifty minor earthquakes annually, with only one or two typically felt. However, the state witnessed a surge in seismic activity until 2015, largely attributed to oil and gas drilling operations. The USGS suggests that the second-largest earthquake in Oklahoma’s history, a magnitude 5.7 tremor in 2011, might have been induced by human activity.
This 2011 earthquake, occurring near active wastewater injection wells used in fracking, which are known to trigger seismic events, caused minor damage in Oklahoma City with a few homes affected. Areas closer to the epicenter suffered significantly, with US Route 62 buckling in three locations and several homes sustaining major damage. Two injuries were reported. While human-induced seismic activity has decreased in Oklahoma since 2015, Oklahoma City remains situated on the Nemaha Fault Zone, capable of producing earthquakes as strong as magnitude 5.5.
9. San Bernardino, California
San Bernardino County, and its namesake city, received a risk score of 49.15. The San Andreas Fault passes close to the San Bernardino metro area, frequently causing earthquake tremors in the city.
Earthquake Track data indicates San Bernardino experienced nearly 700 earthquakes in the past year, though most were too small to be felt. Recently, a cluster of three earthquakes struck San Bernardino on February 10, with the largest, a magnitude 3.6, occurring around 10 pm local time. No immediate damage or injuries were reported. In 1992, San Bernardino was impacted by two of its most damaging earthquakes on a single day: the Landers-Big Bear earthquakes.
The Landers earthquake measured magnitude 7.5, and the Big Bear quake magnitude 6.6. Officials reported one death, 25 serious injuries, and 372 other injuries from the earthquake sequence, although these were not confined to San Bernardino. Within San Bernardino County, 77 homes were destroyed and 4,369 damaged, with estimated losses of $47.5 million.
10. San Mateo, California
Concluding the list at number 10 is San Mateo County, encompassing the city of San Mateo. This area earned a risk score of 49.14, securing its place in the top 10 partly due to its proximity to the San Andreas Fault, located just two miles west of the city.
The most destructive earthquake to ever affect San Mateo was the magnitude 7.1 San Andreas earthquake in 1989. The San Mateo County Historical Association reports, ‘In San Mateo County there were no deaths caused by the quake itself, and very few serious injuries, although panic and anxiety, especially about absent family members, did affect many of us.’
Should the San Andreas Fault generate a high-magnitude earthquake, San Mateo would be in the potential zone of destruction. Furthermore, owing to its coastal location, San Mateo faces additional vulnerability to tsunamis potentially triggered by a major San Andreas earthquake.