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Asteroid 2024 YR4: Lunar Collision Possible in 2032, Say Astronomers
Space scientists are diligently observing Asteroid 2024 YR4 due to emerging worries about a potential collision with the Moon in 2032. While initially assessed as not posing a substantial danger to Earth, recent assessments indicate a slight but noteworthy possibility of a lunar impact. These revised calculations are based on data obtained from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).
Discovery and Characteristics
Identified in December 2024, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be approximately 55 metres in diameter and is moving at velocities approaching 48,000 km/h. Early predictions suggested a potential impact with Earth, but subsequent information from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has eliminated that prospect. The focus has now shifted to the asteroid’s possible path toward the Moon.
Lunar Impact Probability
According to scientific reports, astronomers currently estimate a 1.7% chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 striking the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.
Potential Consequences of a Lunar Impact
Such a cosmic event could generate a crater as large as two kilometres across, potentially ranking it among the most significant lunar impacts documented in contemporary history.
An expert from the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey commented, “It would likely be highly visible from Earth.”
Dramatic Impact on Airless Moon
The absence of an atmosphere on the Moon implies that an impact from an object of this size would be considerably more dramatic compared to an equivalent event on Earth.
Lacking atmospheric deceleration, Asteroid 2024 YR4 would hit the lunar surface at its full speed, expelling debris into space.
Minimal Risk from Debris on Earth
Although some of this ejected material could drift towards Earth, a planetary science professor from Imperial College London clarified that “any such material would almost certainly burn up upon re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, representing a negligible threat.”
James Webb Space Telescope’s Role
The JWST has been instrumental in refining estimations of Asteroid 2024 YR4’s trajectory.
By analysing infrared radiation, astronomers have ascertained the asteroid’s dimensions, rotation rate, and composition with enhanced precision.
These observations are becoming increasingly crucial as the asteroid recedes further from Earth, making tracking more challenging for traditional ground-based telescopes.
Continued Monitoring and Scientific Opportunity
Further observations are anticipated to enhance prediction accuracy in the coming years. Experts emphasize that while the likelihood of a lunar impact remains low, it highlights the ongoing necessity for vigilance in tracking near-Earth objects.
In the circumstance of a collision, scientists affirm it would present a unique chance to observe an asteroid impact in real-time.
The Moon’s surface preserves a record of impacts spanning billions of years, yet direct observations of newly formed craters are infrequent.
Insights into Planetary Defence
Such an occurrence would offer valuable insights into planetary defence tactics and the possible ramifications of forthcoming asteroid impacts, whether directed at the Moon or other locations within the solar system.