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The recent bloodshed in Pahalgam, where numerous tourists were tragically killed in a militant assault, represents the most devastating attack in Kashmir since 2019. This incident, targeting civilians in one of India’s most scenic regions, is seen as a calculated strike against both human lives and the perceived stability that India has been striving to establish in the disputed territory. As tensions rise, the looming question is how India will respond and what will be the impact of such a retaliatory response in Kashmir.
India’s Response to the Pahalgam Attack: A Calculated Retaliation?
Given the complex history of Kashmir, which is claimed in full by both India and Pakistan but only partially controlled by each, India’s reaction is expected to be influenced by historical precedent and external pressures.
Initial Retaliatory Measures
Following the attack, Delhi quickly implemented several responsive measures, including:
- Closing the primary border crossing.
- Suspending a vital water-sharing agreement.
- Expelling diplomatic personnel.
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has promised a “strong response,” pledging action against both the assailants and the entities behind these “nefarious acts” on Indian land.
The Impending Military Response: When and How?
Analysts suggest that the crucial question is not if, but when and how India will execute a military response, considering the potential ramifications.
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According to military historian Srinath Raghavan, “We are likely to see a robust response – one that conveys determination to domestic audiences and entities in Pakistan. Since 2016, and especially after 2019, the benchmark for retaliation has been set at cross-border or aerial assaults.”
He added, “It will be challenging for the government to act below that standard now. Pakistan will likely retaliate, as it has previously, and the ever-present risk is misjudgment on both sides.”
Historical Precedents: India’s Retaliatory Actions
Raghavan references India’s significant retaliations in 2016 and 2019 as potential blueprints for the current situation.
2016: Surgical Strikes After the Uri Attack
Following the deadly Uri attack in September 2016, which resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers, India conducted what it termed “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting alleged militant launchpads in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
2019: Airstrikes After the Pulwama Incident
In 2019, after the Pulwama attack, which killed at least 40 paramilitary personnel, India launched airstrikes on an alleged militant camp in Balakot – its first in-depth strike inside Pakistan since 1971. Pakistan responded with its own air raids, leading to aerial combat and the brief capture of an Indian pilot. While both sides displayed strength, a full-scale war was averted.
In 2021, both nations agreed to an LoC ceasefire, which has largely remained in effect, despite ongoing militant incidents in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Risk of Escalation: Analysts’ Perspectives
Foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman believes that the recent attack, characterized by high casualty rates and the targeting of Indian civilians, increases the likelihood of an Indian military response against Pakistan.
“The primary benefit of such a reaction for India would be political, given the strong public demand for a forceful response,” he told the BBC.
“Additionally, a successful retaliation could deter future threats and degrade anti-India capabilities. However, the downside is the potential for a severe crisis and even armed conflict.”
Analyzing India’s Potential Courses of Action
Christopher Clary from the University at Albany suggests that covert operations might lack the necessary impact to visibly restore deterrence.
Possible Paths Forward
- Returning to Cross-Border Firing: Narendra Modi could authorize a resumption of cross-border firing, given the weakening 2021 LoC ceasefire.
- Airstrikes or Cruise Missile Strikes: Similar to the 2019 response, these could be considered, despite the risk of escalating retaliatory skirmishes.
“No option is without peril. Moreover, the US may be unable or unwilling to provide crisis management assistance,” Clary noted.
The Nuclear Dimension
A critical factor in any India-Pakistan crisis is the nuclear capability of both sides, which influences both military and political decisions.
Raghavan explains, “Nuclear weapons serve as both a threat and a deterrent, compelling decision-makers to exercise caution. Any response is likely to be framed as precise and targeted. Pakistan might retaliate in a similar fashion, then seek de-escalation.”
“This pattern has been seen in other conflicts, such as Israel-Iran – involving measured strikes followed by de-escalation efforts. Yet, the risk remains that events might deviate from the planned script.”
Kugelman emphasizes that one key lesson from the Pulwama crisis is that “each country is comfortable using limited counter retaliation.”
“India must carefully assess the tactical and political advantages of retaliation alongside the risk of a serious crisis or conflict.”
Hussain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, posits that escalation is plausible, with India potentially considering limited “surgical strikes” akin to those in 2016.
“The benefit of such strikes, from India’s perspective, is that they are contained, lessening the pressure on Pakistan to respond, while demonstrating decisive action to the Indian populace,” Haqqani stated.
“However, these strikes could provoke retaliation from Pakistan, which may argue it is being unfairly blamed without proper investigation or evidence.”
Conclusion: A Precarious Path Forward
Regardless of India’s chosen path and Pakistan’s reaction, each move carries substantial risk. The specter of escalation looms, pushing the fragile peace in Kashmir further out of reach.
Simultaneously, India must confront the security lapses that enabled the attack. “The fact that such an event occurred during peak tourist season suggests a significant failure, especially in a Union Territory where the federal government directly oversees law enforcement,” Raghavan concluded.