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The diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine are intensifying. Amidst these developments, discussions involving officials from the UK, Germany, France, Ukraine, and the United States are underway in London. Simultaneously, Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is traveling to Moscow for his fourth encounter with President Putin to discuss potential peace talks. However, the trajectory and potential success of these endeavors remain uncertain. While the international community seeks a resolution, the complexities involved in ceasefire negotiations and the establishment of lasting security guarantees present formidable obstacles.
The Shifting Sands of Peace Negotiations
The previous American strategy for concluding the hostilities in Ukraine was straightforward:
- An immediate, unconditional 30-day cessation of hostilities.
- Following this, longer-term discussions aimed at establishing a permanent resolution to the conflict.
Ukraine consented to this plan and, under pressure from the U.S., made a significant concession by relinquishing its demand for long-term security guarantees as a prerequisite for a ceasefire.
Russia’s Rejection and Counter-Demands
However, Russia declined the proposal, asserting that a cessation of hostilities could not occur until a comprehensive set of conditions were fulfilled.
Vladimir Putin insisted that the “root causes” of the war needed to be addressed, specifically his concerns regarding NATO expansion and the perceived threat to Russia’s security from Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign nation.
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The US Proposes a New Framework
The United States acknowledged the foundation of this Russian argument and is now deeply involved in formulating a potential ceasefire proposal.
Recent reports have surfaced regarding the latest U.S. ideas, although their status and accuracy are disputed among diplomatic circles. Nevertheless, a framework appears to be emerging along the following lines:
- Russia would halt its invasion along current front lines.
- Russia would relinquish its ambition to seize control of the remaining portions of the four eastern Ukrainian regions it has yet to fully occupy: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Proposed Concessions and Conditions
In return, the U.S. would:
- Accept the four occupied territories de facto as being under Russian control.
- Recognize Crimea, annexed illegally by Russia in 2014, as de jure Russian territory.
- Ensure Ukraine abandons its aspirations of joining NATO.
Moreover, the U.S. might assume control of the contentious Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – presently under Russian control – and distribute its electricity to both sides of Ukrainian territory.
This plan would be reinforced by the U.S. threatening to abandon negotiations if an immediate agreement is not reached – a strategy previously voiced by both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Challenges and Obstacles to Agreement
Initially, the feasibility of this proposal appears doubtful.
President Zelensky has unequivocally stated that Ukraine will never concede Russian sovereignty over Crimea.
Even if he were inclined to do so, it would necessitate a referendum among the Ukrainian populace.
European powers have also affirmed their rejection of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, as it would contravene post-war international legal norms prohibiting alterations to borders through military force.
Legal and Diplomatic Hurdles
Legal scholars highlight technical complications concerning U.S. recognition of Crimea due to existing laws enacted by the U.S. Congress.
Despite these challenges, Western diplomats remain cautiously optimistic. One source suggested that a compromise might be attainable, contingent on sufficient trust between the involved parties.
This optimism stems from the perceived gaps in the proposed deal’s details.
Unaddressed Issues and Future Discussions
Notably absent are:
- Any restrictions on Western nations continuing to supply arms to Ukraine, a long-standing concern for Russia.
- References to Russia’s demands for Ukraine to be “demilitarized,” involving a significant reduction in its army’s size.
Under the proposed agreement, Ukraine might be barred from joining NATO but could potentially join the European Union.
Furthermore, there is no apparent objection to the deployment of a European “reassurance force” to western Ukraine post-ceasefire, aimed at deterring future Russian aggression.
However, the U.S.’s willingness to provide a “backstop” to this force remains unclear. Uncertainty also persists regarding the timeline and conditions for lifting economic sanctions against Russia.
Divergent Priorities and the Path Forward
In essence, numerous details remain unresolved and subject to further discussion.
All parties involved appear to hold disparate objectives. Ukraine seeks an immediate conditional ceasefire followed by negotiations, while the U.S. aims for a swift resolution. Russia, conversely, is focused on delving into the intricate details of a peace accord, a process typically spanning months, if not years.
An old Russian adage states, “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” Currently, that comprehensive agreement seems distant.