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Ukraine Peace Talks in London Postponed Amid Shifting Russian Stance
Ministerial-level Ukraine peace talks scheduled to occur in London on Wednesday were delayed at the last minute, spurring conjecture regarding a potential shift in Russia’s stance and following the announced inability of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to attend. The discussions aim to address the ongoing conflict and explore avenues for a lasting resolution.
Meetings Downgraded to Official Level
The UK Foreign Office stated that instead of ministerial discussions, meetings would proceed at an official capacity. Initial reactions from the Kremlin implied Moscow remained opposed to Nato deploying peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
Lammy’s Statement on Ukraine Peace Talks
Shortly before midnight, Lammy communicated via social media that discussions involving Rubio were productive, hinting that upcoming meetings would be held at a lower ranking. He stated:
“Talks continue at pace and officials will meet in London tomorrow. This is a critical moment for Ukraine, Britain and Euro-Atlantic security.”
Ukrainian Delegation’s Commitment to Peace
Despite the changes, Ukraine sent a high-ranking delegation, including Andriy Yermak, chief of staff of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Yermak affirmed: “Despite everything, we will work for peace.”
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Recent Attacks in Ukraine
Reports indicate that on Wednesday, nine individuals were killed after a Russian drone struck a bus transporting workers in the Ukrainian city of Marhanets. Ukrainian authorities reported 134 large drones attacked the country overnight.
Britain’s Emphasis on Dialogue for Ukraine Peace
Britain had greatly emphasized the talks, planned to be hosted by Lammy with participation from France and Germany. The US announced intentions to send its Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, in place of Rubio.
Possible Progress in US-Russia Peace Discussions
The late alteration in meeting scope followed reports from Russia and the US suggesting progress in separate bilateral peace discussions between the White House and the Kremlin.
Territorial Concessions and Ceasefire Agreements
Leaks to the Financial Times and other outlets alluded to Russia’s potential abandonment of territorial claims to three partially occupied Ukrainian regions, contingent upon the US formally recognizing the annexation of Crimea as part of a future ceasefire agreement.
Official Confirmation Awaited
As of now, neither Russia nor the US has officially confirmed these reports. However, President Donald Trump indicated on Monday that he would provide “full detail” on the peace proposals “over the next three days.”
Moscow’s Perspective on Freezing the Conflict
A source with knowledge of Moscow’s perspective confirmed to the Guardian that Vladimir Putin offered to freeze the conflict in Ukraine along existing frontlines during recent conversations with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy.
Potential Demands and Tactics Regarding Ukraine Peace:
- It remains uncertain what other demands Putin might present.
- The apparent concession could be a tactic to draw Trump into accepting broader Russian terms.
Ukraine’s Stance on Crimea
Ukraine’s president stated on Tuesday that his country could not accept recognizing Crimea as Russian territory, reiterating that it is incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution. “There is nothing new to mention or discuss. Ukraine will not recognise the occupation of Crimea,” he said.
Russia’s Additional Demands for Ukraine Peace
In addition to previously reported demands, Russia could also seek:
- An end to western military aid for Kyiv.
- A ban on the presence of western troops in Ukraine.
Kremlin’s Opposition to Peacekeeping Forces
Speaking on Wednesday, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov communicated Russia’s continued opposition to European peacekeeping forces, which Ukraine sees as a vital alternative to Nato membership for ensuring its security.
Nuances in Negotiation
Peskov added that “many nuances” exist within negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting various parties involved had yet to align positions.
Proposed “Reassurance Force”
Britain and France have suggested deploying a 30-country “reassurance force” into Ukraine following a ceasefire, aimed at preventing future outbreaks of combat. Russia has previously objected to this proposal.
Undermining Allied Relations
Lammy aimed to unify the US, Ukraine, and Europe in peace discussions, preserving allied relationships despite direct US-Russia talks ongoing. Rubio’s sudden absence and a surge of leaks from the US and Russia undermined these efforts, promoting the notion that pivotal discussions are solely between Washington and Moscow.
Russia’s Strategy: Trade Territory for Recognition?
Reports suggest Russia is willing to exchange territory it does not control in Ukraine for US recognition of its 2014 seizure of Crimea, setting a concerning precedent of border alteration by force. This tactic potentially makes it difficult for Zelenskyy, as Ukraine has repeatedly stated its legal inability to recognize the seizure of Crimea or other occupied territories.
Accounting for Ukraine’s Position
Russia may anticipate Ukraine’s weariness after three years of conflict, attempting to position its proposal as a reasonable alternative to western-backed ceasefire suggestions.
Accusations Against Russia
Russia has faced accusations of bad faith from Ukraine and the UK. Ukraine reported over 2,000 violations of a 30-hour Easter ceasefire announced by Putin, and the UK defense minister, John Healey, stated the halt was not observed. “Despite President Putin’s promise of a 30-hour pause in fighting… no indication that a ceasefire on the frontline was observed over the Easter period,” he told MPs.