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AI Predicts Next Pope Following Death of Pope Francis
Following the passing of Pope Francis, the Catholic Church has commenced the intricate and extended process of selecting his successor. As the world awaits the announcement of the new Pope, speculation is rife. Utilizing artificial intelligence, insights into potential candidates are emerging.
The Conclave: A Secretive Election
No sooner than 15 days after the pontiff’s demise, the 135 eligible cardinals will convene in the Conclave, a sequestered assembly where they will remain until a decision is reached regarding the next leader of the Church.
AI Prediction Favors Cardinal Parolin
For those eager to anticipate the outcome of this confidential election, MailOnline employed OpenAI’s ChatGPT to generate a prediction. According to the AI analysis, Cardinal Pietro Parolin is indicated as the most probable individual to ascend as the forthcoming head of the Roman Catholic Church.
The AI model highlights that Cardinal Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian cleric, is widely perceived as the natural inheritor of Pope Francis’s doctrines. Furthermore, he is currently favored in prominent betting markets.
ChatGPT stated, ‘Serving as Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is considered the “continuity” candidate – acceptable to both reformist and traditionalist factions.’
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‘In private voting sessions, and with substantial support from European and Latin American cardinals, he is viewed as a secure resolution if no single progressive figure can attain the required two-thirds majority.’
However, ChatGPT acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in predicting papal elections, even for advanced AI, cautioning that ‘the margin is slim, and any of the leading contenders could still prevail’.
Following the death of Pope Francis, the 135 eligible cardinals of the Catholic Church will gather in Rome to hold a conclave and elect his successor
While it will be weeks until we know the name of the next pope, MailOnline has used OpenAI’s ChatGPT to predict the result (stock image)
According to AI, the leading candidate for the next Pontiff is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the 70-year-old Italian priest seen by many as the natural heir to Pope Francis’ legacy
Inside the Conclave: Electing the New Pope
The election of the new pope occurs within the rigorously private process known as the Conclave.
The term ‘conclave’, derived from the Latin ‘cum clave’, meaning ‘with key’, aptly describes its secluded characteristic.
Any of the 252 living cardinals – high-ranking officials within the Catholic Church – under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. Many are expected to travel to Rome from across the globe to participate in the election.
Once the proceedings commence, the ‘cardinal electors’ will remain within Vatican City, isolated from external communication, until a new pope is elected by a two-thirds majority vote.
While theoretically any baptized Catholic male is eligible for election, in practical terms, the 2025 conclave will almost certainly select from the ranks of senior cardinals, often referred to as ‘papabili’ or potential papal candidates.
When questioned about which candidate is most likely to secure the majority, ChatGPT identified Cardinal Pietro Parolin as holding a slight advantage.
Referencing Reuters, the AI stated, ‘As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is regarded as a natural compromise figure between progressive and conservative viewpoints.’
‘He possesses fluency in multiple languages, has managed delicate diplomatic matters, and occupies the second-highest position in the Vatican hierarchy, subordinate only to the pope.’
Once the election begins, the cardinals will remain in the Vatican until a new pope is chosen by a two-thirds majority. Pictured: Cardinals at morning Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City, in 2005 before sequestering themselves in the Sistine Chapel for the beginning of the conclave to elect a new pope
ChatGPT Analysis of Top Candidates
The next pope, according to ChatGPT
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Odds of winning: 37 per cent
- Holds the second highest position in the Catholic Church and worked closely with Pope Francis.
- Seen as a compromise candidate between the liberal and conservative groups.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Odds of winning: 33 per cent
- Worked very closely with Pope Francis and was often called the ‘Asian Francis’.
- A liberal candidate who could draw on the 108 cardinals appointed by Pope Francis for support.
The AI further scrutinized global betting markets immediately following Pope Francis’s death, determining that Cardinal Parolin maintains ‘a marginal lead within the pool of bettors and prediction platforms’.
According to the cryptocurrency-based Polymarket prediction market, Parolin is assigned a 37 percent probability of becoming pope, while Newsweek’s compilation of traditional bookmakers also indicates a 37 percent likelihood.
Conversely, the second-ranked candidate, 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, is given a 32 percent chance.
ChatGPT observes: ‘In conclave terms, a five-point advantage in the betting market is hardly conclusive – hence, while Parolin is “most likely,” the margin is narrow.’
Cardinal Parolin is largely considered the continuity candidate, having collaborated intimately with Pope Francis.
Furthermore, Pope Francis appointed 108 of the current 135 cardinal electors, potentially increasing the prospects of a candidate aligned with the preceding Pope being elected.
Parolin is perceived as a moderate figure, though not as closely associated with the liberal wing as Francis has sometimes seemed.
When Ireland legalized same-sex marriage in 2015, Parolin characterized it as ‘a defeat for humanity’.
Cardinal Parolin, pictured visiting the body of Pope Francis, worked closely with the late Pope and could be a compromise candidate between the conservative and reformist camps
Cardinal Parolin, pictured meeting US Vice President JD Vance on April 19, also has considerable diplomatic experience which makes him a promising candidate
In recent times, Cardinal Parolin’s standing has slightly diminished due to his role as the architect of the 2018 accord between the Holy See and China, which some critics view as a capitulation to the Chinese Communist Party.
Cardinal Tagle, the former Archbishop of Manila, also emerges as a robust continuity candidate, enjoying a close rapport with Pope Francis and even being nicknamed ‘the Asian Francis’.
In an insightful evaluation, ChatGPT elucidates: ‘His decade-long pastoral service in Manila established him as a prominent figure in Asia, and his intelligence and empathy resonate through speeches that transcend cultural boundaries.’
‘Electing him would signify the first Asian pontiff in history and reinforce Francis’s dedication to promoting geographically diverse leadership.’
Other potential contenders include 76-year-old Peter Turkson, former Bishop of Cape Coast, who would be the first black pope, and 72-year-old conservative Cardinal Peter Erdo.
Nonetheless, while AI may have identified favored candidates, the definitive identity of the next pope may remain unknown for several weeks.
Secrecy and Procedures of the Papal Election
Throughout the conclave, cardinals are prohibited from communicating with the outside world, a restriction rigorously enforced. During the last conclave in 2013, technicians implemented a comprehensive communications blackout, and the Sistine Chapel is thoroughly inspected for surveillance devices.
ChatGPT selected Cardian Luis Antonia Tagle as the second-choice candidate. If elected, the former Archbishop of Manila would be the first Asian pope
Cardinal Tagle (left) worked closely with Pope Francis (right) and shared many of his liberal views. Tagle has even been dubbed the ‘Asian Francis’
Up to four rounds of voting occur daily until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority. The outcome of each ballot is announced aloud and meticulously recorded by three designated cardinals.
The only public indication of the conclave’s progress is the smoke emitted from a chimney each day.
If no candidate achieves the necessary two-thirds vote, the ballots are incinerated in a stove near the chapel, combined with chemical additives to produce black smoke as a signal of no decision.
The process may extend over numerous rounds, with voting patterns potentially remaining consistent as cardinals await shifts in support among other electors.
Gradually, cardinals who initially voted for candidates with minimal support are expected to transfer their votes to stronger contenders in subsequent rounds.
Similar to scenarios depicted in the film ‘Conclave,’ informal discussions among factions during voting recesses could influence opinions.
The longest conclave in history spanned 34 months, following the death of Clement IV in November 1268 until the election of Gregory X on 1 September 1271.
Other leading candidates included Cardinal Turkson. Born in Ghana, Turkson was the bookies’ favourite at one point when Francis was chosen in 2013. He would be the first black pope
Ralph Fiennes in the film Conclave, which with uncanny timing is up for an Oscar as the real thing takes place
In modern times, the longest conclave lasted five days – and 14 rounds of voting – to elect Pius XI in 1922.
Conversely, the conclave to elect Pope Francis 12 years prior lasted only two days.
Upon a cardinal receiving the requisite two-thirds majority, the dean of the College of Cardinals formally asks if he accepts the election.
Upon acceptance, the elected pope chooses a papal name and is vested in papal attire before proceeding to the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica.
The ballots from the final round are then burned in a specialized stove, generating white smoke to announce to the world the election of a new pope.