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Limited Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Highlights Deep Mistrust
A brief 30-hour ceasefire in Ukraine, declared by Russia, concluded with accusations of breaches from both sides, underscoring the persistent challenges in de-escalating the conflict. Despite the limited duration, Kyiv noted the absence of “air raid alerts” during Vladimir Putin’s “Easter truce,” with President Volodymyr Zelensky suggesting this format could be extended. This recent attempt at a pause in hostilities followed prior unsuccessful efforts, including a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire, illustrating the profound difficulties in achieving even temporary respite from fighting in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moscow had conditioned its ceasefire on demands including Ukraine halting re-armament and addressing the “underlying causes of the conflict”.
A significant obstacle to progress in peace talks remains the history of failed ceasefire agreements, fostering deep-seated distrust between the two nations.
During a tense encounter with Donald Trump in February, President Zelensky asserted that Russia had contravened 25 ceasefire arrangements since 2014, insisting that security guarantees are essential for any agreement to hold. Conversely, Russia has accused the Ukrainian leader of lacking the capacity to implement such accords.
Independent analysts suggest that Russia bears the primary responsibility for the collapse of truces, although Ukraine is also seen to share some accountability.
Statements from current and former Russian officials indicate that Moscow’s willingness to halt fighting is contingent upon achieving its original objectives, namely a demilitarized, neutral, and non-nuclear Ukraine.
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Historical Mistrust Rooted in 2014 Invasion
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014 represented a violation of the 1997 Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the two countries. Article 2 of this agreement explicitly affirmed that both nations “respect each other’s territorial integrity and confirm the inviolability of existing borders between them”.
Allegations of bad faith have plagued the conflict from its inception.
Former Ukrainian General Staff Chief, Viktor Muzhenko, alleges that Russia reneged on agreements designed to allow Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Ilovaysk in eastern Ukraine in August 2014.
The ensuing withdrawal became a deadly ambush, resulting in the deaths of at least 366 Ukrainian soldiers.
Minsk Agreements: Signed and Subsequently Broken
The first major ceasefire accord, Minsk-1, was signed on 5 September 2014. However, it collapsed within hours, with Ukraine reporting attacks by Russian-backed separatist forces at Donetsk airport. Hostilities persisted in other areas, including Debaltseve.
This breakdown led to a second attempt, Minsk-2, but this too proved short-lived.
Moments after Minsk-2 came into effect on 15 February 2015, observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) documented mortar and artillery fire in Donetsk. While deployed to monitor the security situation and ceasefire violations, the OSCE observers refrained from explicitly attributing blame.
Numerous subsequent failed ceasefire attempts followed. Many disintegrated within minutes of their commencement.
These included Easter truces (2016-2018), “school ceasefires” (2015-2018) intended to allow children in frontline areas to safely return to school each September, Christmas and New Year truces (2015-2018), and “bread ceasefires” (2017-2019) designed to facilitate grain harvesting, among others.
A “comprehensive ceasefire” initiated on 27 July 2020, reportedly lasted only 20 minutes according to Kyiv. Nevertheless, it did contribute to a reduction in fighting, halving Ukrainian military fatalities in the subsequent year.
Attribution of Blame for Ceasefire Violations
Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), argues that Russia’s engagement in ceasefire negotiations has consistently lacked sincerity.
“Russia has never genuinely intended to eliminate the threat or use of force in pursuing its objectives,” Savill contends.
He acknowledges to the BBC that while fluctuating levels of combat have occurred due to various ceasefire agreements, and that “Ukraine bears some responsibility for part of that”, the fundamental issue is the persistent “Russian or Russian-backed military threat”.
John Herbst, former US Ambassador to Kyiv and now with the Atlantic Council think-tank, asserts that Russia, not Ukraine, has been the “serial violator” of the Minsk ceasefire accords, the most substantial attempt to negotiate a truce.
Verifying ceasefire violation claims is challenging, as independent journalists are largely barred from Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine.
BBC journalist Olga Ivshina, reporting from eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region during earlier phases of the war, noted reports of Ukrainian forces regaining villages (2016-2019), a successful Ukrainian offensive near Mariupol, and Ukrainian tanks positioned too close to the frontline in breach of agreements.
Ivshina states, “Moscow proclaimed these as violations. However, they conveniently omitted mentioning their own capture of Debaltseve in 2015, which constituted the most significant violation.”
Minsk Accords and the Path Forward
Despite the Minsk Agreements, Russian-aligned forces initiated an offensive on Debaltseve, claiming the town was outside the scope of the ceasefire.
President Zelensky has characterized the Minsk accords as a “trap” for Ukraine, providing Russia time to prepare for a full-scale invasion.
President Putin maintains that neither Ukraine nor its Western allies intended to implement the Minsk agreements. He suggests their fate was sealed when Russia recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” as independent states.
Future Prospects for Peace Negotiations
Putin’s “Easter truce” proved to be merely a temporary respite. Former US President Trump expressed hope for a Russia-Ukraine deal within the week.
However, there is no indication that the Kremlin will accede to US calls for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, as accepted by Ukraine.
Trump has cautioned that should either side complicate ceasefire talks, the US might “take a pass” and withdraw from mediation efforts.
Russia’s insistence on resolving the “underlying causes of the conflict” suggests a continued pursuit of undermining Ukrainian sovereignty through both negotiation and military action.
Vladislav Surkov, a former close advisor to President Putin, previously lauded the Minsk accords as a means of “legitimizing” an initial partitioning of Ukraine.
Surkov has described peace as “nothing but a continuation of war by other means”.