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High-Stakes Nuclear Talks Between Iran and US Continue Amidst Tensions
As Iran and the United States engage in a second round of crucial nuclear discussions in Rome, hopes for de-escalation are weighed down by growing military threats and ambiguous communications. These talks are critical for regional stability and global nuclear non-proliferation efforts, making the outcome highly significant for international relations. The focus remains on finding a diplomatic solution to the ongoing tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.
US Stance: Diplomacy or Military Action
Former US President Donald Trump consistently conveyed to Tehran the stark alternatives: a nuclear agreement or potential military confrontation.
He previously suggested that Israel might initiate a military response if the nuclear negotiations were unsuccessful.
Reports in the New York Times indicated that Mr. Trump had reportedly “dismissed” an Israeli proposition to strike Iranian nuclear sites as early as the upcoming month.
“I wouldn’t describe it as dismissed. I am not in haste to act,” Mr. Trump clarified to reporters in response to the article, emphasizing his inclination towards pursuing diplomatic solutions.
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“I believe Iran possesses the chance to become a significant nation and thrive peacefully, avoiding conflict… That is my primary preference. Should a secondary course of action be necessary, it would be significantly detrimental for Iran,” he stated.
Following both sides characterizing the initial round of discussions in Oman the previous week as productive, Mr. Trump indicated he would be “making a determination on Iran imminently”.
Iran’s Return to Negotiations
In 2018, Mr. Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 accord, which involved Iran curtailing its nuclear activities and permitting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.
He asserted the agreement was insufficient in preventing Iran’s potential path to developing nuclear weapons and reimposed US sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” strategy to compel Iran to negotiate a revised pact.
However, Iran refused and progressively exceeded the agreed limitations as retaliation. It has now accumulated sufficient highly-enriched uranium to potentially construct several nuclear devices, should it choose to, an action it denies any intention of pursuing.
Military Threat and Negotiation Dynamics
The possibility of military intervention appears to have influenced Iran’s return to the negotiation process. However, Tehran maintains this is not the primary motivation.
The website affiliated with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran consented to discussions solely because the US confined its demands strictly to nuclear matters, and not out of apprehension of US or Israeli strikes.
Nevertheless, achieving a resolution remains uncertain.
Mr. Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, leading the US negotiating delegation, conveyed via social media on Tuesday: “Any conclusive arrangement must establish a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East – implying Iran must cease and dismantle its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program”.
This statement followed shortly after remarks in a Fox News interview where he appeared to suggest Iran might be permitted to continue uranium enrichment.
“They do not need to enrich beyond 3.67%,” he stated, referencing the limit stipulated in the 2015 nuclear agreement.
“The focus will largely be on verification of the enrichment program and ultimately, verification of nuclear weaponization.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, heading the Iranian delegation, responded by acknowledging Mr. Witkoff’s “contradictory statements” and emphasizing that “actual positions will be clarified at the negotiating table”.
“We are prepared to foster trust regarding potential concerns about Iran’s enrichment activities, yet the principle of enrichment itself is non-negotiable,” he affirmed.
Diplomatic Engagements
The talks in Rome occur amidst a surge of diplomatic engagements.
Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, visited Tehran recently, conveying a personal message from King Salman to Ayatollah Khamenei, and also met with Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran cautioned that any US military action would be met with retaliatory measures targeting American bases in the region, many of which are located in neighboring Arab countries.
Concurrently, Mr. Araghchi visited Moscow and delivered a letter from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Iran and Russia have strengthened their military alliances since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, with allegations of Tehran providing drones to support Moscow’s military operations.
The Russian parliament recently ratified a 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia. However, this agreement does not encompass a mutual defense clause.
Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi concluded a two-day visit to Tehran this week, engaging with Iranian nuclear officials and the foreign minister in an effort to ease tensions and reinstate inspection protocols.
Prevailing Distrust
Since Mr. Trump’s return to office, Ayatollah Khamenei has consistently voiced opposition to negotiations with Washington.
“Negotiating with this administration is neither logical, wise, nor honorable,” he declared in a speech earlier this year, shortly before consenting to the current round of discussions.
The Supreme Leader’s skepticism arises from Trump’s abandonment of the nuclear deal, the subsequent “maximum pressure” policy, and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in a US strike in Iraq.
Ayatollah Khamenei expressed satisfaction with the initial round of talks, acknowledging they were “implemented effectively”.
However, he cautioned he was “neither excessively optimistic nor unduly pessimistic”.
He has also previously cautioned that Iran would retaliate in the event of strikes against its nuclear program.
Certain officials, including his advisor Ali Larijani, have even suggested that Iran might be “compelled” to develop nuclear weapons if under attack.
“We are not pursuing weapons and have no issue with IAEA oversight, even indefinitely. But should you resort to bombing, Iran will have no alternative but to reconsider. This is not in your interest,” Mr. Larijani stated on state television recently.
Direct vs. Indirect Talks
Each side presents contrasting accounts regarding the conduct of the ongoing discussions.
The US asserts they are direct, while Iran describes them as indirect, with Oman playing a mediating role through the exchange of written communications.
Following the initial round in Muscat, Mr. Araghchi admitted to a brief interaction with Mr. Witkoff “as a matter of diplomatic courtesy” upon encountering each other.
US news outlet Axios, citing sources, reported that the lead negotiators engaged in conversation for approximately 45 minutes.
Tehran favors discretion, whereas Washington prefers public acknowledgement.
Following positive pronouncements from both parties regarding the first round, Iran’s currency value increased by 20%.
Iran’s leadership is keenly aware of public discontent over the nation’s challenging economic circumstances and the potential for associated unrest.
For the Islamic Republic, the apprehension extends beyond military threats to encompass the risk of public protests as well.