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Easter Egg Shrinkflation Bites as UK Shoppers Face Higher Prices
The Easter bank holiday weekend is here, but for consumers eager to purchase seasonal chocolate eggs, the annual tradition may come with a sour note. Many shoppers searching UK supermarkets for Easter treats are discovering they might feel short-changed, as widespread shrinkflation impacts popular chocolate eggs. This Easter, consumers are encountering smaller sized eggs at inflated prices across प्रमुख retailers.
Chocolate Eggflation: Key Findings
Research conducted by Which? reveals significant price hikes and size reductions in popular Easter egg products. For example:
- A Twix white chocolate Easter egg at Tesco increased in price from £5 to £6, while its size decreased from 316 grams to 258 grams. This represents a substantial 47% surge in the unit price.
- Terry’s chocolate orange mini egg pouches at Lidl now cost £1.35, up from 99p the previous year. Simultaneously, the pouch size has shrunk by 10g to 70g, leading to a significant 56% jump in the unit price.
The trend of rising unit prices extends across various retailers. Consumers at Asda face a 51% increase for the same mini eggs, while Sainsbury’s and Tesco show increases of 37% and 14% respectively.
Even products maintaining their size are experiencing significant cost increases. A five-pack of 200g Cadbury Creme Eggs at Morrisons, priced at £2.62 in 2024, now retails for £4 this year.
While comparison shopping may offer some relief, the pervasive nature of rising costs limits the extent to which consumers can find bargains in the current market.
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Impact of Cocoa Market Instability
This marks the second consecutive year of elevated Easter egg prices, primarily driven by considerable instability in the cocoa market.
Despite a recent dip in cocoa futures from a high of $12,646 per metric ton in mid-December to $8,470, prices remain significantly higher than in previous years. Cocoa futures have more than tripled since January 2023.
The gradual price escalation began two years prior, accelerating sharply at the commencement of 2024, mirroring reduced cocoa production levels.
Analysts largely attribute this downturn to the effects of climate change in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the dominant producers of global cocoa supplies.
Climate Change and Cocoa Production
Optimal cocoa cultivation necessitates warm, moderate temperatures, high humidity, and shade to shield plants from harsh weather elements. Consistent and moderate rainfall is also crucial.
However, in 2023, excessive rainfall in West Africa, exceeding twice the 30-year average, caused cocoa plants to rot and triggered an outbreak of black pod disease.
Concurrently, the swollen shoot virus spread through the region’s cocoa farms, devastating nearly a third of Ghana’s cocoa-growing land, according to surveys.
The El Nino phenomenon further exacerbated these challenges, bringing drought and intense heatwaves in the following year.
As the Climate Intelligence Unit noted, West African farmers experienced a drastic shift from excessive rainfall to drought conditions, compounded by oppressive heat. This sequence of extreme weather events severely impacted cocoa sowing, growth, and harvesting cycles.
Illegal Mining Further Diminishes Cocoa Supply
Adding to these woes, illegal gold mining, known as ‘galamsey’ in Ghana, has led to the conversion of cocoa plantations for mining activities.
Consequently, global cocoa production decreased by 13% to 4.5 million metric tonnes in the 2023/24 season, as estimated by the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO).
The global cocoa deficit reached a substantial 441,000 metric tonnes, the largest in over sixty years. The cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio, a key indicator of cocoa pricing, fell to a 46-year low of 27%, signaling a significant supply shortfall.
While the ICCO projects a rebound in cocoa production to approximately 4.8 million metric tonnes in the 2024/25 season, this improvement may not immediately translate to lower Easter egg prices for consumers next year.
Chocolate Manufacturers Prepare Consumers for Pricey Treats
Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelez, the owner of Cadbury, indicated at a conference in February that consumers should anticipate chocolate prices increasing by as much as 50%. He stated this price adjustment is a necessary reflection of market realities.
Lindt & Sprüngli’s finance chief, Martin Hug, echoed this sentiment shortly after, announcing that their business would raise prices by a double-digit percentage in the current year to mitigate elevated cocoa costs.
The premium chocolate brand has already increased prices by 30% over the past three years, including a 6.3% rise in 2024.
Consumer Sensitivity to Price Hikes
However, companies must exercise caution regarding excessive price increases. Nestlé, for instance, implemented a modest 1.5% price increase last year, compared to 7.5% in 2023, after observing consumers shifting towards more affordable brands.
This cautious approach resulted in a slower organic sales growth for the Swiss conglomerate behind brands like Kit Kat and Nesquik. Sales expanded by only 2.2% in 2024, significantly lower than the 7.2% growth experienced the previous year.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, points out that companies like Nestlé now face a difficult situation. They are contending with further increases in raw material costs for core product lines while having limited capacity to raise prices further.
She further noted that consumer behavior already indicates a trend towards cheaper alternatives or reduced consumption of favorite chocolate bars.
Potential for Even Higher Easter Egg Costs in Future
Even budget-conscious chocolate enthusiasts may need to curtail their spending further if companies opt to pass on the costs of recently implemented tariffs.
Earlier this month, former US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all US goods imports. This action has unsettled markets and heightened concerns about a potential global recession.
He also initiated ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, including a 21% duty on products from the Ivory Coast, before temporarily suspending them for 90 days just hours later.
Authorities in the Ivory Coast, a significant cocoa exporter to the US (200,000 to 300,000 metric tons annually), have cautioned that these tariffs could push cocoa prices even higher.
This, in turn, would inflate production costs for American chocolate manufacturers, likely leading to further price increases for consumers at the retail level.
Even if the Ivory Coast avoids future import tariffs, Lale Akoner, a global market analyst at eToro, warns of additional challenges posed by impending environmental regulations.
Starting in December 2025, large and medium-sized businesses importing cocoa into the European Union must demonstrate that their cocoa originates from deforestation-free regions. Failure to comply could result in fines and import restrictions.
Rabobank research from last year estimated that compliance with the due diligence requirements of this new system alone could add between 0.29% and 4.3% to import values.
This excludes the considerable expenses associated with assisting suppliers in adapting their supply chains to eliminate deforestation.
Considering the multiple challenges confronting chocolate producers, next year’s Easter holiday might present even greater difficulties in delivering affordable Easter eggs to UK confectionery lovers.
Akoner concludes, “As consumers maintain their holiday traditions, the chocolate industry faces a complex environment influenced by increasing tariffs and economic strains.”
“Their capacity to adapt will be critical in striking a balance between providing cherished holiday treats and managing economic realities.”