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Syria after Assad: Hope and Uncertainty in a Nation in Transition
Damascus, Syria – On the morning of December 8, 2024, anticipation filled the air at the Lebanese border. Hoping for entry into Syria as soon as the checkpoint opened, uncertainty about what lay ahead was palpable. The decades-long rule of Bashar al-Assad had ended. Opposition forces had made significant advances, capturing key cities, including Aleppo. The reality unfolding was almost unbelievable: Syria was experiencing freedom after years of authoritarian rule.
For many Syrians, life under the Assad dynasty, spanning over half a century with Hafez al-Assad’s reign from 1971 to 2000 and Bashar’s subsequent 24-year presidency, was the only reality. This era was marked by disappearances, imprisonment, and the devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, claiming countless Syrian lives.
Personal experiences echoed the national trauma. Early in the 2011 uprising, and on several occasions thereafter, I was detained. I witnessed brutal beatings and heard harrowing screams of torture. Even after my departure from Syria in 2013, I learned of security forces raiding and vandalizing my Damascus apartment.
The prospect of ever returning home faded. Then, unexpectedly, the dictatorship crumbled in just over a week. Crossing the border without fear of arrest, witnessing jubilant rebel fighters discharging celebratory gunfire amidst street celebrations, an overwhelming mix of laughter and tears welled up.
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For weeks, Umayyad Square in Damascus transformed into a central location for public celebrations. Conversations flowed freely, encompassing politics and the future of Syria, engaging everyone from street vendors and taxi drivers to young shoe cleaners. Such open dialogue was unimaginable under Assad’s regime, where any form of dissent could lead to severe repercussions.
However, four months later, the situation has become more nuanced. While notable progress in social freedoms is evident, anxieties are growing about the nature of the nascent democracy and the influence of Islam within the new governing structure. A critical question remains: will these newfound liberties endure, or are they, as some fear, merely temporary?
Homecoming for the Exiled
Rawda Café, situated in central Damascus across from Parliament, now serves as a gathering spot for intellectuals, engaging in discussions about culture over shisha. Previously, this café was notorious for political arrests, with whispers of regime informants among the staff.
Today, the atmosphere is drastically different. The café now hosts public talks and live music. Prominent figures who had previously fled the country are returning, often met with celebratory welcomes featuring traditional music and drums.
Syrian journalist Mohammad Ghannam, who endured months of imprisonment under Assad before seeking refuge in France, embodies this return. His elation upon returning is unmistakable.
“Everyone who can return, should return to rebuild the country,” he asserted. “There is an unprecedented opportunity now, unlike anything before December 8, 2024.”
Reflecting on the past constraints, he noted: “Even mosque preachers required official approval for their sermons. Now, freedom is complete. During Friday prayers, the Imam spoke about personal freedom and its boundaries concerning the freedoms of others.”
Odai al-Zobi, holding a PhD in philosophy and known for his political essays and short stories on freedom, also recently returned to Syria after 14 years in exile, initially for studies, but prolonged due to his outspoken criticism of the former regime.
“My books were once prohibited here,” he recounted. “Now, censorship is absent, and all literature is accessible. I am amazed by the public’s eagerness to read and learn.”
Ali al-Atassi, a Syrian documentary filmmaker and son of former President Noureddine al-Atassi, who was ousted by Hafez al-Assad, concurs. “The rules have fundamentally changed, unveiling numerous possibilities for the nation.”
Preserving Cultural Expression
Syria’s dynamic arts and culture have historically been a source of national pride. While the Assad regime outwardly supported cultural activities to project a refined image, it simultaneously suppressed dissenting artistic voices, with some artists and writers facing fatal consequences for their regime critiques.
Possession of certain books alone could lead to arrest. Currently, bookstores across the capital display a wide array of titles, including previously forbidden political works. Cinema clubs are now screening films that were once banned.
In the weeks following Assad’s removal, a cultural vacuum arose as the interim government delayed appointing a Culture Minister. Musicians and artists proactively organized to safeguard the cultural sphere.
However, new concerns are emerging. While the Assad era suppressed political discourse, there are now anxieties that religious authorities might impose restrictions on art forms deemed to be irreligious.
Yet, concrete evidence of this remains absent. Dr. Maher Al Sharaa, brother of the interim president, was observed attending a performance at the city’s Opera House with his family, enjoying a Syrian musicians’ rendition of Vivaldi, seemingly like any family enjoying a cultural outing.
Post-Assad, Beit Farhi, a historic house in Damascus’s Jewish quarter, hosted a cultural event centered around cinema, music, theatre, and performances. An all-female orchestra performed songs celebrating revolutions and martyrs, moving some audience members to tears.
“This is a valuable opportunity to discuss among ourselves how to protect and bolster the art scene in Syria,” stated Noura Murad, a choreographer.
Mr. al-Atassi remains optimistic, stating, “I believe Syrians will resist any attempts by this regime to intrude on their personal lives and dictate public behavior.”
Power Dynamics and Governance
When Ahmed al-Sharaa, who spearheaded the rebel offensive against Assad, was appointed president by a military council on January 29th, he emphasized in his address the urgency to “legitimately and legally fill the power vacuum.”
Months later, however, doubts persist regarding the establishment of a sustainable democracy. A lack of accountability mechanisms for officials, including the president, remains until a permanent constitution is ratified and elections take place.
“In recent months, the ruling powers have shown reluctance to share authority and integrate other political and social groups,” argued Mr. Al-Atassi. “Without broadening the political landscape to include diverse voices, Sharaa might struggle to reintegrate Syria into the international community.”
In February, a two-day national dialogue at the People’s Palace in Damascus aimed to discuss Syria’s future. Critics, however, deemed the event rushed and insufficient to address all critical issues effectively.
Abdulhay Sayed, a Syrian legal expert and managing partner at Sayed and Sayed law firm, characterized it as neither representative nor genuinely consensual.
“Significant segments of Syrian society felt excluded or underrepresented,” he contended. “[It] appeared designed to project a semblance of widespread agreement.”
Yet, he acknowledged, “It does indicate a degree of willingness from the new leadership to broaden consultations.”
Sharaa, formerly the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has publicly committed to establishing a nation with “free and impartial elections.”
He also initiated a committee to draft a constitutional declaration, outlining Syria’s trajectory for a five-year transition. However, the resulting declaration lacked provisions for the separation of powers.
“He must demonstrate greater commitment to political participation from all factions,” Mr. Al-Atassi stressed.
Some inclusive appointments have been made, such as a Christian woman as Minister for Social Affairs and the head of the White Helmets as Minister of Emergencies and Disasters. Nonetheless, concerns have arisen over the appointment of Sharaa’s brother as head of presidential affairs.
“Key sovereign positions are now held by high-ranking former HTS members,” noted Mr. Sayed.
Mr. Al-Atassi further observed that “highly qualified experts in international law were not invited to participate in the Cabinet, being overlooked.”
The Minister of Justice holds a degree in Sharia law rather than expertise in Syria’s Civil Code, which is rooted in French and Ottoman legal traditions. Questions arise about the potential application of Sharia-based codes over existing civil laws.
“So far, the new government has not attempted to replace existing legal codes with Sharia-inspired legislation,” stated Mr. Sayed. However, he added, “This remains an area under close observation.”
“The paramount concern is whether judicial independence will be restored and effectively protected. This poses a significant challenge.”
“There is limited evidence suggesting a genuine commitment from the new leadership to re-establishing an independent judiciary.”
Concerns over Freedoms for Women and Religious Minorities
Under Assad, women in Syria enjoyed relatively equal rights, including parliamentary representation since the 1950s and active participation across society. While no new formal regulations have explicitly curtailed these rights, subtle indicators of potential shifts are emerging.
Within the interim government, only one woman holds a ministerial position. Research from University College London and McGill University indicates concerns among women’s rights advocates about HTS potentially enforcing a strict interpretation of Islamic law, potentially limiting women’s mobility, dress, and public engagement.
“A crucial aspect to monitor is the status of women judges, who constitute approximately 35 to 40 percent of the judiciary – whether they will face marginalization or dismissal,” Mr. Sayed cautioned. “While no such trends are yet evident, continuous vigilance is crucial.”
Regarding religious freedoms, no new laws overtly restrict social practices. However, some Syrians report witnessing actions suggestive of attempts to enforce Islamic norms.
The Ministry of Justice has instituted separate entrances for men and women in its facilities. Reports also surface of individuals distributing flyers on buses and at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, urging women to adopt full-face veils.
In Christian neighborhoods of the capital, vehicles have been recorded broadcasting preachers advocating for Islam over loudspeakers. An order to close bars and restaurants in the Old City’s Christian quarter was rescinded only after widespread public opposition.
Observers of Islam express unease. Damascus is historically known for its tolerance, but the new authorities’ potential Salafi background (a strict Sunni Muslim sect) raises apprehensions in some quarters.
“There is a growing emphasis on a return to religious values,” Mr. Sayed observed. “This poses a significant challenge to those who uphold democracy, the rule of law, and equal citizenship.”
However, Husam Jazmati, a Syrian academic researching Islamic movements at Impact, a civil society research organization, argues that Sharaa “resists both Islamist and non-Islamist political movements [and] neither intends nor believes it feasible to establish an Islamic state.”
“They neither desire to, nor are they capable of it.”
Even if the government aimed to enforce stringent practices, the question remains whether they could succeed. Alaa El Din Al Sayyek, a Damascus-based Imam, believes public resistance would be significant.
“It is impossible; our society will not accept it,” he stated. “We have coexisted harmoniously with diverse sects for generations, even during turbulent times. The Quran explicitly states: ‘There shall be no compulsion in [acceptance of] the religion.'”
Conflicting Visions for Syria’s Path Forward
Tensions are escalating, with violent incidents in coastal regions causing over 1,400 deaths, predominantly among Alawites, purportedly as retaliation for attacks on Syrian security forces.
In northeast Syria, despite the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) victory over IS in 2019, camps still accommodate approximately 56,000 individuals, many linked to Islamic State group (IS) suspects, over half a decade after the jihadists’ territorial defeat in Syria.
The central question confronting the nation is Syrians’ vision for their future. Disagreements are surfacing, creating friction between the leadership and HTS, according to Mr. Jazmati.
He suggests that while Sharaa’s inner circle aims for “a conservative, economically liberal” state, they struggle to restrain elements within their ranks—trusted appointees in various positions—from attempting to impose a stricter Islamic character on public life in Syria.
The International Crisis Group think tank echoes similar concerns, stating that Syria is “living on borrowed time.”
“The interim government is facing financial shortfalls, security forces are overstretched, poverty is intensifying, and insurgency is brewing on the periphery. External interference persists. Western sanctions impede leaders’ capacity to rebuild and prevent further fragmentation or a relapse into civil war.”
Mr. Al-Atassi believes the solution is straightforward: Sharaa must foster a more inclusive political environment. “Currently, Syria has nominations, not elections,” he observed. “This is highly precarious.”
After a pause, he added: “A new dictatorship could be forming, but I doubt the Syrian populace, after five decades, would accept another dictatorship.”
Regarding the prospects for lasting democracy? “We must wait and see,” he said. “But I am far from optimistic.”
A broader issue also looms: the potential decline in faith in democracy itself, given the nation’s recent history.
Mr. Sayed believes this is happening. “While Assad-era constitutions nominally proclaimed political freedoms… our experience of political modernity has been characterized by shelling and detention camps,” he stated.
“Large segments of the Syrian population have lost confidence in the promises of political modernity.”
Among the numerous challenges confronting the new leadership, addressing this erosion of trust may be paramount as they navigate a new path for Syria’s future.