Is Yellowstone's supervolcano on the brink of erupting? Concerning study reveals just how close the enormous magma reserve is to the surface

Importance Score: 72 / 100 🔴

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Magma Chamber Depth Revealed in New Study

Yellowstone, recognized as one of the world’s largest active volcanoes and officially classified as a ‘supervolcano’, has been the subject of intense scientific scrutiny. Concerns linger about the potential for a cataclysmic eruption. Should this supervolcano erupt, experts suggest the northwestern United States could face a prolonged nuclear winter and widespread global famine. Now, scientists are offering new insights into the likelihood of such a devastating event.

Proximity of Yellowstone’s Magma Chamber to the Surface

A new study has revealed a potentially concerning detail about Yellowstone: its magma chamber is situated merely 2.3 miles (3.8km), or approximately 12,500 feet, beneath the Earth’s surface. To put this marginal distance into perspective, it is roughly equivalent to the span separating Buckingham Palace and St Paul’s Cathedral in London.

Eruption Timeline and Current Assessment

Having remained dormant for around 640,000 years, some experts and local residents speculate that Yellowstone’s next eruption is long overdue. However, the research team involved in this latest study does not believe an eruption is imminent.

Yellowstone’s Location and Magma System

Yellowstone, a globally renowned volcano, is nestled beneath a national park that extends across three states: Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Beneath this scenic landscape lies a substantial magma chamber, a dynamic reservoir of molten and superheated rock, as well as hazardous gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S).

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Yellowstone is located beneath a national park spanning three states – Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. Pictured, the Grand Prismatic Spring at the national park

Yellowstone’s magma chamber spans an area 55 miles by 30 miles, extending from 2.3 miles (3.8 km) below Earth’s surface to 10 miles down

Investigating the Magma Chamber’s Structure

Scientists have been aware of the magma chamber’s existence for a considerable time but have strived to pinpoint the precise location of its uppermost boundary and analyze its composition. To gain a clearer understanding, researchers employed hundreds of portable and truck-mounted seismometers. These instruments were used to create 2D images of the subsurface beneath Yellowstone’s caldera – its basin-shaped volcanic depression.

By utilizing artificial seismic waves, the team determined that rhyolite, a type of igneous rock, constitutes Yellowstone’s primary magma chamber. This chamber is extensive, covering an area of 55 miles by 30 miles and reaching depths from 2.3 miles (3.8 km) to 10 miles below the surface.

According to a 2015 study by the University of Utah, an even larger magma reservoir exists beneath this upper chamber. This lower reservoir, composed of low-silica basalt, contains significantly less molten rock. It resides at a depth of 12 to 28 miles (19 to 45km) and has a volume of 11,035 cubic miles (46,000 cubic km).

Composition of the Upper Magma Chamber

The researchers successfully located the top of the uppermost chamber and ascertained that solid rock comprises 86 percent of its upper section. The remaining 14 percent consists of pore spaces. Significantly, these pore spaces are approximately half-filled with molten material and half-filled with volatile gases and liquid.

Old Faithful geyser erupting at Yellowstone National Park. Scientists think the source of heat that powers Yellowstone’s vast volcanic system back to at least 50 million years ago

Experts used hundreds of portable and truck-mounted seismometers to render 2D seismic reflection images of the ground beneath Yellowstone’s caldera. Pictured, a portable seismometer deployed at Yellowstone

What are supervolcanoes?

Supervolcanoes are essentially exceptionally large volcanoes. They possess the capacity to generate eruptions with substantial repercussions for the global climate and ecosystem. A modern-day supervolcano eruption could trigger a prolonged nuclear winter and widespread global starvation.

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Gas Release and Eruption Risk

Volatile gases, such as CO2 and H2O, are released from the magma and tend to accumulate at the upper reaches of the magma chamber because of their buoyancy. However, a significant portion of this gas escapes through Yellowstone’s surface features, including small ground fissures that emit hot mud (known as mud volcanoes). This natural venting prevents gas from accumulating to hazardous concentrations, thereby mitigating the risk of dangerous pressure buildup.

‘If a conduit exists, these gases can vent to the surface,’ explained Professor Fan-Chi Lin, a geophysicist at the University of Utah and co-author of the study.

Yellowstone volcano experienced a catastrophic eruption 630,000 years ago, leading to concerns about a potential repeat event. Fortunately, these new findings suggest that the long-dormant Yellowstone volcano does not pose an immediate eruption threat, rendering such fears ‘unwarranted.’

The study, published in Nature, offers ‘crucial insights’ into the architecture of Yellowstone’s magma system, according to the researchers. ‘We now possess a greater understanding of the heat source powering Yellowstone and the distribution of melt,’ stated Mike Poland, a geophysicist at the US Geological Survey.

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in Philippines in June 1991 with streets covered in ash give an idea of what an aftermath could look like. It was the second-largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, behind only the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in Alaska

‘This enhanced understanding can influence our assessment of the volcanic hazard.’

Yellowstone’s Popularity Despite Volcanic Potential

Despite its immense power, Yellowstone National Park’s renowned volcanic activity attracts approximately 4 million visitors annually from across the globe. One of the park’s most iconic geothermal attractions is the Old Faithful geyser, which periodically erupts jets of boiling water every 44-125 minutes.

Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanic eruptions remain notoriously difficult to forecast. Other volcanic areas under close observation include Campi Flegrei in Italy and Santorini in Greece. Researchers have previously indicated that Campi Flegrei, a densely populated region inhabited by 360,000 people, may be approaching its first eruption in 485 years.

COULD AN ERUPTION AT THE YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO BE PREVENTED?

Recent research found a small magma chamber, known as the upper-crustal magma reservoir, beneath the surface

NASA proposes that drilling as deep as six miles (10km) into the Yellowstone supervolcano and injecting water at high pressure could effectively cool it down.

Despite an estimated cost of $3.46 billion (£2.63 billion), NASA considers this approach ‘the most feasible solution.’

Furthermore, harnessing the geothermal heat generated could potentially offset the project’s expenses. It could be used for a geothermal power plant, producing electricity at highly competitive rates of around $0.10 (£0.08) per kWh.

However, this method of mitigating a supervolcano also carries the risk of inadvertently triggering the very eruption it aims to prevent.

‘Drilling directly into the top of the magma chamber would present significant risks,’ but carefully drilling from the flanks might prove viable.

This USGS graphic shows how a ‘super eruption’ of the molten lava under Yellowstone National Park would spread ash across the United States

Beyond the inherent dangers, implementing a cooling system for Yellowstone through drilling would be an extremely protracted process. Progress might only occur at a rate of one meter per year, suggesting that complete cooling could take tens of thousands of years.

Even with such a long-term effort, success would not be guaranteed for centuries, if not millennia.


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