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US and Iran Engage in Indirect Discussions on Nuclear Program in Oman
In a bid to salvage the troubled Iran nuclear deal, officials from the United States and Iran have recently engaged in indirect negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman. These talks aim to find a path forward regarding Iran’s controversial nuclear programme, which remains a point of international contention and a key focus of global security discussions.
The prior nuclear accord, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was abandoned by then-US President Donald Trump in 2018. His administration’s withdrawal from the agreement led to the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Iran, a move that heightened tensions and significantly strained relations between the two nations.
Current US leadership has voiced concerns about the trajectory of the nuclear discussions and cautioned about potential military intervention should diplomatic efforts prove unsuccessful.
Concerns Surrounding Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
The Iranian government maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful civilian applications.
Despite Tehran’s assertions that it has no intention of developing atomic weapons, numerous nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear monitoring body, have expressed skepticism. These international bodies question the true nature of Iran’s nuclear activities and its long-term objectives.
International apprehension regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions intensified after the discovery of clandestine nuclear facilities within the nation in 2002.
This development was viewed as a breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an international accord signed by Iran and nearly all other countries.
The NPT permits signatory nations to utilize nuclear technology for non-military purposes, such as advancements in medicine, agriculture, and energy production. However, the treaty explicitly prohibits the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Progression of Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities
Since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has progressively contravened crucial provisions of the agreement. These actions are reportedly in response to the reimposition of economic sanctions and perceived breaches of the accord by other signatories.
Iran has significantly expanded its uranium enrichment capabilities by installing thousands of sophisticated centrifuges, specialized equipment designed to purify uranium. This action directly contravenes the restrictions stipulated in the JCPOA.
Producing nuclear weaponry necessitates uranium enriched to a 90% purity level. Under the JCPOA, Iran was restricted to possessing no more than 300kg of uranium enriched to a maximum of 3.67%, a level deemed suitable for civilian nuclear energy and scientific research, but inadequate for constructing nuclear explosives.
However, by March 2025, IAEA reports indicated that Iran possessed approximately 275kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity. This quantity, if further enriched, could theoretically provide enough material to construct several nuclear devices.
US intelligence sources suggest Iran could potentially refine this 60% enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels, sufficient for one nuclear bomb, within approximately one week. Nevertheless, these sources estimate that the actual construction of a functioning nuclear weapon would take considerably longer, ranging from one to eighteen months. Some independent experts suggest a rudimentary nuclear device could be assembled in a shorter timeframe, possibly within six months.
Reasons Behind US Withdrawal from the Nuclear Agreement
Beginning in 2010, the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union imposed extensive economic sanctions on Iran. These measures were implemented due to growing international concerns that Iran’s nuclear programme was covertly aimed at developing nuclear weapons.
These sanctions severely impacted Iran’s economy, effectively halting international oil sales and freezing an estimated $100 billion of the nation’s foreign assets. The Iranian economy subsequently experienced a deep recession, and the national currency plummeted to historic lows, triggering soaring inflation.
In 2015, after protracted negotiations, Iran and six world powers—the US, China, France, Russia, Germany, and the UK—reached the JCPOA agreement. This landmark accord was intended to address international concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The JCPOA placed verifiable limitations on Iran’s nuclear activities and granted the IAEA unprecedented access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. It also authorized inspections of suspect locations to ensure compliance.
In exchange for these stringent restrictions on its nuclear program, international powers committed to lifting the imposed economic sanctions against Iran.
The JCPOA was designed to have a lifespan of up to 15 years, after which key restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program were scheduled to expire.
Current Objectives of the US and Israel
Former President Trump’s announcement regarding discussions with Iran reportedly surprised Israel. Trump had consistently stated his intention to secure a “better” agreement than the JCPOA. However, Iran has thus far refused to consider renegotiating the existing accord.
Trump had previously issued warnings suggesting potential military action against Iran if a new agreement was not reached.
His former National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, articulated that the US objective was the “full dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear programme. This encompasses the cessation of uranium enrichment activities, weaponization efforts, and the dismantling of Iran’s strategic missile program.
Conversely, Iran’s stated objective in negotiations is to secure an agreement that limits, but does not eliminate, its nuclear program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions.
“Our aim is to achieve an equitable and respectful agreement from a position of equality,” stated Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Despite Trump’s earlier indications of “direct talks,” Araghchi clarified that the Oman negotiations were indirect, with only a brief exchange occurring between him and US envoy Steve Witkoff as both delegations departed.
Araghchi affirmed Iran’s willingness to engage with the US, contingent upon Washington’s commitment to rule out any “military options” in addressing the nuclear issue.
Potential for US and Israeli Military Action Against Iran
Both the United States and Israel possess the military capacity to conduct strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, such an operation would be exceedingly complex, fraught with risks, and carry uncertain prospects for success.
Critical Iranian nuclear sites are heavily fortified and located deep underground, necessitating the use of highly specialized bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating hardened targets. While the US military inventory includes such munitions, it is not publicly known whether Israel possesses similar capabilities.
Iran would almost certainly mount a robust defense against any military attack. Retaliatory measures could include targeting US assets and interests in the region, as well as launching missile strikes against Israel.
Any large-scale military operation against Iran would likely require the US to utilize its extensive network of military bases in the Gulf region, as well as deploy aircraft carriers to the area.
However, regional nations such as Qatar, which hosts the largest US airbase in the Middle East, might be hesitant to provide support for an attack on Iran, fearing potential Iranian reprisals and regional instability.