Is Ethiopia at war again? A look at the rebellion in one of its most powerful regions

Importance Score: 65 / 100 🔴

In Ethiopia’s Amhara region, a former lawyer, Asres Mare Damte, now leads a faction of the Fano, a disparate collection of armed groups engaged in escalating conflict with the national military. This burgeoning insurgency in a populous and influential area of Ethiopia highlights the fragile state of the nation.

Simmering Conflict in Amhara

The Amhara conflict has largely unfolded away from public attention due to restricted access and widespread insecurity. However, a rare interview with Asres, a leading figure in a prominent Fano faction, coupled with accounts from individuals within the region, offers insight into the conflict’s profound repercussions.

Ethiopia’s central government faces a long-standing challenge in maintaining unity among its diverse ethnic groups and competing interests. This delicate balance has fractured into open warfare in the past, most notably in the Tigray region.

Motivations of the Amhara Rebels

The Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group with a history of dominance in national politics, are central to this conflict. While some rebels aspire to restore Amhara political ascendancy, they also articulate grievances related to ethnic violence targeting Amharas in various parts of the country where they constitute a minority.

The true scale of the Amhara unrest has remained difficult to ascertain since the Fano’s emergence during anti-government demonstrations in 2016.

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Shifting Alliances and Grievances

Political alliances within Ethiopia are fluid. Notably, during the Tigray war, Fano militias fought alongside Ethiopian government troops. Subsequently, perceived unfavorable terms of the peace agreement led to a reversal, with the Fano turning their weapons against the federal authorities.

Asres recounts his pre-insurgency activism, stating that he organized peaceful rallies to protest the killings of Amhara people. He claims repeated arrests and ultimately fled in 2022 following a third arrest warrant.

Currently, Asres and his fellow fighters reportedly live under constant threat of Ethiopian military drone attacks. He has made assertive, though unconfirmed, pronouncements regarding their battlefield successes.

Fano Claims of Territorial Control

Speaking from the Gojjam area of Amhara, a region experiencing intense fighting, he asserted to the Associated Press that the Fano has dominion over 80% of Amhara, a mountainous area home to over 22 million inhabitants. He further claimed the capture of “numerous enemy soldiers.”

Contradicting these claims, an Amhara regional security official stated last month that the government had “liberated” 2,225 out of 4,174 subdistricts within Amhara. The extent of Fano territorial control remains unclear.

Escalation of Fighting and Military Response

Combat intensified from mid-March onwards, initiated by a Fano offensive across Amhara. The Ethiopian military declared that it had “crushed” this offensive, claiming 300 Fano combatant deaths; however, reports of continued clashes persist.

Amhara’s substantial population has historically fueled expansionist pressures, with territorial claims extending to western Tigray. Fano and Amhara regional forces seized this area during the Tigray conflict. Their exclusion from subsequent peace negotiations and the possibility of a referendum to decide western Tigray’s future fueled further resentment.

Asres characterized the situation as “not a genuine peace.”

Guerrilla Warfare and Impact on Civilians

Following months of low-intensity skirmishes, Amhara descended into overt rebellion in July 2023, marked by coordinated Fano offensives and the brief capture of several towns.

Subsequently, Fano forces retreated to rural areas, engaging in a protracted guerrilla campaign characterized by hit-and-run tactics, establishing checkpoints on crucial roadways, and frequently infiltrating major urban centers.

“Rule shifts weekly,” recounted a mother of three in Debre Markos, a southern town, describing alternating control between rebels and Ethiopian soldiers. She spoke anonymously, citing fear of reprisal.

ACLED, a conflict monitoring organization, documented 270 armed engagements between Fano and government forces between October 27 of the preceding year and January 31, alongside over a dozen assaults targeting healthcare facilities and medical personnel in Amhara since April of last year.

Local inhabitants and observers report displacement of local officials, fearing assassination, and the police’s diminished capacity to maintain order.

The regional education ministry reports the closure of over 3,600 schools throughout Amhara, many subjected to looting or damage, disrupting the education of 4.5 million children. The government assessed that 2.3 million individuals require food assistance in 2024, many residing in inaccessible regions.

“Safe travel between cities is impossible. Work has ceased,” stated Tadesse Gete, a barber based in Addis Ababa, originally from North Gondar, a major conflict epicenter. He reported his family’s displacement for safety.

Human Rights Concerns and Allegations of Abuse

Human rights organizations have leveled accusations against the Ethiopian military, citing abuses including extrajudicial killings, drone attacks on civilian populations, and forced disappearances targeting suspected Fano sympathizers. Human Rights Watch reported documenting attacks by Ethiopian soldiers and allied militias in at least 13 Amhara towns since August 2023.

The most egregious documented incident occurred in Merawi in February 2024, situated 30 kilometers south of Amhara’s regional capital. According to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, Ethiopian soldiers conducted door-to-door raids, summarily executing civilians following a Fano attack. The state-affiliated human rights commission confirmed at least 45 civilian fatalities.

“Ethiopian authorities have failed to undertake meaningful measures to hold perpetrators accountable,” stated Haimanot Bejiga, an Amnesty International researcher.

A government representative denied these accusations at the time, asserting that “civilians would never be targeted, and even surrendering combatants would not be killed.”

Witness accounts from Brakat detail another alleged incident on March 31, where soldiers reportedly rounded up and killed civilians after skirmishes with local armed groups. Witnesses, speaking anonymously due to fear of reprisal, reported seeing soldiers execute four women by shooting them at point-blank range after ordering them to kneel. One witness reported counting 28 corpses after the soldiers departed.

Government access restrictions to Brakat remain in place, and official comment is pending.

Stalled Negotiations and Continued Recruitment

The Ethiopian government has not responded to inquiries, while accusing the Fano of “terrorizing the populace.” Concurrently, regional peace councils have been established, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed acknowledged ongoing discussions with Fano groups “for some time.”

Negotiations have stalled, reportedly due to the Fano’s decentralized command structure and the absence of a unified leadership, hindering effective dialogue, according to Prime Minister Abiy.

The Fano continues to attract new members from disillusioned Amhara youth and military deserters. Andrag Challe, a 25-year-old recruit, views participation in the insurgency as the sole means to safeguard the Amhara community and enact political transformation in Ethiopia.

He argues that the military “serves the interests of the ruling party,” rather than the broader population.


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