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Gabon Gears Up for Presidential Election Following Political Transition
Gabon is preparing for a pivotal presidential election, a mere 19 months after a bloodless coup d’état ended the Bongo family’s five-decade reign. In a departure from trends in other African nations where military leaders have remained in power, Gabon is proceeding with a vote to select a new head of state, marking a significant moment in its political landscape. The upcoming Gabon election is heavily anticipated, with Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the leader of the coup, widely expected to win.
Brice Oligui Nguema Poised to Win Gabon’s Presidential Vote
Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the figurehead of the peaceful takeover and subsequent dominant political force, is the overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s presidential race. Having traded military attire for civilian suits, the articulate former commander of the Republican Guard is competing against seven other candidates for the nation’s top job.
Strong Popularity and Favorable Election Conditions
Benefiting from considerable public approval stemming from the removal of dynastic rule, and aided by electoral regulations that disqualified prominent rivals, the 50-year-old Oligui Nguema is widely tipped to secure an outright victory in the initial round of voting. His campaign slogan, “C’BON,” a play on the French phrase “c’est bon” meaning “it’s good,” resonates with many Gabonese citizens.
Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze: The Main Opposition Candidate
Oligui Nguema’s prospects of avoiding a second round are strengthened by the fragmented opposition, with his primary challenger being Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze, the final prime minister under former President Ali Bongo. Bilie-By-Nze, known as ACBBN, represents a contrasting vision for the nation’s future.
Victory in the presidential election would grant a seven-year term, providing the mandate and resources to pursue developmental and modernization initiatives at a pace envied by leaders in many crisis-stricken African countries.
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Gabon: A Nation Rich in Resources and Relative Stability
Gabon, with a population of just 2.5 million, is an established oil-producing nation and ranks as the world’s second-largest exporter of manganese. Its territory, situated along the equator, encompasses some of the most biodiverse regions of the Congo Basin rainforest, highlighting its environmental significance.
In recent history, aside from a severe post-election crackdown in Libreville in 2016, Gabon has experienced relative calm, contrasting sharply with the conflicts and instability affecting numerous neighboring countries. This stability provides a unique backdrop for the current political transition.
The August 2023 Coup: A Swift Political Shift
Oligui Nguema and his Republican Guard encountered no resistance when they seized power on August 30, 2023. This action occurred shortly after electoral authorities announced, in the early hours, that incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba had secured a third term with a purported 64% of the vote. The swiftness and lack of bloodshed underscored the widespread desire for political change.
Doubts over Election Credibility and Shifting Public Sentiment
The announced election results were widely viewed as lacking credibility. Ali Bongo, who succeeded his father Omar in 2009, had already experienced a narrow and highly contested victory in the 2016 election.
Public sympathy initially arose following a stroke he suffered in Saudi Arabia in 2018 and his subsequent recovery. However, public sentiment changed when he decided to seek a third term, despite visible health concerns. This decision fueled considerable resentment towards the perceived influence of his French-born wife, Sylvia Bongo Ondimba, and his son, Nourredin Bongo Valentin.
The military intervention, characterized by its peaceful nature, effectively prevented a continuation of the existing regime. The arrest of Sylvia and Nourredin Bongo, and the placement of Ali Bongo under house arrest in his private residence, sparked spontaneous celebrations among many Gabonese citizens who had grown tired of what they perceived as an entrenched dynasty.
Post-Coup Gabon: Consolidation and Outreach
The coup was met with widespread relief, even among administrative, political, and civil society elites. Oligui Nguema strategically capitalized on this sentiment, pursuing a broad base of support for his transitional government. He incorporated former government officials, opposition figures, and previously critical civil society representatives into the government and appointed institutions like the Senate.
Political prisoners were released, although Ali Bongo’s wife and son remain in custody, facing corruption allegations. Significantly, Oligui Nguema avoided the harsh crackdowns on dissent and media freedom that have become commonplace among military leaders in other Francophone African nations such as Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Diplomatic Relations and Economic Policies Under Nguema
In notable contrast to the anti-Western stance adopted by several regimes in West Africa, Oligui Nguema adopted a conciliatory diplomatic approach. He dispatched high-ranking officials to foster international goodwill and reassure Gabon’s traditional allies of his commitment to restoring civilian constitutional governance within a defined timeframe.
Relations with France, the former colonial power and a prior close ally of the Bongo regime, are cordial. The two nations recently agreed to transform Camp de Gaulle, the long-standing French military base in Gabon, into a joint training center.
Demonstrating political acumen and responsiveness to public desires, Oligui Nguema has accelerated public works and long-delayed projects to address public demand for change. In a climate of increasing support across Francophone Africa for stronger national interest protection, his government has acquired Gabonese assets from several international oil companies, including UK-based Tullow Oil.
Navigating Gabon’s Future: Challenges and Expectations
To alleviate pressures on government finances, Oligui Nguema has turned to regional financial markets for borrowing, while also working to reassure international partners. A significant portion of the $520 million raised via a Eurobond in February has been allocated to repaying existing debt. The government has also committed funds to settle outstanding debts with the World Bank.
However, once elected as Gabon’s president, as widely anticipated, Oligui Nguema will face considerable challenges. The transition period, in many respects, was the simpler phase, given the overwhelming public desire for change and limited constraints on his actions.
Widespread agreement existed regarding the inclusion of a ban on dynastic succession in the new constitution. When Oligui Nguema dismissed concerns from some parliamentarians about the concentration of executive power by abolishing the prime minister’s position, it generated minimal opposition.
This consolidation of power, however, means that the responsibility for meeting public expectations rests squarely on his shoulders. Prominent political and civil society figures, including veteran opposition leader Alexandre Barro-Chambrier and rainforest conservationist Marc Ona Essangui, have joined his transitional administration or political movement, Rassemblement des Bâtisseurs (RDB), and are likely to play significant roles in the post-election government.
Despite this broader coalition, the primary focus will remain on Oligui Nguema himself, as he confronts a range of complex issues in governing Gabon.
Balancing Conservation with Economic Realities
Gabon has long presented itself as a leader in rainforest conservation and the protection of its rich biodiversity. The nation has garnered international recognition for its strategic utilization of climate finance mechanisms, notably becoming the first sub-Saharan African nation to finalize a debt-for-nature swap in 2023.
However, this conservation-focused approach must be reconciled with economic imperatives to fully exploit other natural resources, especially minerals and oil, while also addressing the needs of rural communities seeking to protect their hunting and agricultural rights.
Addressing Urban Needs and Social Development Gaps
Urban populations, particularly in Libreville, home to nearly half of Gabon’s population, demand increased job opportunities and improved public services. This is crucial in a nation where social development indicators have lagged behind its relative wealth. Trade unionist Jean Rémy Yama, excluded from the presidential contest due to a nomination technicality, represents a significant segment of public opinion and could voice popular discontent.
For Brice Oligui Nguema, the most demanding phase of leadership is just beginning, as he transitions from transitional leader to elected president of Gabon.