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Colorado Springs — The geostationary (GEO) commercial satellite market is undergoing a significant evolution. Operators are adapting their strategies to address declining broadcast revenues, increasing competition from low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations, and the growing need for adaptable, economical solutions. This shift in the satellite industry is prompting innovation and new approaches to meet evolving demands for satellite connectivity.
Evolving GEO Satellite Market Dynamics
Historically, the GEO satellite industry witnessed competition for 15 to 20 large commercial communications satellite orders annually. These traditional satellites were substantial in size, comparable to a school bus, and weighed several tons.
However, recent data from Novaspace indicates a notable change. In 2024, only six commercial GEO comsat orders were placed, marking a two-decade low. Notably, half of these orders were for small GEO satellites, signaling a shift in market preference.
Rise of Small GEO Satellites
This evolving landscape is generating opportunities for companies specializing in innovative satellite solutions, such as 3D printing expert Swissto12. The Swiss firm is preparing to launch its inaugural 1,000-kilogram GEO spacecraft next year for Intelsat.
Swissto12 is part of an expanding group of specialists focused on small GEO platforms, which includes companies like Astranis, known for producing even more compact satellites.
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Interview with Swissto12 CEO Emile de Rijk
Emile de Rijk, CEO of Swissto12, anticipates that this emerging category of satellites will tap into previously unrealized market demand and drive GEO orders beyond historical peaks within the next five years.
In a recent discussion with SpaceNews’ Jason Rainbow, de Rijk explored topics such as the impact of evolving business cases on procurement strategies, the competitive landscape within the small GEO sector, and market forecasts for the near future.
GEO Business Case Evolution and Procurement
Shifting Factors Influencing GEO Operators
Emile de Rijk: Two primary factors are reshaping the traditional business models for GEO operators:
- Broadcast Revenue Decline: The broadcast sector, while still significant, is experiencing a single-digit annual revenue decrease. This reduced demand does not justify investments in large satellites with numerous channels. However, a smaller satellite with fewer channels and proportionally lower expenses can still represent a profitable venture.
- LEO Constellation Competition: Platforms like Starlink and other forthcoming LEO constellations are challenging GEO’s dominance in the broadband sector. While GEO broadband can compete with LEO in metrics like capacity, capital expenditure (CapEx), and satellite lifespan, specialization is often necessary. This includes focusing on secure connectivity, specific regional markets, or frequency bands not utilized by broadband constellations.
Specialized Applications Driving Small GEO Demand
Frequency bands like C-band, for example, are highly valuable in tropical regions, while L-band is exceptionally suited for Mobile Satellite Service applications.
These specialized use cases are typically smaller and more targeted than those served by large satellites, thereby reducing risk. Small GEOs offer a more adaptable and incremental approach to CapEx spending, aligning with the evolving market dynamics.
Large vs. Small GEO Satellites: Market Outlook
Continuing Relevance of Large GEOs
Interviewer: Is there still a substantial market for traditional, large GEO satellites?
Emile de Rijk: A robust market for large GEOs persists. Certain business cases necessitate substantial capacity delivered via GEO in a single deployment, which small GEOs cannot replace.
I do not foresee operators replacing a single large GEO satellite with multiple small GEOs.
Sovereign and Secure Connectivity Needs
Interviewer: How does the increasing emphasis on sovereign and secure connectivity affect the market?
Emile de Rijk: Many nations are seeking to establish autonomous communication infrastructures under their direct control and ownership.
For many countries, a massive military satellite is unnecessary. Instead, they require a compact, secure connectivity satellite suitable for dual-use applications. As more nations become space-capable, this will represent a primary acquisition target.
Smaller countries are unlikely to develop their own constellations due to impracticality. They are more inclined to acquire one or two highly targeted GEO satellites to meet sovereignty requirements. This is expected to become an increasingly important factor for the GEO market in general, and particularly for the small GEO segment.
Future GEO Market Predictions
Anticipated Growth in Small GEO Orders
Interviewer: What is your projection for GEO orders this year?
Emile de Rijk: I anticipate the market for large GEO telecom satellites to remain relatively stable. However, I foresee significant growth in demand for small GEO satellites. This demand is indirectly driven by business cases ideally suited for small GEOs, addressing needs currently unmet and thus not yet fully visible in the overall GEO market.
Evolving Market Split Between Satellite Sizes
Interviewer: How will the distribution between large and small GEO satellites evolve?
Emile de Rijk: Small GEO is becoming the preferred option where inaction would otherwise be considered. It represents market expansion rather than direct substitution. The observed decline in GEO orders is somewhat independent of the overall increase in connectivity demand.
While overall demand for connectivity is rising, net GEO satellite orders have decreased. This is because the nature of demand has shifted. Existing large GEO satellite platforms only address a portion of the current demand, leaving a substantial amount of unaddressed demand that small GEOs are now poised to capture.
Market Potential and Competition
Interviewer: Will demand for small GEOs be sufficient to restore the market to historical levels of 15-20 commercial communication satellite orders per year?
Emile de Rijk: By combining large GEO and small GEO orders, total order volume is likely to increase and could potentially exceed previous record highs.
Competitive Landscape in Small GEO Sector
Interviewer: Some competitors offer even smaller GEOs with shorter lifespans. How intense is the competition in this emerging sector?
Emile de Rijk: Business models vary. Some competitors utilize a capacity leasing model, while our customers typically operate their own satellites. Consequently, we often do not directly compete.
Regarding technical approaches, there are two main strategies:
- LEO Bus Upscaling: This approach aims to reduce costs by adapting a lower-cost LEO bus for GEO missions. However, this typically results in a shorter mission lifespan of around seven years instead of the standard 15 years.
- Engineered Small GEO: Our approach involves engineering a small GEO satellite by leveraging qualified components to achieve a balance between established heritage and innovative design.
Market Maturity and Future Demand
Interviewer: The increasing maturity of small GEO startups seems to be driving demand.
Emile de Rijk: We are observing strong demand and high levels of proposal activity. Many industry operators are approaching us with diverse use cases. Governments are also increasingly interested in investing in secure connectivity assets.
Execution is critical. It remains essential to deliver high performance and a reliable product that operators can depend on throughout the mission lifetime. We are targeting the typical 15-year lifespan for a GEO mission, which we believe remains the optimal approach.
Even for a smaller, more cost-effective satellite, it represents a significant investment for operators or nation-states who require dependable, long-term performance.