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Coastal Flooding Threatens to Worsen New York Housing Crisis
Good morning. Today, we examine how coastal flooding, a significant consequence of climate change, could exacerbate New York City’s housing shortage. We will also delve into the details of testimony from Columbia University’s former interim president regarding her recollection of a university report on antisemitism.
Coastal Flooding and Housing Vulnerability
New York City, a metropolis encircled by water, faces considerable risk from coastal flooding driven by climate change. Shoreline communities are particularly susceptible to these increasing threats.
This vulnerability presents a significant challenge for a city already grappling with a severe housing shortage. Rising sea levels threaten to inundate and destroy homes. A report by the Regional Plan Association, a New York-based urban research group, estimates that approximately 82,000 homes in the city and its adjacent suburbs could be lost within the next 15 years due to flooding. The same report highlights that the New York region currently needs 362,000 additional homes to alleviate overcrowding and provide permanent housing solutions for the shelter population. Alarmingly, this deficit is projected to more than triple by 2040.
Expert Analysis on Flood Risks and Housing
To further understand these findings, we consulted with Mihir Zaveri, who, alongside Hilary Howard, analyzed the aforementioned report.
Neighborhoods at Risk
Question: What neighborhoods face the highest risk of flooding?
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Answer: Areas situated along the coastline are inherently most susceptible to coastal flooding and rising sea levels. Within New York City, specific vulnerable areas include the Rockaways and South Ozone Park in Queens, Canarsie in Brooklyn, and communities along the southeastern coast of Staten Island. Notably, projected housing losses in Long Island areas, such as Hempstead, Babylon, and Islip, constitute nearly half of the overall anticipated impact.
Impact on the Housing Crisis
Question: If projections are accurate and substantial housing losses occur in the next 15 years, how will this affect the existing housing crisis?
Answer: The New York metropolitan area is already confronting a considerable housing shortage due to insufficient home construction in recent decades. High demand to reside in the region, coupled with limited housing availability, drives up housing costs. Any factor, including increased flood risk, that further diminishes the housing supply will inevitably worsen the existing housing shortage.
However, it is important to contextualize that the estimated 80,000 homes potentially lost to flooding represent only a fraction of a housing shortage that already measures in the hundreds of thousands and could escalate to a staggering 1.2 million homes when considering flood losses, population growth, and other contributing elements. Factors such as zoning regulations and development costs also play a more dominant role in amplifying the housing shortage.
Hurricane Sandy’s Legacy
Question: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive flooding on Staten Island in 2012. What became of the homes in its path? Were they rebuilt to withstand future powerful storms?
Answer: Hurricane Sandy inflicted severe damage, even complete destruction to entire blocks of homes, on Staten Island. Many of these vulnerable residences had been constructed on wetlands, which previously served as natural buffers against rising seawater. Consequently, hundreds of homes were not reconstructed. Instead, the state government acquired numerous properties, demolished the damaged structures, and restored the land to its natural wetland condition.
Despite these efforts, a significant number of homes in the area remain situated within flood zones, rendering them potentially vulnerable to future major storms. The report projects that over 1,500 Staten Island homes could be lost by 2040.
Flood Control and Resiliency Initiatives
Question: What is the status of city-wide flood protection plans and resiliency projects, such as those on the Lower East Side? How far along are these initiatives?
Answer: Flood control projects are known for their protracted timelines. A large-scale federal initiative aimed at shielding New York City from coastal storms is still pending federal government approval and is estimated to be at least 20 years from completion.
However, localized projects are showing progress. For instance, on the Lower East Side, the city has implemented “floodgates” and “flood walls” designed to act as barriers against rising floodwaters. This protective system is anticipated to be operational by the end of next year.
Adapting Housing for Flood Resilience
Question: An expert suggested that local officials must “rethink what a conventional home looks like.” How will the need to adapt impact communities with single-family homes?
Answer: We have already witnessed instances where homes will necessitate buyouts or relocation. Furthermore, we recognize the need for new, costly, and complex infrastructure projects to effectively manage rising water levels. The report suggests a shift towards higher-density housing, such as apartment buildings, in areas less prone to flooding. Achieving this at scale would require modifications to existing zoning rules. Potentially, this could gradually lead to a decrease in new single-family homes with yards and an increase in multi-unit dwellings.
The report also advocates for adapting building designs to enhance flood resistance and upgrading sewer systems.
“City of Yes” Plan and Housing Losses
Question: How will Mayor Adams’s “City of Yes” plan address potential housing losses from climate change?
The “City of Yes” plan, which aims to relax zoning rules across the city, could potentially enable developers to construct approximately 80,000 additional homes within New York City. This figure appears superficially similar to the projected number of homes expected to be lost to flooding by 2040 in the city, Westchester County, and Long Island.
However, it’s crucial to note that these figures are hypothetical. According to the report, the “City of Yes” initiative may only mitigate the city’s housing needs by around 14 percent by 2040. The city would still face a significant housing shortage, with a deficit of hundreds of thousands of homes.
Weather Forecast
Expect mostly sunny and windy conditions today, with temperatures reaching the mid-40s. The evening will be mostly clear with blustery winds and a low around 31 degrees.
Alternate-Side Parking Regulations
Alternate-side parking is in effect until Saturday (Passover).
Columbia University and Antisemitism Inquiry
Dr. Katrina Armstrong, former interim president of Columbia University, testified before a federal task force last week in a closed-door session. She stated that she could not recall specific details from the university’s report concerning antisemitism on campus.
During her testimony, she repeatedly mentioned that the past year was a “blur,” hindering her recollection of specifics and making it difficult to articulate what actions she had undertaken to combat antisemitism.
Investigation and University Response
Armstrong’s questioning was part of an ongoing investigation into antisemitism at Columbia University. The Trump administration had previously canceled approximately $400 million in federal funding to Columbia the previous month. Since then, the university has been engaging in efforts to demonstrate to the administration its commitment to addressing White House demands to strengthen the fight against antisemitism on campus.
The testimony occurred several days after Armstrong had resigned from her interim president role. Initially, the university announced that she would remain as chief executive of the university’s medical center. However, on Sunday, the medical center declared that Armstrong would take a sabbatical. Simultaneously, the university’s trustees issued a statement distancing themselves from her deposition, stating that her testimony did not reflect the university’s efforts to combat antisemitism.
“This testimony does not reflect the hard work undertaken by the university to combat antisemitism, harassment and discrimination and ensure the safety and well-being of our community,” the trustees asserted. They further added their “firm commitment to resolving the issues raised by our federal regulators, with respect to discrimination, harassment and antisemitism, and implementing the policy changes and commitments” outlined in a board letter dated March 21. Claire Shipman, formerly the board’s co-chair, was appointed as acting president following Armstrong’s resignation.
A transcript of Armstrong’s April 1 session was leaked to The Washington Free Beacon, a conservative news publication, which published it on Sunday. A government official confirmed the transcript’s authenticity. Reports indicate the transcript offers insight into the tensions arising between Columbia University and representatives of the Trump administration’s multiagency antisemitism task force. This task force is currently investigating at least 10 universities seeking to address what it perceives as disturbing antisemitic activity on campuses.
Metropolitan Diary
Dear Diary:
I was walking through Joan of Arc Park on the Upper West Side. An elderly woman was walking her small dog ahead of me.
A young man, seemingly rushed, passed me and then cut directly in front of the woman, causing her to abruptly stop.
“Sorry,” the young man said. “Please excuse me.”
The woman nodded, indicating it was alright.
“I was actually talking to your dog,” the young man then clarified.