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Climate Change Report: Thousands of Homes at Risk in New York City Suburbs
A recent report reveals a stark warning regarding the escalating housing crisis in the New York City metropolitan area. Driven by climate change and rising sea levels, flooding threatens over 80,000 residences in Staten Island, southeast Queens, and suburban areas east of the city within the next 15 years. This loss of homes is projected to significantly worsen the existing housing shortage across the region.
Projected Housing Losses Due to Rising Floodwaters
The study, issued by the Regional Plan Association, a civic nonprofit, indicates that extensive tracts of land across all boroughs are likely to become unsuitable for construction. This development is expected to exacerbate the area’s already critical housing shortage, potentially reaching a deficit of 1.2 million homes.
Moses Gates, Vice President for Housing and Neighborhood Planning at the Regional Plan Association and a report author, emphasized the urgency of the situation. “You’re going to need to construct additional residences merely to compensate for the dwellings lost within your own locality,” stated Gates.
Dual Challenges: Climate Change and Housing Deficit
This report reinforces growing concerns about the converging challenges of climate change and inadequate housing availability in coastal urban centers globally. The New York City region exemplifies this predicament.
New York City’s Struggle: Adapting to Climate Change
For decades, New York City and its neighboring suburbs have struggled to build sufficient housing to meet demand, contributing to soaring rental rates and property values. Simultaneously, the metropolitan area faces the daunting task of adapting to intensified flooding and extreme weather events triggered by global warming.
Amy Chester, Managing Director of Rebuild by Design, an organization focused on enhancing infrastructure resilience against storms and climate change, stressed the need for proactive measures. “The sooner we decide as a city to invest in resilience measures to assist neighborhoods in adapting — be it through fortification or relocation — the quicker we prevent bequeathing an even more significant crisis to future generations,” Chester asserted.
Geographic Areas at Highest Risk
While the report refrained from pinpointing specific neighborhoods at immediate risk of inundation, it projected that Long Island would bear a significant portion of the anticipated housing losses. Among the 82,000 homes potentially lost by 2040, over half are estimated to be located on Long Island, with Atlantic-facing towns like Babylon and Islip experiencing the most severe impact.
Vulnerable Areas: Long Island Sound and NYC Waterfronts
Communities along Long Island Sound, both on Long Island and in Westchester County, are also identified as susceptible. Within New York City, waterfront communities in southern Queens and Brooklyn, such as the Rockaways and Canarsie, are projected to experience the greatest losses.
Some recent construction initiatives on the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens, home to approximately 125,000 residents, are prioritizing flood protection alongside the development of dense, affordable housing options.
Furthermore, a newly implemented system of engineered berms in the Rockaways, resembling sand dunes but incorporating stone and steel cores, is designed to safeguard the ocean-facing side of the peninsula. However, protection measures on the bayside, which endures frequent flooding, remain limited.
Mitigation Efforts and Future Challenges
Across the city, various mitigation projects are in progress or have been completed. These include flood walls and floodgates in Manhattan’s Lower East Side and nature-based solutions like bluebelts, which integrate storm sewers with natural water bodies such as lakes and ponds.
Following the extensive damage caused by Superstorm Sandy on Staten Island’s eastern shore in 2012, the state acquired and demolished over 500 damaged residences. This initiative aimed to restore the land to its natural state through a process known as managed retreat. However, a comprehensive, large-scale plan to shield the entire city from coastal storms awaits federal government approval and is not expected to be fully realized for at least two decades.
Rethinking Housing in the Face of Global Warming
Experts argue that the implications of global warming necessitate a fundamental reassessment of conventional housing models. Max Besbris, a sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison specializing in housing and climate change, contends that local officials must “re-evaluate what a standard home looks like.”
Besbris suggests, “That implies increased housing density, more energy-efficient buildings, and potentially abandoning the suburban ideal of detached single-family homes with picket fences.”
Growing Housing Needs and Zoning Reform
The Regional Plan Association report analyzed current and future housing needs to ensure adequate housing availability for residents. It determined that the region currently requires 362,000 additional homes, partly to alleviate overcrowding and provide permanent housing for the homeless population, among other factors.
Looking ahead 15 years, this requirement is expected to more than triple to 1.2 million, considering population growth, flood-related housing losses, and general housing deterioration. The report advises that cities and towns should concentrate development in areas with comparatively lower flood risks and convenient access to public transportation and commercial centers.
Affordability Concerns and Development Costs
Warren Schreiber, President of the Queens Civic Congress, a coalition of civic associations from across Queens, concurred on the necessity of safeguarding residents from flood risks. However, he emphasized that new development must prioritize affordable housing, raising concerns about the financial implications.
“Who will bear the financial burden?” Schreiber questioned. “Will it fall on the shoulders of middle-income working-class families?”
Zoning Restrictions and Potential for Housing Growth
The report also utilized the National Zoning Atlas, a tool mapping local development restrictions, to assess where zoning regulations might permit increased housing construction. It concluded that current zoning codes could accommodate 580,000 additional homes – less than half of the identified need. However, the report acknowledged that other factors, such as funding and building codes, could further impede housing development.
This housing gap underscores the imperative for nearly every city, town, and village to revise zoning codes to facilitate greater housing construction, according to Mr. Gates, a co-author of the report.
Limited Progress in Zoning Adaptations
New York officials have undertaken efforts to modify zoning regulations to streamline construction in recent years, with varying degrees of success.
Two years prior, Governor Kathy Hochul advocated for statewide mandates for every city and town to accommodate increased housing. However, local leaders in suburban areas, particularly on Long Island and in Westchester County, opposed these initiatives.
Conversely, Mayor Eric Adams’ administration successfully advanced a plan known as “City of Yes,” potentially enabling the construction of approximately 80,000 additional homes over the next decade. Despite its approval by the City Council in December, the report indicates that this plan would only address 11 percent of the city’s total housing needs.