Importance Score: 25 / 100 🔵
The NCAA Women’s Final Four is set to tip off in Tampa, Florida, where top-ranked South Carolina aims to secure their place in history as the first repeat national champions in college basketball since 2016.
The tournament’s top seed, South Carolina, will clash with fellow Southeastern Conference (SEC) leader Texas in the evening’s opening semifinal. Following this matchup, overall top seed UCLA will face off against No. 2 seed Connecticut. The highly anticipated national championship game is scheduled for Sunday.
Here’s a breakdown of the key storylines and notable players to watch as the Final Four unfolds.
Final Four Seed Lineup: Good for Women’s Basketball?
Greif: The composition of the Final Four, featuring three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed, is a frequent debate in women’s basketball, unlike the men’s game. This is largely due to the sustained supremacy of a limited number of programs dating back to the 1980s. The consistent success of powerhouses such as Tennessee, Connecticut, and South Carolina amplifies the significance of an unexpected tournament surge from programs considered outsiders, like Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Arizona, or Iowa.
Dynasties in women’s college basketball are not detrimental; they forge compelling narratives, especially when these dominant teams face challenges. This year, UCLA emerges as the fresh contender. Despite holding a No. 1 seed, UCLA is not a traditional “blue-blood” program, marking its inaugural appearance in the Final Four.
Nadkarni: While the allure of a knockout tournament lies in witnessing underdogs rise and potentially reach the Final Four, it’s equally compelling to see the sport’s elite talents competing for the national championship. Personally, I lean towards favoring top-seeded teams in these crucial matchups. Ultimately, in high-stakes scenarios, the most captivating contests involve the sport’s best athletes battling under pressure.
Players to Watch in the Final Four
Nadkarni: If there’s room for a Cinderella narrative in a Women’s Final Four populated by dominant teams, Paige Bueckers embodies it. As the seasoned veteran on a relatively youthful Connecticut Huskies team, her quest for a championship ring is compelling.
Bueckers’ collegiate journey has been marked by adversity, with two seasons significantly impacted or entirely lost to injury. In her senior season with the Huskies, she’s proven to be both a prolific and efficient scorer, while also fulfilling the crucial role of playmaker for her team.
Bueckers and UConn have consistently reached the Final Four in recent years, including four out of the last five seasons. However, the program has not clinched a national championship since 2016. Bueckers leading the Huskies back to championship glory would be a remarkably satisfying storyline.
Greif: Keep an eye on UCLA’s Lauren Betts. The 6-foot-7 center has been recognized as the national defensive player of the year. Her defensive prowess extends beyond post players, effectively stifling wing players as well, averaging 3.5 blocks throughout the NCAA tournament. Furthermore, she’s contributing significantly on offense, averaging 23 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game in the tournament. The strategic approaches taken by UCLA to maximize Betts’ impact, and by Connecticut to leverage Bueckers’ abilities, will be essential viewing.
Team Facing the Biggest Challenge
Greif: Texas presents a significant challenge. The Longhorns average 10 three-point attempts per game, ranking among the lowest in the nation this season. While this strategy has been effective thus far, employing it against a formidable opponent like South Carolina and their staunch defense could be problematic.
Much of the offensive burden will rest on the shoulders of Madison Booker, SEC Player of the Year and Texas wing. South Carolina holds a 2-1 record against Texas this season, having won their two encounters by an average margin of 18 points.
Nadkarni: In truth, labeling any of these Final Four teams as being in “trouble” feels inaccurate, given their demonstrated strengths. This question feels somewhat like a setup! I’m wary of providing bulletin board material for any team. However, if pressed to choose, I would suggest South Carolina.
The Gamecocks’ recent victories have been narrower, winning their last two contests by a combined total of only eight points, suggesting closer games. Does it seem somewhat absurd to express concern about a Dawn Staley-coached team that has claimed two of the last three national championships? Perhaps! It’s possible Texas, who lost to South Carolina by 19 points in their most recent matchup at the SEC Championship, might have unforeseen strategies prepared.
Final Four and Championship Game Predictions
Nadkarni: My predictions for the Final Four are Connecticut defeating UCLA 75-70 and South Carolina overcoming Texas 60-58.
In the national championship game, I foresee Connecticut prevailing over South Carolina 71-67.
Bueckers is poised to achieve a storybook conclusion, redeeming UConn’s defeat in the 2022 national championship and potentially securing the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA draft as a reigning champion.
Greif: For the Final Four, I predict South Carolina to defeat Texas 71-56, and Connecticut to beat UCLA 75-70.
I anticipate Connecticut winning the national championship 67-60 against South Carolina.
I’m hesitant to bet against Connecticut and Bueckers, who provide the storied Huskies program with their strongest opportunity to capture their first national title since 2016. The Huskies decisively won their mid-February regular season game in a 29-point blowout.