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WASHINGTON, D.C. — In an era where modern military operations are increasingly dependent on space-based networks, Russia and China are intensifying their initiatives to challenge the preeminence of commercial satellite constellations, notably SpaceX’s Starlink. The Secure World Foundation (SWF), a non-partisan policy research organization, recently outlined these advancements in their newest annual report, which evaluates global counterspace capabilities.
The report, entitled “Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment,” and published on April 3, indicates that Starlink has emerged as a key target for adversarial nations, particularly after its demonstrated strategic value in Ukraine following the Russian incursion in 2022.
Russia’s ‘Starlink Killer’ Initiative
Ukrainian military units began experiencing disruptions to Starlink services in May 2024. Ukrainian officials attribute these outages to Russia “testing various methods” utilizing its electronic warfare systems, the report specifies.
SWF analysts emphasize two primary Russian systems: Tobol and Kalinka. Initially conceived to safeguard Russian satellites from jamming, the Tobol system has been adapted to disrupt satellite communications and navigation networks like GPS. Approximately seven Tobol complexes are positioned across Russian territory. Leaked U.S. military documents suggest Russia has deployed at least three of these installations with the express purpose of targeting Starlink signals over Eastern Ukraine.
Of greater concern to the U.S. and its allies is Russia’s more advanced Kalinka system, often referred to as the “Starlink Killer.” This electronic warfare platform is reportedly capable of detecting and disrupting signals transmitted to and from Starlink satellites, with the specific objective of hindering Ukrainian drones and military communications.
The report highlights that Kalinka’s alleged aptitude to identify terminals linked to Starshield, the enhanced security military version of Starlink, is particularly alarming.
China’s Strategic Counterspace Development
While Russia’s electronic warfare operations have been tested in live combat in Ukraine, China is making substantial investments in analogous capabilities, focusing on potential future conflicts.
The report references a 2022 study sponsored by China’s People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force, which explicitly advises developing counterspace capabilities to target commercial satellite constellations like Starlink in the event of armed conflict with the United States.
“Chinese military doctrine places significant importance on seizing the initiative at the commencement of hostilities,” the report asserts. “This would likely involve actions against satellite networks to impede adversaries’ access to communications and navigation.”
In its analysis of cyber attacks on satellite systems, the SWF report notes that Starlink’s constellation, comprising thousands of small satellites in low Earth orbit, has demonstrated considerable resilience against cyber intrusions.
The Secure World Foundation’s report also tracks counterspace developments in other nations including the United States, India, Australia, France, Iran, Israel, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. While kinetic anti-satellite weapons remain under investigation and testing, non-kinetic approaches such as electronic warfare and cyber operations are already being actively employed.
U.S. officials suggest that as dependence on space-based assets increases, the competition to control or deny access to space will only escalate, with commercial operators increasingly caught in the midst of geopolitical tensions.