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China’s Renewable Energy Grid Faces Weather-Related Challenges
China’s extensive electrical network leads the globe in renewable energy capacity. However, this system is becoming increasingly susceptible to power disruptions due to adverse weather patterns. The imperative to secure a dependable energy supply may compel the Chinese government to augment its reliance on coal-burning power stations.
Growing Renewable Capacity Increases Weather Sensitivity
China’s energy infrastructure is undergoing rapid decarbonization, consistently achieving unprecedented levels of solar and wind power generation almost monthly. The nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions, currently the world’s largest, are anticipated to peak shortly and subsequently decrease. At present, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity constitute approximately half of China’s power generation capabilities and are projected to reach nearly 90% by 2060, aligning with the country’s commitment to “carbon neutrality”.
The Intermittency Challenge: Weather’s Impact on Renewables
This heightened dependence on renewable energy sources simultaneously renders the nation’s power infrastructure more vulnerable to meteorological variations. The variable nature of wind and solar power can be complemented by consistent hydropower derived from large-scale hydroelectric dams concentrated in southern regions of China. Nevertheless, concerns arise regarding the consequences when periods of diminished wind and solar energy coincide with drought conditions.
Modeling Extreme Weather Vulnerability
Jianjian Shen, based at Dalian University of Technology in China, and his research team simulated the responses of the increasingly renewable energy grid to years characterized by “extreme weather”. They assessed the performance of China’s present and proposed future energy mix – incorporating wind, solar, and hydropower – under the most unfavorable weather scenarios recorded historically.
Potential for Significant Power Shortages
Their findings indicated that the future grid will exhibit considerably greater sensitivity to weather fluctuations compared to the current system. In 2060, an exceptionally unfavorable year could diminish the operational power generation capacity by as much as 12% relative to today’s grid, potentially leading to power deficits. Under the most extreme circumstances projected for 2030, their analysis predicted a power shortfall exceeding 400 terawatt-hours, representing almost 4% of the total national energy demand. Li Shuo, from the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington D.C., emphasizes, “That’s not a number that anyone can simply disregard.”
Hydropower Limitations During Droughts
Compounding the general power scarcity, droughts could specifically curtail the availability of hydropower, which is crucial for stabilizing the irregular output of wind and solar generation. This situation could further exacerbate the risk of power shortages. The researchers concluded in their publication, “It is vital to equip the power grid with an appropriate proportion of stable power sources less susceptible to meteorological factors in order to avert widespread, large-scale electricity shortages.”
Mitigation Strategies: Grid Enhancements and Energy Storage
One effective mitigation strategy involves enhancing inter-provincial electricity transmission efficiency to redistribute surplus power more effectively. Expanding the transmission infrastructure to achieve this could eliminate the risk of power deficits in the present grid and reduce the risk by half by 2060, according to the research team. Furthermore, the deployment of tens of millions of kilowatts of novel energy storage solutions, encompassing batteries or other methods, would also buffer against hydropower shortfalls, they determined.
The Scale of Storage Needs for Carbon Neutrality
Li Shuo notes that the quantum of supplementary energy storage China will need to implement to realize carbon neutrality “will be an astronomical number”.
Feasibility of Large-Scale Energy Storage
Lauri Myllyvirta, from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland, suggests that while these infrastructural changes present difficulties, implementing extensive energy storage is achievable, given the massive volume of battery production already occurring in China. He points out that the nation is additionally constructing 190 gigawatts of pumped hydro storage, which offers longer-duration energy storage by utilizing surplus electricity to pump water to higher elevations behind dams and subsequently releasing it to generate power when demand increases.
Coal’s Persistent Role Amidst Power Shortages
However, historically, power shortages have predominantly motivated the Chinese government to construct additional coal-fueled power stations. For instance, severe blackouts in 2021 and 2022, triggered by hydropower droughts and heatwaves that amplified power consumption, generated political pressure for the continued expansion of coal energy. In 2023, record lows in hydropower generation correlated with record highs in emissions.
Future of Coal in China’s Energy Mix
China’s President Xi Jinping has indicated that coal power generation would peak this year; nevertheless, strong political backing for this energy source complicates this prospect. Li Shuo cautions, “If China experiences another series of such events, further expansion of coal-fired power plants should not be the solution.” He concludes, “It’s simply challenging to phase out coal; China has a deep-seated reliance on coal.”