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Experts Optimistic About AI’s Long-Term Impact, Public Remains Wary, Survey Finds
Artificial intelligence (AI) specialists express considerable confidence in the beneficial influence of AI over the next two decades, a recent Pew Research Center survey reveals. However, a significantly smaller proportion of the general public in the United States shares this optimistic outlook. This divergence in perspective highlights a critical gap between those developing and deploying AI technologies and broader societal perceptions.
The rapid advancement of generative AI tools, exemplified by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, has propelled artificial intelligence into widespread public discourse. According to Pew, public apprehension surrounding AI has increased since a similar study conducted in 2021.
Divergent Views on AI’s Future Impact
The survey data indicates a stark contrast in viewpoints. Among AI experts, 56% anticipate a positive impact from artificial intelligence on the US within the coming 20 years. Conversely, only 17% of US adults surveyed hold this view, with a substantial 35% predicting a negative impact. Notably, a smaller fraction of experts, 15%, also foresee a negative trajectory.
Public Skepticism Rooted in Everyday Concerns
A primary driver of this divergence is the lower level of optimism among everyday Americans regarding AI’s influence on crucial aspects of their daily lives. Areas such as employment, healthcare, and education are viewed with less optimism by the general public compared to AI specialists. For instance, while 73% of experts believe AI will enhance workplace productivity, only 23% of surveyed US adults concur.
While generative AI models have gained significant attention recently, it’s important to note that not all artificial intelligence operates in the same way. The popularity of ChatGPT and similar large language models like Google Gemini has ignited intense competition among tech companies. This has resulted in a perceived proliferation of AI features integrated into common applications and devices, eliciting mixed reactions from consumers. A FASTNET poll from 2024 showed that many smartphone users are not enthusiastic about AI integrations like Apple Intelligence.
Survey Methodology
The findings are drawn from two surveys featured in the latest Pew report. The survey of US adults was conducted in August 2024 as part of Pew’s American Trends Panel, encompassing over 5,000 randomly selected participants. The perspectives of AI experts were gathered from a panel of 1,013 US-based individuals involved in AI-related work or research, who had presented at or published in 21 AI conferences during 2023 and 2024.
The Pew report emphasizes, “These surveys highlight both significant disagreements and areas of consensus concerning AI. AI experts are considerably more optimistic than the public about AI’s potential benefits, particularly in the realm of employment. However, both groups express a desire for greater individual control over AI and share concerns regarding insufficient governmental oversight.”
AI’s Impact on Employment and the Workplace
Job Displacement Concerns
Neither AI experts nor the general public expressed strong optimism about AI leading to net job growth in the US over the next 20 years. Among experts, 19% anticipate an increase in jobs, while 39% foresee a decrease. This negative outlook is even more pronounced among the general public, with 64% predicting job losses and only 5% expecting job creation.
Vulnerable Professions
When considering specific job categories at risk, both groups identified cashiers and journalists as potentially vulnerable to automation. Interestingly, neither group anticipated substantial job losses for mental health therapists, despite advancements in AI-driven therapy chatbots.
A significant majority of AI experts, 61%, predicted job displacement for truck drivers, compared to 33% of the general public. The concept of driverless trucks has been a long-standing aspiration within the autonomous vehicle industry, predating the widespread recognition of ChatGPT. However, the survey suggests this concept has not yet fully resonated with the broader public. One AI expert, quoted anonymously in the report, stated that truck drivers will likely be “gone in 10, 20 years probably.”
Evolving Job Roles
Even in professions that persist in the age of AI, the nature of human work may undergo transformation. Nickle LaMoreaux, chief human resources officer at IBM, recently indicated that companies will increasingly prioritize critical thinking and uniquely human skills in their employees.
Current AI Adoption in Workplaces
Despite considerable attention, AI tools have not yet made a significant impact in many workplaces. A separate Pew survey from February indicated that only one-sixth of US workers are currently utilizing AI in their jobs, with a majority reporting infrequent or no use of chatbots.
Public Sentiment: Concern Outweighs Excitement Regarding AI
Mixed Public Reactions to AI Growth
The two surveyed groups presented virtually opposing perspectives regarding whether individuals are predominantly concerned or enthusiastic about the increasing prevalence of AI. Among the general public, 51% expressed greater concern, while 47% of AI experts indicated greater excitement.
Reasons for Optimism
Experts cited factors such as the automation of routine tasks and potential advancements in medical treatments as reasons for optimism. One expert stated being “most excited about the positive impact that it could have in the health industry.”
Sources of Concern
However, significant reservations persist. Concerns about inaccurate information, impersonation (deepfakes), and the misuse of personal data were shared by both the public and experts. Job displacement was a notably greater concern for the general public than for the expert group.