Importance Score: 72 / 100 🔴
Democratic Victory in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Signals Persistent Political Engagement
In a significant outcome, Susan Crawford, aligned with Democrats, secured a decisive triumph in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, underscoring the enduring political fervor of the “resistance” even in the current political climate. This victory highlights a clear advantage over Republicans in lower-profile contests.
Landslide Victory Driven by Intensity Gap
Crawford’s substantial 10-point margin of victory against Republican-supported Brad Schimel represents a landslide when juxtaposed with recent presidential races in Wisconsin. The past three presidential elections in the state were all determined by razor-thin margins of less than one percentage point. The driving force behind Crawford’s win was the stark contrast in engagement levels between the two major parties.
High Turnout, Disproportionate Democratic Enthusiasm
Voter turnout for Tuesday’s judicial election surpassed 2.3 million, a considerable figure for a spring, off-year election. However, this is still below the over 3.4 million votes cast in Wisconsin’s 2024 presidential election. The decline in turnout was notably more pronounced among voters aligned with the Republican party.
The “Resistance” and Its Demographics
The sustained enthusiasm within the “resistance” movement originates from a specific segment of the Democratic base. This group is characterized by voters who are highly educated, possess higher incomes, and hold intensely anti-Trump viewpoints. While predominantly white, this demographic is not exclusively so and is heavily concentrated in metropolitan areas and college towns. They are deeply engaged with politically charged, progressive media outlets and consistently provide significant online fundraising for Democratic candidates. Critically, they demonstrate exceptional motivation to participate in elections at all levels, perceiving each contest as an opportunity to challenge the Republican party.
Dane County: Epicenter of Democratic Strength
Dane County, Wisconsin, epitomizes these demographic trends more than almost any other area in the United States. Home to the state capital and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Dane County is nearly 80% white and boasts the highest levels of education within the state. Specifically, 56% of the white adult population holds at least a bachelor’s degree, with over 20% of all adults possessing an advanced degree. Furthermore, the county is considerably wealthier than much of Wisconsin. These factors have solidified Dane County as a crucial Democratic stronghold.
Crawford’s Dominance in Dane County
In the recent election, Crawford carried Dane County by an overwhelming 64 points. Voter turnout in the county reached 78% of the levels seen in November’s general election. Remarkably, the electorate that turned out was even more favorably disposed towards Democrats compared to November. Crawford’s vote share in Dane County exceeded that of former Vice President Kamala Harris by eight percentage points, indicating a further strengthening of Democratic dominance in Wisconsin’s most reliably blue area.
Republican Base Shows Signs of Slack
In stark contrast, the Republican base that propelled Trump to victory in Wisconsin presents a demographically opposite profile. Trump garnered substantial support from white voters without college degrees, primarily located in exurban, small-town, and rural regions of Wisconsin. The 2024 election also saw Trump expand his base to include new support from nonwhite voters, many of whom were younger, male, and first-time voters, concentrated in and around Milwaukee.
Turnout Decline in Key Republican Areas
However, Tuesday’s election revealed a noticeable decline in engagement within this Republican coalition. Two key regions illustrate this trend.
Driftless Area: Republican Stronghold Weakens
First, the “Driftless Area,” a predominantly rural and small-town region encompassing counties along the Mississippi River and inland, which was crucial to Trump’s success in 2016 and again in 2024, experienced a significant drop-off. While Trump carried the area by double digits in prior elections, turnout in the Driftless Area on Tuesday was only 67% of November levels, a greater decline than observed in Dane County. Notably, Crawford actually won the Driftless Area by six points, underscoring the disproportionate decrease in Republican turnout.
Milwaukee Area: Nonwhite Voter Turnout Plummets
Secondly, in the Milwaukee area, home to a significant portion of the state’s nonwhite population, a similar pattern emerged. While Trump narrowed the Democratic margin in majority Hispanic precincts in Milwaukee to 44 points last year, a notable improvement for a Republican, turnout in these same precincts on Tuesday plummeted to just 49% of November levels. Consequently, the Democratic margin widened again to 66 points.
Political Landscape Inversion
This dynamic represents a reversal from the recent past, when the Republican coalition was more suburban-centric and perceived as more politically engaged. Previously, Democrats faced the challenge of motivating less frequent voters in off-year elections. Now, this challenge appears to have shifted to the Republican side, particularly in elections without Trump on the ballot.
Future of Republican Coalition
President Trump has successfully assembled a unique voter coalition, which, when fully mobilized, is capable of winning the popular vote in national elections. The critical question for Republicans over the next two years is whether they can maintain and rely on this coalition’s engagement in elections where Trump’s name is not on the ballot.