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Russia Reportedly Suspends Mass Drone Attacks on Ukraine After Trump’s Tariff Warning
In a notable development, Russia seemingly refrained from launching a mass drone strike targeting civilian targets in Ukraine overnight, marking a departure from recent patterns. This pause follows statements from Donald Trump expressing displeasure with the Russian President and suggesting potential secondary tariffs. This absence of widespread overnight drone attacks is the first such instance in months, specifically since October, according to Ukrainian reports.
Absence of Mass Drone Strikes Noted by Ukrainian Officials
“We will continue to monitor the situation; as of now, it does not signify a definitive change,” stated Andrii Kovalenko, a National Security and Defense Council official, via his Telegram channel. While large-scale drone attacks were absent, Ukraine did report intercepting two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles launched by Russia, aimed at southeastern Ukraine.
Limited Drone Activity and Missile Strikes Reported
Officials in Dnipropropetrovsk Oblast reported isolated drone attacks within the region overnight, noting that the damage inflicted was limited. The apparent cessation of widespread drone activity is noteworthy considering the extensive damage these attacks have inflicted on civilian areas and port infrastructure throughout the protracted conflict.
Trump’s Criticism of Putin and Tariff Threats Emerge Amidst Lull
The unusual absence of mass drone strikes coincides with recent strong statements from Trump. Days prior, Trump threatened Russia with significant tariffs targeting countries that purchase Russian oil. In a televised interview on Sunday, Trump conveyed his strong dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin‘s critique of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s leadership.
Trump’s Stance on Ukraine and Potential Sanctions
Trump characterized Putin‘s remarks as “not moving in a favorable direction,” referencing the Russian President’s proposition for Ukraine to be placed under temporary UN supervision until a “competent” government is established. Trump assessed that this proposal would preclude any agreement “for an extended duration.” He further asserted, “If Russia and I are unable to reach an accord on ceasing the bloodshed in Ukraine, and should I determine Russia to be at fault… I will impose secondary tariffs on oil, specifically on all oil originating from Russia.”
Trump elaborated, “Effectively, any entity purchasing oil from Russia will be barred from conducting business in the United States. A 25% tariff will be levied on all oil, potentially escalating to a 25- to 50-point tariff.”
Ukraine Demonstrates Restraint Amidst Diplomatic Tensions
Ukraine also exhibited measured responses in its actions against Russia, with reports indicating only three drones were downed over the Bryansk region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has advocated for a cautious approach in dealings with Trump, suggesting that the recently declared maritime ceasefire should serve as a litmus test of good faith.
Zelenskyy Seeks Evidence of Russian Compliance
“Should the Russians violate this agreement, I will have a direct question for President Trump,” Zelenskyy stated. “Should violations occur, we will present the evidence – and accordingly, request sanctions, weapons, and further assistance.”
Continuing this line of thought on Tuesday, Zelenskyy posted on X, “Russia‘s conduct in the coming days will be highly revealing— if not definitively so.” Despite the diplomatic overtures, Zelenskyy noted late on Sunday that there has been no reduction in Russia‘s attacks, as the invasion, ongoing since February 2022, persists relentlessly.
Continued Russian Aggression Undermines Diplomatic Efforts
He asserted that these ongoing attacks illustrate Russia‘s lack of genuine interest in reaching a peaceful resolution. “The scope and intensity of Russian strikes, occurring not sporadically, but consistently day and night, demonstrate Putin‘s disregard for diplomacy,” Zelenskyy emphasized in his daily address.
“Almost daily, in response to proposals for de-escalation, we face Russian drones, aerial bombs, artillery barrages, and ballistic missile attacks,” he added.
Zelenskyy Calls for Increased International Pressure
Zelenskyy urged intensified international pressure on Moscow to compel Russia to engage in negotiations, including the implementation of further sanctions. He had previously accused Putin of “openly mocking” US efforts to broker a ceasefire, citing “constant new drone strikes, and relentless brutal shelling.”
“Only through sustained pressure can this be halted, and Russia compelled towards peace,” Zelenskyy concluded.
ISW Analysis of Russian Drone and Missile Usage
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported earlier this month that Russia appeared to be escalating its deployment of Shahed drones and missiles, potentially aimed at overwhelming Ukraine‘s air defense capabilities. The ISW’s assessment suggested that Russia possesses ample supplies of UAV components to sustain these intensified attacks.
Russian Manufacturing Sector Shows Contraction
However, contrary to this military focus, a recent business survey indicated that Russia‘s manufacturing sector experienced its most significant contraction in nearly three years during March. This downturn was driven by decreased output and new orders, reflecting weakened domestic and international demand.
Manufacturing PMI Indicates Economic Strain
The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 48.2 in March, down from 50.2 in February. This drop below the 50 threshold signifies a contraction in the sector, marking the first deterioration since September and the most pronounced since April 2022. The April 2022 figure coincided with the period when international sanctions, imposed following Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine two months prior, were beginning to exert significant economic impact.
Output and New Orders Decline
Manufacturing output levels in March reached their lowest point since July 2022. New orders also decreased for the first time since October, falling at the fastest rate in nearly three years. This decline was attributed to a weakening of both domestic and export demand.
Military Spending Buoys Certain Sectors Amidst Economic Challenges
Russia‘s substantial expenditure on military hardware and weaponry, aimed at sustaining its ongoing war in Ukraine, has provided a boost to certain segments of the manufacturing sector. Without this military spending, the sector might have experienced more severe consequences due to international repercussions and reduced trade with some nations.
Supply Chain Disruptions Impact Manufacturing
“Logistics challenges and delays in rail transportation were cited as factors contributing to longer lead times for inputs,” S&P Global reported. “However, the extent of supplier quality deterioration was the least pronounced since last May.”