Mapping the Myanmar earthquake

The epicenter of the seismic event has been identified. A shakemap illustrates the intensity of the ground shaking, revealing that the powerful magnitude of the earthquake was sufficient to be perceived across surrounding nations.

Eyewitness reports indicate that at least three individuals perished in Taungoo when a mosque partially collapsed. Local news outlets are reporting further casualties, with at least two deaths and twenty injuries following the collapse of a hotel in Aung Ban.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program has issued projections indicating potentially severe consequences, estimating that fatalities could range from 10,000 to 100,000. The economic repercussions are also projected to be substantial, potentially reaching as high as 70% of Myanmar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Roger Musson, a research fellow at the British Geological Survey, explained to Reuters that the shallow depth of the earthquake exacerbated the level of damage. The USGS reported the quake’s hypocenter at a mere 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) below the surface.

“Due to its shallow origin, the shockwaves experienced minimal dissipation as they traveled from the earthquake’s source to the surface. Consequently, buildings were subjected to the full force of the shaking,” Musson elaborated.

He further cautioned against solely focusing on epicenters, clarifying that seismic waves radiate outward from the entire fault line, not just the epicenter point.

Myanmar is located on the boundary of two tectonic plates, placing it within a region of considerable seismic activity. While the Sagaing region is prone to earthquakes, major destructive events have been relatively infrequent.

Professor Joanna Faure Walker, an earthquake expert at University College London, noted, “The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs roughly north-south, bisecting the country.”

She further explained that the horizontal movement of these plates at varying speeds results in “strike-slip” earthquakes. Although typically less powerful than those in “subduction zones” such as Sumatra, these quakes can still attain magnitudes between 7 and 8.

Since the 2021 coup that ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, the military junta has struggled to govern effectively, leading to a decline in the economy and essential services like healthcare.

An armed opposition, composed of established ethnic armed groups and newly formed resistance factions, has gained control of significant territories, forcing the junta from border regions and increasingly confining it to the central lowlands.

The ongoing conflict has displaced over three million people within Myanmar, causing widespread food shortages and leaving more than a third of the population in need of humanitarian aid, according to United Nations reports.

In recent years, Myanmar has also experienced other natural disasters, including Typhoon Yagi last year and Cyclone Mocha in 2023. The internationally isolated junta has faced challenges in providing adequate response and relief efforts.

Nyi Nyi Kyaw, a Myanmar academic at the University of Bristol, commented that the earthquake has struck “at a moment when Myanmar is in its most vulnerable state… in decades”.

He stated that civil society organizations largely dispersed after the coup, and the remaining community-based groups lack the capacity to effectively manage disaster relief operations.

“Essentially, Myanmar is completely unprepared to handle the shock of this disaster and its subsequent aftermath,” he concluded.