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Renewed interest in Greenland’s strategic value has emerged as Donald Trump resumed his presidency. Trump has maintained that the United States should exert control over Greenland, presently an autonomous region of Denmark, even raising the prospect of forceful seizure should diplomatic approaches fail.
A recent congressional hearing highlighted Greenland’s strategic importance and natural resources, including critical minerals, fossil fuels, and hydropower. However, lawmakers and expert witnesses notably omitted discussion of the inherent hazards, intensified by human-caused climate change, that those ambitious to possess and exploit the island will inevitably confront.
Such oversight is imprudent, as the Arctic climate is transforming at an unprecedented pace compared to the rest of the planet. This swift warming trend significantly elevates the already considerable economic and personal dangers for those inhabiting, working within, and extracting resources from Greenland, along with wider global ramifications.
Greenland: A Land of Extremes
Greenland presents a stark contrast to most inhabited regions. Its climate is intensely frigid, and for a significant portion of the year, coastal sea ice renders it inaccessible.
A massive ice sheet, reaching up to two miles in thickness, blankets over 80% of the island. The population, numbering approximately 56,000 individuals, is concentrated along the island’s precipitous, rocky coastline.
Research for the book “When the Ice is Gone” revealed how Greenland’s severe climate and expansive wilderness thwarted historical colonial endeavors. During World War II, numerous U.S. military aviators, disoriented by dense fog and fuel depletion, crashed onto the ice sheet. An iceberg originating from Greenland was responsible for the sinking of the Titanic in 1912. Forty-six years later, another iceberg sank a Danish vessel specifically engineered for ice navigation, resulting in 95 fatalities.
Currently amplified by climate change, natural hazards render resource extraction and military operations in Greenland precarious, costly, and potentially lethal.
Mobile Mountainous Terrain
Greenland’s coastal terrain is susceptible to rockslides, posing a significant hazard in populated coastal areas where rock formations are exposed. These rocks often contain critical minerals, including gold and rare metals vital for technological applications, such as circuit boards and electric vehicle batteries.
The instability of these slopes results from the erosive action of a larger ice sheet in carving deep fjords. With the ice receding, the once-buttressed, near-vertical valley walls are now prone to collapse.
In 2017, a mountainside in northwestern Greenland experienced a dramatic 3,000-foot fall into a deep fjord. The resulting tsunami surged over the adjacent villages of Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit. Iceberg-laden waters devastated homes, forcing residents and sled dogs to flee for safety. The catastrophic event claimed four lives and left both villages in ruins.
Steep fjord walls across Greenland exhibit extensive evidence of prior rockslides, indicating that one colossal slide within the last 10,000 years discharged enough rock to fill 3.2 million Olympic-sized swimming pools. In 2023, another rockslide generated a tsunami that resonated within a Greenland fjord for nine days.
Greenland lacks a paved road network, making maritime transport the only viable option for moving substantial equipment, minerals, and fossil fuels. Docks, mines, and infrastructure situated close to sea level remain vulnerable to tsunamis triggered by rockslides.
Melting Ice: A Costly and Deadly Consequence
Human-induced global warming, fueled by fossil fuel combustion, accelerates the melting of Greenland’s ice. This ice melt imperils the island’s infrastructure and the traditional lifestyles of indigenous communities, who have adapted transportation and sustenance practices to snow and ice for millennia. Recent record floods, exacerbated by ice sheet melt due to warming temperatures, have destroyed bridges that had stood for half a century.
As the climate warms, permafrost – frozen rock and soil underlying the island – thaws, destabilizing landscapes, weakening steep inclines, and damaging vital infrastructure.
Permafrost thaw already presents a threat to the U.S. military installation in Greenland. As ice melts and the ground subsides beneath runways, fissures and craters develop, posing risks to aircraft. Buildings are tilting as foundations sink into softening soil, including essential radar systems that have been monitoring airspace for missiles and bombers since the 1950s.
Greenland’s icebergs pose a threat to offshore oil platforms. Accelerated glacier flow due to climate warming leads to increased iceberg calving into the ocean. While more pronounced near Greenland, some icebergs drift towards Canada, endangering oil rigs. Vessels are deployed to intercept and tow away hazardous icebergs.
Concerned about environmental protection, Greenland’s government prohibited fossil fuel drilling in 2021. Nevertheless, Trump and his allies persist in advocating for renewed offshore exploration, despite exorbitant costs, underwhelming initial drilling results, and the persistent iceberg hazard.
As Greenland’s ice diminishes and fresh water flows into the ocean, sea levels are altered in counterintuitive ways. Further from the island, sea level is rising by approximately one inch every six years. Conversely, in proximity to the ice sheet, landmass is rising. Relieved of the immense weight of ice, the bedrock beneath Greenland is rebounding at a rate exceeding six feet per century. Consequently, numerous Greenlandic harbors may soon become too shallow for maritime traffic.
Greenland’s Complex History and Future Prospects
Historical evidence clearly demonstrates repeated failures of military and colonial ventures in Greenland due to inadequate consideration of the island’s harsh climate and dynamic ice sheet.
Climate shifts contributed to the Norse settlers’ departure from Greenland 700 years ago. Explorers attempting to traverse the ice sheet perished due to extreme cold. American bases constructed within the ice sheet, such as Camp Century, were rapidly crushed by deforming snowpack.
Historically, American involvement in Greenland prioritized short-term gains, often neglecting long-term implications. Abandoned World War II-era U.S. military installations, scattered across the island and requiring remediation, exemplify this. The forced relocation of Greenlandic Inuit communities during the Cold War constitutes another instance. It is argued that Trump’s current demands for American control to exploit resources reflect a similar shortsighted perspective.
However, in terms of global habitability, it has been posited that Greenland’s paramount strategic and economic contribution lies not in its location or resources, but in its ice. The white expanse of snow and ice reflects solar radiation, helping to regulate global temperatures. Furthermore, the ice sheet, situated on land, prevents substantial ocean level rise. Complete melting of Greenland’s ice sheet would result in an estimated 23-foot surge in global sea levels.
Climate-driven sea level rise is already inundating coastal regions globally, encompassing major economic centers. Continued sea level rise is projected to cause trillions of dollars in damages. Without preservation of Greenland’s ice, coastal flooding could instigate the largest human migration in history, potentially disrupting global economic and strategic stability.
These examples underscore that neglecting the inherent risks of natural hazards and climate change in Greenland invites disaster on both local and global scales.
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