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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: Experts Predict Another Potentially Destructive Year
Meteorologists are issuing warnings of another robust Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, raising concerns that it could unleash devastation comparable to or exceeding the storms of 2024. Initial forecasts indicate a heightened risk of significant storm activity, potentially impacting the US coastline.
AccuWeather’s 2025 Hurricane Season Prediction
AccuWeather has released its preliminary forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting the possibility of up to six major hurricanes making direct landfall in the United States this summer. This number mirrors the intense storm activity experienced in 2024, which resulted in approximately $500 billion in damages, primarily due to the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Echoes of 2024: A “Supercharged” Season Anticipated
“Following a historic 2024 season, which AccuWeather accurately predicted to be ‘supercharged’ and ‘blockbuster,’ forecasts suggest an active Atlantic hurricane season is again anticipated for 2025,” meteorologists stated. This year’s projections indicate the potential for as many as 18 named storms, with up to 10 strengthening into hurricanes, and five of those becoming major hurricanes requiring close monitoring as they traverse the Atlantic.
Above-Average Storm Activity Expected
The AccuWeather team currently assesses it as highly improbable that the upcoming hurricane season will be weaker than average. Under worst-case scenarios, storms could begin forming as early as May, and the season’s final hurricanes in October and November could still possess significant intensity.
El Niño Absence Fuels Ominous Forecast
This concerning forecast is largely attributed to meteorologists anticipating the absence of El Niño during this hurricane season. El Niño, a weather phenomenon lasting eight to twelve months, brings unusually warm sea-surface temperatures to the eastern Pacific, but conversely, it tends to weaken storm systems in the Atlantic.
ENSO and La Niña’s Influence
With El Niño unlikely to be a factor, meteorologists project that this year’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to remain neutral or transition to La Niña later in 2025. ENSO represents short-term climate fluctuations determined by the warming or cooling of Pacific Ocean waters along the equator. Current forecasts indicate these waters will remain relatively normal throughout the hurricane season, with a possibility of colder temperatures developing in late summer or fall – indicative of the La Niña phenomenon.
La Niña and Increased Hurricane Threat
In either scenario (neutral or La Niña), AccuWeather experts suggest a heightened likelihood of a more intense hurricane season for the Atlantic. This translates to an increased threat of more storms impacting the US East Coast. “While La Niña typically leads to a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean due to reduced vertical wind shear, the neutral phase of ENSO can also contribute to an active season to a lesser extent,” AccuWeather meteorologists explained in their report.
Bermuda-Azores High: A Key Factor in Storm Paths
Regarding the number of hurricanes potentially making direct US landfall, forecasters are examining predictions for this summer’s Bermuda-Azores High. This subtropical high-pressure system shifts westward during summer and fall, playing a crucial role in steering tropical storms and hurricanes from waters near Africa towards the Caribbean and the US.
Impact of High-Pressure System Strength
The behavior of the Bermuda-Azores High throughout the hurricane season will determine the number of storms veering towards America’s East Coast. A strong Bermuda-Azores High is expected to direct more storms towards Florida and up the coastline. Conversely, a weaker system may cause more storms to curve away and dissipate over the Atlantic.
US Landfall Predictions: 2025 vs. 2024
Current forecasts estimate three to six major storms directly striking the US. Three would represent an average hurricane season, while six would mirror the severity experienced last year. “Similar to last year, the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas face a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season. Atlantic Canada, as well as the northeastern Caribbean, are also at increased risk,” AccuWeather added.
Lessons from the 2024 Hurricane Season
In 2024, six storms made direct US landfall, including Hurricanes Helene, Milton, Beryl, Debby, Francine, and one unnamed storm. Hurricane Helene alone is estimated to have caused up to $250 billion in damages, particularly impacting North Carolina.
Economic Toll of Recent Weather Disasters
AccuWeather’s Jonathan Porter noted the ongoing struggles of many American families and small businesses to recover from recent weather disasters. “We estimate that hurricanes, wildfires, winter storms, and extreme temperatures over the past 13 months have resulted in a combined total damage and economic loss estimated at $693 billion to $799 billion,” the senior vice president stated.
Warmer Atlantic Waters Signal Early Storm Activity
While the official hurricane season commencement is June 1st, meteorologists highlight that sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin are currently significantly warmer than normal, including waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of America. AccuWeather anticipates a high probability of these conditions persisting into the summer, potentially enabling storms to intensify more rapidly, especially upon reaching the Caribbean.
Preparing for the 2025 Hurricane Season
The convergence of warmer Atlantic waters and potential La Niña conditions in the Pacific raises the possibility of the 2025 hurricane season commencing as early as May. Meteorologists are strongly advising individuals in potential Atlantic hurricane paths to proactively develop preparedness plans. This includes establishing evacuation strategies and ensuring adequate supplies and emergency equipment are readily available should severe weather strike.