Why earthquake predictions are usually wrong

Brent Dmitruk identifies himself as an earthquake forecaster.

In October, he informed his numerous social media followers of an impending earthquake set to strike the westernmost region of California, south of Eureka.

Subsequently, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in northern California two months later, prompting tsunami warnings for millions and enhancing Mr. Dmitruk’s online presence as individuals sought his future forecasts.

“For those who disregard my work, how can this be mere coincidence? Accurately determining earthquake locations requires considerable expertise,” he asserted on New Year’s Eve.

However, seismology experts contend that earthquake prediction remains impossible.

This very unpredictability fuels unease, especially for millions residing along North America’s west coast who fear a catastrophic earthquake could strike without warning, devastating landscapes and lives.

Lucy Jones, a veteran seismologist with the USGS and author of “The Big Ones,” has dedicated her career to studying earthquake probability and enhancing resilience against major seismic events.

Throughout her extensive research, Ms. Jones notes a recurring desire for precise predictions of significant earthquakes and claims of deciphering earthquake patterns.

“The human inclination to find patterns in the face of danger is profound; it’s a typical response to fear,” she explained. “However, this does not provide predictive capability.”

Given the приблизительно 100,000 earthquakes detected globally each year by the USGS, public desire for advance warning is understandable.

The Eureka area, approximately 270 miles north of San Francisco and the epicenter of December’s earthquake, has experienced over 700 earthquakes in the past year, including more than ten in the preceding week, according to recent data.

This region, where Mr. Dmitruk correctly anticipated seismic activity, is among the most seismically active zones in the U.S. This instability arises from the Mendocino Triple Junction, where three tectonic plates converge.

Earthquakes originate from plate movements – whether colliding, diverging, or sliding – that generate stress. The sudden release of this stress results in seismic events.

Ms. Jones stated that anticipating an earthquake in this volatile region is not surprising, although a magnitude 7 event is relatively uncommon.

USGS statistics indicate only 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater since 1900. Five of these, including the recent event highlighted by Mr. Dmitruk, occurred in the same geographical area.

While acknowledging the prediction’s accuracy in this instance, Ms. Jones informed the BBC that accurately forecasting earthquakes, especially major ones, remains improbable.

Earthquake generation involves a complex and “dynamic” interplay of geological factors, she emphasized.

Earthquake magnitude likely develops during the event itself. She illustrated this with an analogy of tearing paper: the tear continues until an obstruction impedes or slows its progress.

Scientists understand the cause of earthquakes – abrupt shifts along fault lines – but the USGS maintains that predicting these events is currently impossible and “not anticipated in the foreseeable future.”

The agency clarifies its capacity to estimate earthquake probability within a region over extended periods, but precise prediction remains elusive.

Geological records reveal that major earthquakes, termed “the big one” locally, occur at intervals. The Cascadia subduction zone is known to rupture every 300 to 500 years, causing massive tsunamis along the Pacific Northwest coast.

Similarly, the San Andreas fault in Southern California poses a risk for another “big one,” with significant earthquakes occurring roughly every 200-300 years. Experts warn that a major earthquake could occur at any time in either region.

Ms. Jones recounted receiving numerous purported earthquake predictions throughout her career, including faxes in the 1990s.

“Given weekly predictions, eventually someone will be correct by chance,” she remarked. “However, such instances often inflate confidence, leading to subsequent inaccurate predictions.”

This pattern appears to be mirrored in Mr. Dmitruk’s case. Despite lacking scientific credentials, he has persistently predicted an exceptionally powerful magnitude 10.3 earthquake impacting southwest Alaska or islands near New Zealand – a quake he claims could disrupt global commerce.

The USGS stipulates that a valid earthquake prediction must specify three criteria: date and time, location, and magnitude.

Mr. Dmitruk’s timeline, however, remains fluid.

Initially, he projected the massive earthquake to coincide with or immediately follow President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Later, his prediction shifted to occurring definitively before 2030.

Despite the absence of this large-scale event, Mr. Dmitruk maintains his conviction that it will materialize.

“I believe it’s not mere chance,” Mr. Dmitruk stated. “It is neither random nor luck.”

Ms. Jones notes that this line of reasoning is typical regarding earthquakes.

“Random distributions can manifest as patterns; we perceive constellations in stars,” she explained.

“Many individuals harbor significant fear of earthquakes, and prediction becomes a coping mechanism to manage this anxiety.”

Despite the unpredictability of earthquakes, experts emphasize that preparedness is crucial.

Annually, on the third Thursday of October, millions of Americans participate in the Great ShakeOut, the world’s largest earthquake drill.

Initiated by the Southern California Earthquake Center, involving Ms. Jones, the drill promotes the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” protocol.

Participants practice dropping to their knees, seeking cover under sturdy furniture like desks, and holding on for one minute.

The drill’s widespread adoption has extended across earthquake-prone regions and internationally.

For those outdoors during a simulated earthquake, guidance includes moving to open spaces away from hazards like trees, buildings, and power lines. In coastal areas, evacuation to higher ground post-shaking is practiced to prepare for potential tsunamis.

“Practicing safety measures in a non-stressful environment, before an actual earthquake, is the optimal time for preparation,” states Brian Terbush, Earthquake and Volcano Program Manager for the Washington State Emergency Management Division.

Beyond drills, West Coast residents utilize ShakeAlert, a phone alert system managed by the USGS.

This system detects pressure waves from earthquakes, providing seconds of advance warning – potentially life-saving time for protective actions. ShakeAlert represents the closest technological advancement to an earthquake warning system currently available.