Global Fertility Rates Decline: Examining the Causes and Implications
Globally, women are, on average, giving birth to fewer children compared to previous generations.
This trend, attributed to improved access to education and contraception, increased female participation in the workforce, and evolving perspectives on family size, is projected to result in population decline in numerous nations by 2100.
Dr. Jennifer Sciubba, author of “8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World,” stated that individuals are opting for smaller families, characterizing this shift as “permanent.”
“Therefore, it is prudent to concentrate on adapting to this new reality rather than attempting to reverse it,” she advised.
Enhanced Access to Sex Education and Contraception
Expanded education and greater access to contraception are significant factors contributing to the decrease in global fertility rates.
Education regarding family planning and contraception has become more widespread, with sex education programs initiated in the US during the 1970s and made mandatory in the UK in the 1990s.
Professor Allan Pacey, an andrologist at the University of Sheffield and former chair of the British Fertility Society, noted, “There is a long-held belief that ‘education is the best contraception,’ and I believe this is pertinent” in explaining the reduction in birth rates.
Elina Pradhan, a senior health specialist at the World Bank, suggests that more educated women may choose to have fewer children due to concerns about potential income reduction when taking leave for childbirth and childcare.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that in the UK, 30% of mothers and 5% of fathers report having to reduce their working hours due to childcare responsibilities.
Ms. Pradhan also proposed that increased exposure to diverse perspectives on family sizes through education and social networks may encourage more critical consideration of desired family size.
Furthermore, she added that women with higher levels of education may possess greater knowledge of prenatal care and child health, and may have improved access to healthcare services.
Professor Jonathan Portes, an economist at King’s College London, stated that enhanced control over fertility empowers women and households to both desire and achieve smaller family sizes.
Increased Female Workforce Participation Impacts Birth Rates
The proportion of women in the workforce has risen significantly over the past half-century – from 52% to 72% – a factor contributing to the halving of the global fertility rate during the same period.
Professor Portes also highlighted that declining birth rates may also be linked to labor and housing market structures, high childcare expenses, and traditional gender roles that can impede women’s ability to balance career aspirations with family life.
He argued that the UK Government has “implemented some of the most anti-family policies in recent memory” by reducing family support services and implementing welfare cuts that “disproportionately affect low-income families with children.”
As more women pursue careers, the age at which they begin families has been pushed later. ONS data reveals that for women born in 1949, the average age for childbirth was 22. However, for women born in 1975, the most common age to have children shifted to 31.
Further indicating the trend of delayed motherhood, half of women born in 1990 remained childless at age 30 – the highest rate recorded for this age group.
Surveys consistently show that career-related reasons are a primary factor in women postponing childbearing, with many desiring to advance further in their professions before starting families.
However, this delay may lead to women having fewer children than initially intended. In the 1990s, approximately 6,700 IVF cycles were conducted annually in the UK. By 2019, this number had drastically increased to over 69,000, suggesting a rise in fertility challenges among women.
Concerns Mount over Male Fertility: Sperm Count Decline
Reproductive health specialists have also expressed concerns that biological factors, such as declining sperm counts and alterations in sexual development, could “threaten human survival.”
Dr. Shanna Swan, an epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, authored a significant 2017 study revealing that global sperm counts have decreased by more than half in the last four decades.
She cautioned that “ubiquitous chemicals,” including phthalates found in personal care products, food packaging, and children’s toys, are a primary cause. These chemicals disrupt hormonal balance, potentially leading to “reproductive harm,” she explained.
Other factors, including tobacco and cannabis use, and rising obesity levels, may also contribute, according to Dr. Swan.
Studies have also indicated a link between air pollution and reduced fertility rates, suggesting that inflammation triggered by pollution can impair egg and sperm production.
However, Professor Pacey, an expert in sperm quality and fertility, stated, “I do not believe that changes in sperm quality are responsible for the decline in birth rates.”
“In fact, I am not convinced by the current evidence suggesting a decline in sperm quality,” he added.
He concluded, “I believe that a more significant factor in falling birth rates is that: (a) individuals are choosing to have fewer children; and (b) they are waiting until later in life to have them.”
Environmental and Societal Concerns Influence Family Size Decisions
Some scientists argue that choosing not to have children is the most impactful individual action to benefit the planet, exceeding the impact of reducing energy consumption, travel, or making carbon-footprint-conscious food choices.
Researchers at Oregon State University estimated that each child adds approximately 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to a woman’s “carbon legacy.” Each metric ton is comparable to driving the Earth’s circumference.
Experts suggest this data discourages environmentally conscious individuals from having children, while others are choosing to forgo parenthood due to anxieties about the world their children will inherit.
Dr. Britt Wray, a human and planetary health fellow at Stanford University, attributed the decline in fertility rates partly to a “fear of a degraded future resulting from climate change.”
She co-authored a Lancet study involving 10,000 young volunteers, which revealed that 40% of young people fear having children due to climate-related concerns.
Professor David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography at Oxford University, told MailOnline that the decision to remain childless is “understandable” given adverse global conditions, such as climate change.