Potential Western Troop Deployment to Ukraine: A “Reassurance Force” Under Discussion
Discussions in London are centered on a potential Western military deployment to Ukraine, described by defense and diplomatic sources as a “reassurance force” rather than a “peacekeeping force.”
Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU): Objectives and Deployment
This proposed deployment, currently termed the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU), aims to solidify any agreed ceasefire and foster long-term stability within the country.
The core objectives of the MFU would include:
- Providing air cover to ensure the safety of Ukrainian airspace.
- Establishing a naval presence in the Black Sea to bolster trade and maritime security.
While the deployment of ground troops, potentially numbering around 20,000 personnel, is under consideration, sources indicate that the force’s size would be insufficient to actively enforce peace.
Strategic Deployment and Geographic Considerations
Instead of peace enforcement, the multinational troops, drawn from a “coalition of the willing,” would likely be positioned to safeguard key Ukrainian assets, including cities, ports, and critical energy infrastructure.
One proposed strategy involves deploying the MFU away from the eastern front lines to mitigate concerns from Russia regarding any offensive intent.
Russian Opposition to International Military Presence
President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have consistently stated their opposition to any ceasefire agreement that includes the deployment of European or other international forces to Ukraine.
Distinction from a Traditional Peacekeeping Force
Sources emphasize that any multinational operation in Ukraine should not be characterized as a “peacekeeping force.”
Traditional peacekeeping operations, typically under the auspices of the United Nations or NATO, operate impartially, require consent from all parties, and only employ force for self-defense. In contrast, the envisioned multinational force would be explicitly aligned with Ukraine, designed to deter future Russian aggression and provide reassurance.
Ceasefire Monitoring and “Tripwire” Force Considerations
Current plans do not include a ground-based multinational force for ceasefire monitoring. This responsibility would rest with Ukrainian frontline troops, supplemented by Western aerial and space-based surveillance capabilities.
Furthermore, sources clarify that the coalition troops would not serve as a “tripwire force.” This concept, involving a smaller force intended to deter aggression without causing major escalation, is not the intended role for this deployment.
Limited Military Impact and Focus on Key Assets
Military analysts suggest that the impact of a 20,000-troop deployment would be limited when compared to the substantial troop numbers on both sides of the conflict. Ukraine possesses nearly a million military personnel, and the Russian army is even larger.
International Support for Ukraine’s Capabilities
Discussions are heavily focused on how an international force can provide Ukraine with essential capabilities it currently lacks, particularly in air defense and maritime security.
Air Support and Black Sea Security
Key discussion points include:
- Identifying nations capable of supplying warplanes to maintain Ukrainian airspace security during a ceasefire.
- Strategies to secure the Black Sea for shipping, addressing both mine clearance and the potential deployment of a naval task force for security operations.
Uncertainty of US Involvement
A significant point of uncertainty remains the extent of United States support, particularly regarding air, satellite, and intelligence coverage for a potential European ground force.
To date, the US has indicated a reluctance to provide a military “backstop” to this operation.
European Strategy and Potential for US Re-engagement
The current European strategy involves proceeding without direct US military commitment, focusing on assembling the strongest possible force and capabilities to ensure Ukraine’s future security. The hope is that a robust European offer might prompt the US to reconsider its position and agree to play a supporting role.
Contingency on Ceasefire Agreement
The feasibility of all planning hinges on the establishment of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Skepticism Regarding Russian Intentions
While the US expresses optimism about ceasefire prospects, significant skepticism persists within Ukraine regarding Russia’s genuine willingness to end hostilities.