Democratic congressman Joe Courtney believes Donald Trump may “back off” from some of his sweeping tariffs, saying several US industries are among those barracking against them to the president.
Courtney, an outspoken advocate of Aukus in the US Congress, called the first round of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports “madness”.
“Many industries in the US are lining up at the White House to make the case that the US is not going to benefit from the tariffs,” he told Guardian Australia, though he did not name which.
It comes as a second round of US tariffs, set to target pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and other sectors, is due to take effect on 2 April.
Courtney said pressure was also growing from financial markets and the US Federal Reserve to rethink the sweeping tariffs, with the latter this week warning about the harm to the US economy.
Earlier in March, fears of an economic downturn drove a stock market sell-off in the US, with $4tn wiped from the S&P 500’s peak in February, prompting the Australian market to shed $45bn.
Courtney acknowledged the “uncertainty” caused by the tariffs and described future decision-making from the president as “very fluid”, but said any serious fallout for the US would no doubt attract “a lot of pressure for the administration to change course”.
“Hopefully it’s going to be a thing in the past, you know, if enough political pressure gets put on the administration to back off,” Courtney said.
The steel and aluminium tariffs came into effect on 12 March without concessions or exemptions, unlike during the first administration when the then Liberal PM, Malcolm Turnbull, secured a carveout in 2018 after nine months of tough negotiations.
It was also despite Trump promising “great consideration” for a carveout for Australia earlier this year, after a 11 February phone call between the US president and the prime minister, Anthony Albanese.
The Albanese government and Australian embassy in Washington have continued to negotiate with the US, which rejected a deal to guarantee supply of critical minerals in return for an exemption on the steel tariffs.
On Thursday, the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, said the US would be his first overseas visit if he became prime minister, as Australia’s “most important military partner” describing “a lot of repair work to do in that relationship”.
Dutton also accused Kevin Rudd, Australia’s ambassador to the US, of being “persona non grata” with the Trump administration, with the opposition leader pointing to historical tweets from the former prime minister calling Trump a “traitor to the west” and “a problem for the world”. Rudd’s office later released a statement saying the comments had been removed and that Rudd was looking forward “to working with President Trump and his team to continue strengthening the US-Australia alliance”.
The opposition has marked Australia’s ability to negotiate as a “test” for the Albanese government, while Peter Dutton claimed a Coalition government would have been able to secure the exemption.
But Courtney, who has continued to speak out against the tariffs in Washington, said he had been “impressed” with the Australian government’s “restrained” response to the saga.
“ [The Australian government is] working very, very hard in terms of making their case, which, in my opinion, is overwhelming compared to other countries,” he said.
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The tariffs have also escalated concerns in Australia over the reliability of the US as an economic and security partner, and raised questions on the future of Aukus.
There’s a push within the administration for Australia to spend more on defence, and growing concern from within that the US isn’t building enough ships to sell Virginia Class submarines to Australia by the early 2030s.
Elbridge Colby, who will soon be confirmed as a top defence aide, said Australia should be looking to spend 3% of GDP on defence, and has previously criticised the Aukus agreement over concerns it would leave the US with limited submarine capacity.
Australia spent about 2% of its GDP on defence in 2023-24, which is expected to reach 2.33% of GDP by 2033-34.
Courtney also said the tariffs are having a small impact on the cost of shipbuilding.
“Just in the last week or so, they [the industry] are seeing a spike in copper prices, and copper is definitely a metal that goes into navy shipbuilding, as well as nickel,” he said.
“Those [spikes] are going to add to industrial base problems in terms of external costs that really are not being driven by market forces and make no sense.”
But Courtney said that wouldn’t have an overall impact on the rate of building submarines, and urged Australia to stay the course with the US in its Aukus partnership.
“Submarine construction tempo is rising with three submarines set for delivery by end of year,” he said.
“Workforce recruitment and retention efforts are strong; and support among Congress, the Trump administration, and the navy remains unwavering.”