Ukraine’s long-awaited counter offensive has begun, western officials and analysts have claimed, following months of speculation and delays. After weeks of “shaping operations” around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which amounted to preparatory probes of the Russian forces on the front line, as well as extensive Russian long-range missile campaigns and the alleged destruction of the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday morning (June 6), analysts believe that Ukraine is now in the first stages of their counter attack.
It is widely expected that the two main objectives of this sixth stage of fighting are to reclaim Donbas, which has been under partial Russian occupation since 2014, and to advance throughs the southern Zaporizhzhia region towards the city of Melitopol, splitting the land bridge between Crimea and Putin’s soldiers in the east.
Over the weekend, on June 4, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that Ukrainian forces had launched a “large-scale” assault on five points along the front line in the south-east Donetsk province, one of two regions that make up Donbas.
The assaults were carried out by the 23rd and 31st brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they added, which are units with access to western weaponry, though neither are part of the 12 brigades that have been undergoing extensive Western training.
While Russian claims that they repulsed the attacks, killing 250 soldiers in the process, were denied, many Ukrianians maintained that the offensives themselves did take place.
Western officials, on Monday, told The Economist that this marked the start of the offensive, though the full force of their counter attacks was yet to reach the front line.
Military analysts Professor Michael Clarke, writing for The Sun, agreed that the Ukrainians, having “probed the front lines for weaknesses”, had begun their counter offensive.
He said while they may be “coy” about it, he was certain “Ukraine has started its counter offensive against Russia”.
He added that the destruction on Tuesday of the Kakhovka Dam was a “Russian military attempt to make it difficult for Ukrainians to cross the Dnieper river and take back land in the south”.
However, he also acknowledged that a “traditional offensive” involving “artillery, rocket launchers, tanks and armour rolling across the countryside and liberating towns, very much like at the end of the Second World War”, was yet to come.
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It is believed that Ukraine has 12 offensive brigades, equivalent to between 40,000 and 60,000 soldiers, ready to deploy in their counter attacks.
After months of extensive Western training – some of those soldiers underwent training on British soil – the new outfits are expected to be well-versed in offensive military activity.
They will also be armed with state-of-the-art Western weaponry, including British Challenger 2 and German-made Leopard 2 main battle tanks, as well as long range weaponry such as the Storm Shadow.
These outfits and their new weapons have yet to be spotted on the front lines but it is expected that they will appear in a matter of weeks, if not days.
US officials have told the New York Times that the “flurry of military activity” aligned with the timeframe of the counter offensives provided to them by Ukraine.
While Kyiv is keeping their plans for the attacks a secret, they did provide the US with a “time frame for when they intended to begin the push”.
The anonymous US officials said the weekend’s five-pronged attack correlated with the time frame given to them.
Irrespective of the absence of the 12 western-trained brigades, it is clear the Ukrainian counter offensives have begun.