Ukraine’s President Zelensky has been told that the war against Russia is “unwinnable” and he will have to cede territory to bring about a lasting peace. Ukraine has been embroiled in a grinding war with its larger and more powerful eastern neighbour ever since 2014, when Putin illegally annexed Crimea and helped foment an uprising by pro-Moscow militias in the Donbas. The conflict escalated with a full-blown invasion by Russian forces on February 24, 2022, as the Kremlin sought to topple President Zelensky and his government.
Justifying the attack, the Russian President claimed he sought to “demilitarise and denazify” Ukraine.
Russia’s state-run news agency Ria Novosti explained that “denazification is inevitably also de-Ukrainisation” – thereby implying that the Kremlin was actually seeking to erase the state from the map of the world.
After being forced into humiliating retreats on the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson fronts, Russia’s leader announced the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions at a Kremlin ceremony at the end of September last year.
Putin made his declaration despite the fact that his army was and still is no where near exerting full control over any of the four regions. Ukraine has always insisted that Russian troops must pull back beyond Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders for there to be peace.
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It is backed by two UN resolutions, passed days after the invasion and hours before the first anniversary of the war.
Attention is now focusing on a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is expected to take place within the coming weeks and months.
Hopes are high that Kyiv’s forces can inflict a major defeat on on Putin’s army, opening the path to an eventual victory over Moscow.
However, a British military analyst has cautioned that Ukraine is unlikely to make substantial territorial gains and could be left militarily in a weaker position with its reserves of soldiers and ammunition dangerously depleted.
Sean Bell, a former RAF pilot, argued that everything pointed towards a stalemate and that Kyiv would have to negotiate with Russia.
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This would require the need to cede territory to Moscow and to redraw the borders of the country.
In an article for Sky News, he wrote: “By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
“Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of the special military operation.
“The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
“Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.”
He continued: “Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
“Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
“The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on.
“Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.”